New England Patriots
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
BOOK JAC 52%
MODEL JAC 57%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· EverBank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NE 1 – 1 JAC
JAC -1.5
Vegas line (context)
45.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NE OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
JAC OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NE OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
even
#3 -0.14
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +15
#19 231
129 #6
Rush yards
even
#1 86
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
even
#27 1.9
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +11
#17 41%
66% #9
Red zone
OFF +16
#25 68%
JAC OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
-0.01 #18
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#9 207
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +14
#6 102
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
40% #18
3rd down
even
#11 39%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +15
#27 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NE PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.0
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #3 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #13 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #3 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #3 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #3 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #3 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #11 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #15 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #11 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #11 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #11 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #11 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.