Minnesota Vikings
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
BOOK TB 53%
MODEL TB 55%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 16:05
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 0 – 1 TB
TB -1.5
Vegas line (context)
44.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIN OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
TB OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIN OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +10
#20 +0.07
-0.01 #20
Run game
DEF +17
#3 -0.07
189 #30
Pass yards
even
#27 255
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +18
#5 99
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#18 2.2
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +18
#13 40%
61% #21
Red zone
OFF +11
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +20
#2 -0.15
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +17
#2 178
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#21 124
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +12
#4 2.9
42% #13
3rd down
DEF +10
#3 35%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +17
#2 49%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.9
TB PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #20 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #3 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #20 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #20 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #20 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #20 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #2 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #6 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #2 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #2 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #2 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #2 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.