no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Cole Payton QB out · Tanner McKee QB out · Elijah Moore WR out · Johnny Wilson WR out · Eli Stowers TE out · Grant Calcaterra TE out TEN Nicholas Singleton RB out · Jaren Kanak TE out
TEN win probability
ours 32.9%
book 33.1%
18%
48%
book is 0.2 pts higher
projected PHI 24 – TEN 18 · PHI -5.8 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TEN +7opened +4.5
TEN +5.8
4/9
—at the line
| book | TEN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| SCORE |
42.5opened 42
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| FD | ||
| DK | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR |
33.1%opened +175
ours 32.9%
2/10
PHI−0.2 pts vs book
| book | TEN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| MGM | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
25 designations · as of 8:00 PM
PHI · 11
| Cole Payton | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner McKee | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Moore | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Johnny Wilson | WR | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
| Grant Calcaterra | TE | OUT | Back · IR |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Micah Morris | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Marcus Epps | S | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
TEN · 14
| Nicholas Singleton | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaren Kanak | TE | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
12 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jackie Marshall | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Atonio Mafi | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jaylen Harrell | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Owen Pappoe | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 0.2 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · TEN defense
PHI 74% #2
TEN #30 71%
PHI
Pass attackTEN offense · PHI defense
TEN -0.22 #31
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Pass yardsTEN offense · PHI defense
TEN 191 #29
PHI #6 204
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · TEN defense
PHI +0.04 #13
TEN #29 +0.17
PHI
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · PHI defense
TEN 3.3 #27
PHI #11 2.5
PHI
Run gameTEN offense · PHI defense
TEN -0.06 #27
PHI #16 -0.02
PHI
3rd downTEN offense · PHI defense
TEN 32% #32
PHI #22 42%
PHI
Red zoneTEN offense · PHI defense
TEN 61% #20
PHI #10 59%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · TEN defense
PHI +0.01 #14
TEN #23 +0.02
PHI
Run block vs frontTEN offense · PHI defense
TEN 93 #30
PHI #22 124
TEN
Run block vs frontPHI offense · TEN defense
PHI 117 #18
TEN #14 115
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
PHI
Pass yardsPHI offense · TEN defense
PHI 206 #23
TEN #26 248
TEN
3rd downPHI offense · TEN defense
PHI 38% #21
TEN #21 42%
TEN
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · TEN defense
PHI 2.1 #12
TEN #12 2.5
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +16
#29 +0.17
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +9
#23 +0.02
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#26 248
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#15 115
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
38% #21
3rd down
even
#21 42%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +28
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
TENpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#33
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#66
2.1 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.5
PHIrun block
even
TENrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#132
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#631
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#163
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#105
117 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#14 115
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
PHI DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +26
#5 -0.12
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +11
#16 -0.02
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +23
#6 204
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +8
#22 124
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#12 2.5
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +10
#22 42%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +10
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
rush +16
PHIpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#49
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#52
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#81
3.3 #27sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.5
TENrun block
front +8
PHIrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#203
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#138
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#522
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#121
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#452
93 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 124