Cleveland Browns
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
BOOK TB 69%
MODEL TB 65%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: CLE 1 – 0 TB
TB -6.0
Vegas line (context)
42.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CLE OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
TB OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CLE OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +12
#20 +0.07
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +22
#3 -0.07
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#27 255
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +22
#5 99
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#18 2.2
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +15
#13 40%
55% #28
Red zone
even
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +18
#4 -0.13
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
221 #19
Pass yards
DEF +16
#3 189
115 #21
Rush yards
even
#16 116
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#3 3.1
42% #13
3rd down
even
#8 37%
62% #19
Red zone
even
#20 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 3.1
TB PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #20 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #3 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #20 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #20 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #20 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #20 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #4 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #5 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #4 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #4 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #4 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #4 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.