no sides on this game yet · the record
CIN Ke'Shawn Williams WR out · Jack Endries TE out HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out
HOU win probability
ours 67%
book 57%
47%
77%
book is 10 pts lower
projected CIN 20 – HOU 26 · HOU -5.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
HOU -2.5
HOU −5.9
7/9
—at the line
| book | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR |
45.5opened 46.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR |
57.2%opened -140
ours 67.3%
9/10
HOU+10.1 pts vs book
| book | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CIN · 9
| Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jack Endries | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Connor Lew | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Josh Newton | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Landon Robinson | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Myles Hinton | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
HOU · 13
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
10 more · line, defense, specialists
| Collin Wright | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaden Crumedy | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Braden Smith | OT | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Nate Thomas | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Jake Hummel | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Abdomen |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 10.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU
Run block vs frontCIN offense · HOU defense
CIN 94 #29
HOU #3 94
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU
Pass attackCIN offense · HOU defense
CIN -0.03 #23
HOU #1 -0.19
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · HOU defense
CIN 76% #1
HOU #16 63%
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · CIN defense
HOU 1.8 #10
CIN #24 2.0
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · CIN defense
HOU +0.04 #15
CIN #28 +0.16
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · CIN defense
HOU 233 #14
CIN #25 246
HOU
Run block vs frontHOU offense · CIN defense
HOU 109 #23
CIN #32 147
HOU
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · HOU defense
CIN 2.1 #14
HOU #8 2.8
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
CIN
Red zoneHOU offense · CIN defense
HOU 51% #31
CIN #26 69%
HOU
3rd downHOU offense · CIN defense
HOU 38% #24
CIN #27 44%
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · HOU defense
CIN 44% #5
HOU #7 37%
CIN
Run gameHOU offense · CIN defense
HOU -0.08 #30
CIN #29 +0.09
HOU
Pass yardsCIN offense · HOU defense
CIN 250 #7
HOU #7 205
HOU
Run gameCIN offense · HOU defense
CIN +0.02 #8
HOU #8 -0.05
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2025
HOU DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +22
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#7 205
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +25
#4 94
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
44% #5
3rd down
even
#7 37%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +15
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
even
HOUpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#20
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
CINrun block
front +26
HOUrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#127
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#176
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#51
94 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2025
CIN DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +13
#28 +0.16
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +11
#25 246
109 #22
Rush yards
OFF +10
#32 147
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#24 2.0
38% #24
3rd down
even
#27 44%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
line +14
CINpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#64
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#95
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#122
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 2.0
HOUrun block
line +9
CINrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#268
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#232
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#108
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#147
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#256
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 147