no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz CHI Miller Moss QB out · Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 52%
book 60%
41%
71%
book is 8 pts higher
projected MIN 21 – CHI 22 · CHI -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CHI -5.5opened -3.25
CHI −0.6
3/10
—at the line
| book | CHI | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| MGM |
45.5opened 45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| MGM |
60.4%opened -198
ours 51.7%
7/10
MIN−8.6 pts vs book
| book | CHI | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| MGM | ||
| FD | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 11
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nick Samac | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zemaiah Vaughn | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Caleb Tiernan | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jakobe Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
CHI · 11
| Miller Moss | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Jamree Kromah | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jonathan Garvin | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jayden Loving | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jordan McFadden | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 8.6 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · MIN defense
CHI 144 #3
MIN #21 124
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
CHI
3rd downMIN offense · CHI defense
MIN 32% #31
CHI #19 41%
CHI
Pass attackMIN offense · CHI defense
MIN -0.19 #30
CHI #18 +0.03
MIN
Pass yardsCHI offense · MIN defense
CHI 235 #12
MIN #2 178
CHI
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · CHI defense
MIN 3.5 #31
CHI #22 2.1
MIN
3rd downCHI offense · MIN defense
CHI 43% #11
MIN #3 35%
MIN
Pass attackCHI offense · MIN defense
CHI +0.08 #10
MIN #2 -0.15
CHI
Pass yardsMIN offense · CHI defense
MIN 189 #30
CHI #22 239
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
MIN
Red zoneCHI offense · MIN defense
CHI 66% #10
MIN #2 49%
CHI
Red zoneMIN offense · CHI defense
MIN 61% #21
CHI #18 65%
MIN
Run block vs frontMIN offense · CHI defense
MIN 108 #24
CHI #27 135
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #14
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · MIN defense
CHI +0.08 #4
MIN #6 -0.05
CHI
Run gameMIN offense · CHI defense
MIN -0.01 #20
CHI #19 +0.00
MIN
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · MIN defense
CHI 1.4 #4
MIN #4 2.9
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2025
CHI DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +12
#18 +0.03
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +8
#22 239
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#27 135
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#22 2.1
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +12
#19 41%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +9
CHIpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#16
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#84
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#117
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.1
MINrun block
even
CHIrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#14
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#609
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#307
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#405
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#98
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 135
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
MIN DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
DEF +8
#2 -0.15
+0.08 #4
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
235 #12
Pass yards
DEF +10
#2 178
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +18
#21 124
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
even
#4 2.9
43% #11
3rd down
DEF +8
#3 35%
66% #10
Red zone
DEF +8
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
even
MINpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#35
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#48
1.4 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
CHIrun block
line +18
MINrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#86
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#20
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
144 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124