New York Jets
@
Detroit Lions
BOOK DET 78%
MODEL DET 76%
Week 3 · 2026-09-27 · 13:00
· Ford Field (dome)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYJ 0 – 1 DET
DET -9.5
Vegas line (context)
45.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
DET OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +14
#14 -0.01
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +11
#18 -0.01
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +11
#21 237
123 #10
Rush yards
even
#14 115
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +24
#5 2.8
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +18
#9 37%
53% #29
Red zone
even
#23 68%
DET OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +28
#32 +0.25
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +13
#16 226
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +15
#29 139
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +13
#31 1.5
39% #20
3rd down
DEF +8
#12 39%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +24
#29 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 1.5
DET PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #14 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #18 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #14 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #14 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #14 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #14 PASS D
— rec y/g
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #32 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #26 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #32 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #32 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #32 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #32 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.