no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q
IND win probability
ours 48.0%
book 47.4%
33%
63%
book is 0.6 pts lower
projected HOU 23 – IND 23 · HOU -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
IND +1.25
IND +0.6
2/10
—at the line
| book | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
47.4%opened -2
ours 48.0%
2/10
IND+0.6 pts vs book
| book | IND | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
24 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 13
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
10 more · line, defense, specialists
| Collin Wright | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaden Crumedy | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Braden Smith | OT | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Nate Thomas | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Jake Hummel | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Abdomen |
IND · 11
| Riley Leonard | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Giddens | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hand |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Johnathan Edwards | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dalton Tucker | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
| George Gumbs Jr. | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 0.6 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Red zoneHOU offense · IND defense
HOU 51% #31
IND #5 55%
IND
Run gameHOU offense · IND defense
HOU -0.08 #30
IND #9 -0.05
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · IND defense
HOU 233 #14
IND #31 262
IND
Run block vs frontHOU offense · IND defense
HOU 109 #23
IND #7 102
HOU
Run block vs frontIND offense · HOU defense
IND 118 #17
HOU #3 94
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU
Pass attackIND offense · HOU defense
IND +0.06 #12
HOU #1 -0.19
IND
Red zoneIND offense · HOU defense
IND 68% #7
HOU #16 63%
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · IND defense
HOU 1.8 #10
IND #15 2.3
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
IND
Run gameIND offense · HOU defense
IND +0.09 #3
HOU #8 -0.05
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · IND defense
HOU +0.04 #15
IND #19 +0.04
HOU
3rd downHOU offense · IND defense
HOU 38% #24
IND #26 43%
HOU
Pass yardsIND offense · HOU defense
IND 240 #8
HOU #7 205
HOU
3rd downIND offense · HOU defense
IND 43% #7
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · HOU defense
IND 1.7 #8
HOU #8 2.8
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2025
IND DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +21
#9 -0.05
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +17
#31 262
109 #22
Rush yards
DEF +15
#7 102
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
38% #24
3rd down
even
#26 43%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +26
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#21
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#97
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#102
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
HOUrun block
front +16
INDrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#147
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#177
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#63
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#24
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 102
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2025
HOU DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +11
#1 -0.19
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#7 205
118 #17
Rush yards
DEF +13
#4 94
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
43% #7
3rd down
even
#7 37%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +9
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
even
HOUpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#24
1.7 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
INDrun block
front +14
HOUrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#158
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#182
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#55
118 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94