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Week 2 · 2026-09-21 · 20:15 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 0 – 2 LAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
NYG Najee Harris RB out → Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Dalen Cambre WR out · Thomas Fidone II TE out    LAR Davis Allen TE q
LAR win probability
ours 73% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 20 – LAR 28 · LAR -8.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ramsspread · margin, last 10
LAR -9.5opened -8.5
LAR −8.0
4/10
at the line
bookLARNYG
DK
CZR
FD
Ramstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5opened 49
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
CZR
DK
FD
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 8:00 PM
NYG · 9
Najee HarrisRBOUTCoach's Decision
Next up: Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB3 · 12 car · 49 rush yds · 3 tgt · 54% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Harris: 5 car · 20 rush yds · 1 tgt · 22% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Dalen CambreWROUTCoach's Decision
Thomas Fidone IITEOUTCoach's Decision
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Korie BlackCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nic JonesCBOUTCoach's Decision
Bobby Jamison-TravisDTOUTCoach's Decision
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR
J.C. DavisOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jason PinnockSOUTCoach's Decision
LAR · 2
Davis AllenTEQUESTIONABLEHead
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Run gameLAR offense · NYG defense OFF +25 LAR +0.03 #7 NYG #32 +0.17
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · NYG defense LINE +24 LAR 126 #7 NYG #31 145 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · NYG defense OFF +16 LAR 68% #6 NYG #22 68%
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · NYG defense LINE +15 LAR 1.1 #1 NYG #16 2.2 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · NYG defense OFF +15 LAR 277 #2 NYG #17 230
LAR Red zoneNYG offense · LAR defense DEF +15 NYG 59% #23 LAR #8 56%
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · NYG defense OFF +14 LAR +0.23 #2 NYG #16 +0.03
NYG Run block vs frontNYG offense · LAR defense LINE +13 NYG 129 #5 LAR #18 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
LAR 3rd downNYG offense · LAR defense DEF +11 NYG 40% #17 LAR #6 36%
LAR Pass attackNYG offense · LAR defense DEF +9 NYG -0.01 #19 LAR #10 -0.07
NYG Run gameNYG offense · LAR defense OFF +7 NYG +0.04 #5 LAR #12 -0.04
LAR Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · LAR defense RUSH +5 NYG 2.8 #23 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9
NYG 3rd downLAR offense · NYG defense DEF +2 LAR 40% #16 NYG #14 40%
LAR Pass yardsNYG offense · LAR defense DEF +1 NYG 218 #21 LAR #20 235

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

LAR DEFENSE NYG OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYG offense against what it runs into

NYG OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 LAR DEFENSE

NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.

-0.01 #19 Pass attack DEF +9 #10 -0.07
+0.04 #5 Run game even #12 -0.04
218 #21 Pass yards even #20 235
129 #5 Rush yards even #12 111
2.8 #23 Pass pro vs rush DEF +14 #9 2.8
40% #17 3rd down DEF +11 #6 36%
59% #23 Red zone DEF +15 #8 56%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYGpass pro even LARpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB 12.0 sk#9
Kobie Turner DE 7.0 sk#37
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
NYGrun block line +13 LARrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Kobie Turner LDE 9.0 tfl#56
Poona Ford NT 4.0 tfl#212
Aaron Donald RDE
Byron Young WLB 12.0 tfl#22
Nate Landman LILB 8.0 tfl#82
129 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120