Cincinnati Bengals
@
Houston Texans
BOOK HOU 55%
MODEL HOU 69%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00
· Reliant Stadium
· astroturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 0 – 1 HOU
HOU -2.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
CIN OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
HOU OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
CIN OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +22
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#7 205
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +25
#4 94
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
44% #5
3rd down
even
#7 37%
76% #1
Red zone
OFF +15
#16 63%
HOU OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +13
#28 +0.16
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#29 +0.09
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +11
#25 246
109 #22
Rush yards
OFF +10
#32 147
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#23 2.0
38% #24
3rd down
even
#27 44%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.0
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #1 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #8 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #1 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #1 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #1 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #1 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #28 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #29 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #28 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #28 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #28 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #28 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.