BallKnowMe
More
NFL
1–1 · 50% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 · Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 1 – 0 TEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Cole Payton QB out · Tanner McKee QB out · Elijah Moore WR out · Johnny Wilson WR out · Eli Stowers TE out · Grant Calcaterra TE out    TEN Nicholas Singleton RB out · Jaren Kanak TE out
TEN win probability
ours 32.9% book 33.1%
18%
48%
book is 0.2 pts higher
projected PHI 24 – TEN 18 · PHI -5.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Titansspread · margin, last 10
TEN +7opened +4.5
TEN +5.8
4/9
at the line
bookTENPHI
CZR
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
Titanstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5opened 42
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
SCORE
FD
DK
MGM
CZR
Titansmoneyline · wins, last 10
33.1%opened +175
ours 32.9%
2/10
PHI−0.2 pts vs book
bookTENPHI
FD
SCORE
CZR
MGM
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

25 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PHI · 11
Cole PaytonQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tanner McKeeQBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah MooreWROUTCoach's Decision
Johnny WilsonWROUTKnee · IR
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
Grant CalcaterraTEOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Micah MorrisGOUTCoach's Decision
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR
Marcus EppsSQUESTIONABLEShoulder
TEN · 14
Nicholas SingletonRBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaren KanakTEOUTPectoral · IR
12 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jackie MarshallDTOUTCoach's Decision
Atonio MafiGOUTCoach's Decision
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jaylen HarrellLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Owen PappoeLBOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon Crenshaw-DicksonOTOUTCoach's Decision
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 0.2 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI Red zonePHI offense · TEN defense OFF +28 PHI 74% #2 TEN #30 71%
PHI Pass attackTEN offense · PHI defense DEF +26 TEN -0.22 #31 PHI #5 -0.12
PHI Pass yardsTEN offense · PHI defense DEF +23 TEN 191 #29 PHI #6 204
PHI Pass attackPHI offense · TEN defense OFF +16 PHI +0.04 #13 TEN #29 +0.17
PHI Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · PHI defense RUSH +16 TEN 3.3 #27 PHI #11 2.5
PHI Run gameTEN offense · PHI defense DEF +11 TEN -0.06 #27 PHI #16 -0.02
PHI 3rd downTEN offense · PHI defense DEF +10 TEN 32% #32 PHI #22 42%
PHI Red zoneTEN offense · PHI defense DEF +10 TEN 61% #20 PHI #10 59%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
PHI Run gamePHI offense · TEN defense OFF +9 PHI +0.01 #14 TEN #23 +0.02
PHI Run block vs frontTEN offense · PHI defense FRONT +8 TEN 93 #30 PHI #22 124
TEN Run block vs frontPHI offense · TEN defense FRONT +4 PHI 117 #18 TEN #14 115 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
PHI Pass yardsPHI offense · TEN defense OFF +3 PHI 206 #23 TEN #26 248
TEN 3rd downPHI offense · TEN defense DEF +0 PHI 38% #21 TEN #21 42%
TEN Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · TEN defense RUSH +0 PHI 2.1 #12 TEN #12 2.5 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

TEN DEFENSE PHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PHI offense against what it runs into

PHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC TEN DEFENSE

PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.

+0.04 #13 Pass attack OFF +16 #29 +0.17
+0.01 #14 Run game OFF +9 #23 +0.02
206 #23 Pass yards even #26 248
117 #18 Rush yards even #15 115
2.1 #12 Pass pro vs rush even #13 2.5
38% #21 3rd down even #21 42%
74% #2 Red zone OFF +28 #30 71%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PHIpass pro even TENpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE 7.5 sk#33
Jacob Martin DE 5.5 sk#66
2.1 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.5
PHIrun block even TENrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
John Franklin-Myers LDE 6.0 tfl#132
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT 1.0 tfl#631
Jermaine Johnson II RDE 5.0 tfl#163
Cedric Gray WLB 7.0 tfl#105
117 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 115