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Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 · Reliant Stadium · astroturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CIN 0 – 1 HOU
no sides on this game yet · the record
CIN Ke'Shawn Williams WR out · Jack Endries TE out    HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out
HOU win probability
ours 67% book 57%
47%
77%
book is 10 pts lower
projected CIN 20 – HOU 26 · HOU -5.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Texansspread · margin, last 10
HOU -2.5
HOU −5.9
7/9
at the line
bookHOUCIN
SCORE
DK
FD
MGM
CZR
Texanstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5opened 46.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
FD
MGM
SCORE
CZR
Texansmoneyline · wins, last 10
57.2%opened -140
ours 67.3%
9/10
HOU+10.1 pts vs book
bookHOUCIN
SCORE
DK
CZR
FD
MGM
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
CIN · 9
Ke'Shawn WilliamsWROUTCoach's Decision
Jack EndriesTEOUTCoach's Decision
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Connor LewCOUTCoach's Decision
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Josh NewtonCBOUTCoach's Decision
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Landon RobinsonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Myles HintonOTOUTCoach's Decision
HOU · 13
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
Brevin JordanTEOUTCoach's Decision
10 more · line, defense, specialists
Collin WrightCBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaden CrumedyDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Febechi NwaiwuGOUTCoach's Decision
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Aiden FisherLBOUTCoach's Decision
Braden SmithOTOUTFoot · IR
Nate ThomasOTOUTCoach's Decision
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Jake HummelLBQUESTIONABLEAbdomen

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 10.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Run block vs frontCIN offense · HOU defense FRONT +26 CIN 94 #29 HOU #3 94 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU Pass attackCIN offense · HOU defense DEF +22 CIN -0.03 #23 HOU #1 -0.19
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · HOU defense OFF +15 CIN 76% #1 HOU #16 63%
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · CIN defense LINE +14 HOU 1.8 #10 CIN #24 2.0
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · CIN defense OFF +13 HOU +0.04 #15 CIN #28 +0.16
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · CIN defense OFF +11 HOU 233 #14 CIN #25 246
HOU Run block vs frontHOU offense · CIN defense LINE +9 HOU 109 #23 CIN #32 147
HOU Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · HOU defense RUSH +6 CIN 2.1 #14 HOU #8 2.8 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
CIN Red zoneHOU offense · CIN defense DEF +5 HOU 51% #31 CIN #26 69%
HOU 3rd downHOU offense · CIN defense OFF +3 HOU 38% #24 CIN #27 44%
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · HOU defense OFF +2 CIN 44% #5 HOU #7 37%
CIN Run gameHOU offense · CIN defense DEF +1 HOU -0.08 #30 CIN #29 +0.09
HOU Pass yardsCIN offense · HOU defense DEF +0 CIN 250 #7 HOU #7 205
HOU Run gameCIN offense · HOU defense DEF +0 CIN +0.02 #8 HOU #8 -0.05

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

HOU DEFENSE CIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Pass-heavy · 35% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CIN offense against what it runs into

CIN OFFENSE 2025 HOU DEFENSE
-0.03 #23 Pass attack DEF +22 #1 -0.19
+0.02 #8 Run game even #8 -0.05
250 #7 Pass yards even #7 205
94 #29 Rush yards DEF +25 #4 94
2.1 #14 Pass pro vs rush even #7 2.8
44% #5 3rd down even #7 37%
76% #1 Red zone OFF +15 #16 63%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CINpass pro even HOUpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB 8.5 sk#20
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
CINrun block front +26 HOUrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT 6.0 tfl#127
Sheldon Rankins RDT 5.0 tfl#176
Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB 9.0 tfl#51
94 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94