Kansas City Chiefs
@
Miami Dolphins
BOOK MIA 25%
MODEL MIA 46%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· Hard Rock Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: KAN 2 – 0 MIA
KAN -7.5
Vegas line (context)
44.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
KAN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
MIA OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
KAN OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +12
#26 +0.13
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +21
#27 +0.04
232 #16
Pass yards
even
#18 231
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#26 132
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
38% #23
3rd down
even
#18 41%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#19 66%
MIA OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
-0.03 #21
Run game
DEF +10
#11 -0.04
195 #25
Pass yards
DEF +17
#8 205
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#9 106
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#26 1.9
35% #26
3rd down
even
#28 44%
64% #14
Red zone
DEF +8
#6 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 1.9
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 2.3
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #26 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #27 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #26 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #26 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #26 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #26 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #15 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #11 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #15 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #15 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #15 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #15 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.