no sides on this game yet · the record
NYG Najee Harris RB out → Tyrone Tracy Jr. · Dalen Cambre WR out · Thomas Fidone II TE out LAR Davis Allen TE q
LAR win probability
ours 73%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 20 – LAR 28 · LAR -8.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAR -9.5opened -8.5
LAR −8.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | LAR | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
48.5opened 49
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| FD |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 8:00 PM
NYG · 9
| Najee Harris | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
|
Next up: Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB3 · 12 car · 49 rush yds · 3 tgt · 54% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Harris: 5 car · 20 rush yds · 1 tgt · 22% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
| |||
| Dalen Cambre | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Thomas Fidone II | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Korie Black | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nic Jones | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Bobby Jamison-Travis | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
| J.C. Davis | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jason Pinnock | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
LAR · 2
| Davis Allen | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Head |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · NYG defense
LAR +0.03 #7
NYG #32 +0.17
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · NYG defense
LAR 126 #7
NYG #31 145
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · NYG defense
LAR 68% #6
NYG #22 68%
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · NYG defense
LAR 1.1 #1
NYG #16 2.2
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · NYG defense
LAR 277 #2
NYG #17 230
LAR
Red zoneNYG offense · LAR defense
NYG 59% #23
LAR #8 56%
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · NYG defense
LAR +0.23 #2
NYG #16 +0.03
NYG
Run block vs frontNYG offense · LAR defense
NYG 129 #5
LAR #18 120
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
LAR
3rd downNYG offense · LAR defense
NYG 40% #17
LAR #6 36%
LAR
Pass attackNYG offense · LAR defense
NYG -0.01 #19
LAR #10 -0.07
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · LAR defense
NYG +0.04 #5
LAR #12 -0.04
LAR
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · LAR defense
NYG 2.8 #23
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9
NYG
3rd downLAR offense · NYG defense
LAR 40% #16
NYG #14 40%
LAR
Pass yardsNYG offense · LAR defense
NYG 218 #21
LAR #20 235
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
DEF +9
#10 -0.07
+0.04 #5
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
218 #21
Pass yards
even
#20 235
129 #5
Rush yards
even
#12 111
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#9 2.8
40% #17
3rd down
DEF +11
#6 36%
59% #23
Red zone
DEF +15
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
even
LARpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#9
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#37
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
NYGrun block
line +13
LARrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#56
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#212
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#22
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#82
129 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +14
#16 +0.03
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +25
#32 +0.17
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +15
#17 230
127 #7
Rush yards
OFF +24
#31 145
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#17 2.2
40% #16
3rd down
even
#14 40%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +16
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +15
NYGpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#104
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#118
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
LARrun block
line +24
NYGrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#105
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#167
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#31 145