Carolina Panthers
@
Cleveland Browns
BOOK CLE 47%
MODEL CLE 53%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· Huntington Bank Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 0 – 1 CLE
CAR -1.5
Vegas line (context)
39.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CAR OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
CLE OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CAR OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +21
#4 -0.13
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +17
#5 -0.05
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +24
#3 189
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#16 116
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#3 3.1
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +17
#8 37%
59% #24
Red zone
even
#20 66%
CLE OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +8
#24 +0.11
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +17
#14 215
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#20 123
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
even
#28 1.8
34% #28
3rd down
even
#32 48%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +16
#12 60%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 1.8
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 3.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #4 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #5 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #4 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #4 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #4 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #4 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #24 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #24 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #24 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #24 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #24 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #24 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.