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Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 · Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 8 – 2 CHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz    CHI Miller Moss QB out · Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 52% book 60%
41%
71%
book is 8 pts higher
projected MIN 21 – CHI 22 · CHI -0.6 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bearsspread · margin, last 10
CHI -5.5opened -3.25
CHI −0.6
3/10
at the line
bookCHIMIN
FD
SCORE
CZR
DK
MGM
Bearstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5opened 45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
CZR
DK
MGM
Bearsmoneyline · wins, last 10
60.4%opened -198
ours 51.7%
7/10
MIN−8.6 pts vs book
bookCHIMIN
SCORE
MGM
FD
CZR
DK
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 11
J.J. McCarthyQBOUTCoach's Decision
Demond ClaiborneRBOUTCoach's Decision
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nick SamacCOUTCoach's Decision
Zemaiah VaughnCBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Caleb TiernanOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jakobe ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision
CHI · 11
Miller MossQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Jamree KromahDEOUTCoach's Decision
Jonathan GarvinDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Jayden LovingDTOUTCoach's Decision
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Jordan McFaddenGOUTCoach's Decision
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 8.6 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · MIN defense LINE +18 CHI 144 #3 MIN #21 124 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
CHI 3rd downMIN offense · CHI defense DEF +12 MIN 32% #31 CHI #19 41%
CHI Pass attackMIN offense · CHI defense DEF +12 MIN -0.19 #30 CHI #18 +0.03
MIN Pass yardsCHI offense · MIN defense DEF +10 CHI 235 #12 MIN #2 178
CHI Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · CHI defense RUSH +9 MIN 3.5 #31 CHI #22 2.1
MIN 3rd downCHI offense · MIN defense DEF +8 CHI 43% #11 MIN #3 35%
MIN Pass attackCHI offense · MIN defense DEF +8 CHI +0.08 #10 MIN #2 -0.15
CHI Pass yardsMIN offense · CHI defense DEF +8 MIN 189 #30 CHI #22 239
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
MIN Red zoneCHI offense · MIN defense DEF +8 CHI 66% #10 MIN #2 49%
CHI Red zoneMIN offense · CHI defense DEF +3 MIN 61% #21 CHI #18 65%
MIN Run block vs frontMIN offense · CHI defense LINE +3 MIN 108 #24 CHI #27 135 Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #14
CHI Run gameCHI offense · MIN defense OFF +2 CHI +0.08 #4 MIN #6 -0.05
CHI Run gameMIN offense · CHI defense DEF +1 MIN -0.01 #20 CHI #19 +0.00
MIN Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · MIN defense RUSH +0 CHI 1.4 #4 MIN #4 2.9

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CHI DEFENSE MIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIN offense against what it runs into

MIN OFFENSE 2025 CHI DEFENSE
-0.19 #30 Pass attack DEF +12 #18 +0.03
-0.01 #20 Run game even #19 +0.00
189 #30 Pass yards DEF +8 #22 239
108 #23 Rush yards even #27 135
3.5 #31 Pass pro vs rush DEF +9 #22 2.1
32% #31 3rd down DEF +12 #19 41%
61% #21 Red zone even #18 65%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MINpass pro rush +9 CHIpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk#16
Austin Booker DE 4.5 sk#84
Neville Gallimore DT 3.5 sk#117
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.1
MINrun block even CHIrun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#14
Grady Jarrett LDT 1.0 tfl#609
Kentavius Street RDT 3.0 tfl#307
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE 2.0 tfl#405
Devin Bush WLB 7.0 tfl#98
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 135