Houston Texans
@
Indianapolis Colts
DIV
BOOK IND 47%
MODEL IND 50%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· Lucas Oil Stadium
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 6 – 4 IND
HOU -1.5
Vegas line (context)
45.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
IND OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +21
#9 -0.05
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +17
#31 262
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +15
#7 102
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
38% #24
3rd down
even
#26 43%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +26
#5 55%
IND OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +11
#1 -0.19
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#7 205
118 #17
Rush yards
DEF +13
#4 94
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
43% #7
3rd down
even
#7 37%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +9
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 2.8
IND PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #19 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #9 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #19 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #19 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #19 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #19 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #1 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #8 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #1 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #1 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #1 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #1 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.