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Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts ★ DIV · AFC SOUTH ★

Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00 · Lucas Oil Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 6 – 4 IND
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out    IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 48.0% book 47.4%
33%
63%
book is 0.6 pts lower
projected HOU 23 – IND 23 · HOU -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Coltsspread · margin, last 10
IND +1.25
IND +0.6
2/10
at the line
bookINDHOU
DK
CZR
Coltstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
Coltsmoneyline · wins, last 10
47.4%opened -2
ours 48.0%
2/10
IND+0.6 pts vs book
bookINDHOU
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

24 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 13
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
Brevin JordanTEOUTCoach's Decision
10 more · line, defense, specialists
Collin WrightCBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaden CrumedyDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Febechi NwaiwuGOUTCoach's Decision
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Aiden FisherLBOUTCoach's Decision
Braden SmithOTOUTFoot · IR
Nate ThomasOTOUTCoach's Decision
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Jake HummelLBQUESTIONABLEAbdomen
IND · 11
Riley LeonardQBOUTCoach's Decision
DJ GiddensRBOUTCoach's Decision
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEHand
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Johnathan EdwardsCBOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton TuckerGOUTCoach's Decision
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
George Gumbs Jr.LBOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 0.6 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Red zoneHOU offense · IND defense DEF +26 HOU 51% #31 IND #5 55%
IND Run gameHOU offense · IND defense DEF +21 HOU -0.08 #30 IND #9 -0.05
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · IND defense OFF +17 HOU 233 #14 IND #31 262
IND Run block vs frontHOU offense · IND defense FRONT +16 HOU 109 #23 IND #7 102
HOU Run block vs frontIND offense · HOU defense FRONT +14 IND 118 #17 HOU #3 94 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU Pass attackIND offense · HOU defense DEF +11 IND +0.06 #12 HOU #1 -0.19
IND Red zoneIND offense · HOU defense OFF +9 IND 68% #7 HOU #16 63%
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · IND defense LINE +5 HOU 1.8 #10 IND #15 2.3
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
IND Run gameIND offense · HOU defense OFF +5 IND +0.09 #3 HOU #8 -0.05
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · IND defense OFF +4 HOU +0.04 #15 IND #19 +0.04
HOU 3rd downHOU offense · IND defense OFF +2 HOU 38% #24 IND #26 43%
HOU Pass yardsIND offense · HOU defense DEF +1 IND 240 #8 HOU #7 205
HOU 3rd downIND offense · HOU defense DEF +0 IND 43% #7 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass pro vs rushIND offense · HOU defense RUSH +0 IND 1.7 #8 HOU #8 2.8 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

IND DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2025 IND DEFENSE
+0.04 #15 Pass attack even #19 +0.04
-0.08 #30 Run game DEF +21 #9 -0.05
233 #14 Pass yards OFF +17 #31 262
109 #22 Rush yards DEF +15 #7 102
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush even #16 2.3
38% #24 3rd down even #26 43%
51% #31 Red zone DEF +26 #5 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro even INDpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Laiatu Latu DE 8.5 sk#21
Arden Key DE 4.0 sk#97
DeForest Buckner DT 4.0 sk#102
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
HOUrun block front +16 INDrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Arden Key LDE 6.0 tfl#147
Grover Stewart LDT 5.0 tfl#177
DeForest Buckner RDT 9.0 tfl#63
Laiatu Latu RDE 12.0 tfl#24
Jaylon Carlies WLB
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 102