Miami Dolphins
@
San Francisco 49ers
BOOK SF 81%
MODEL SF 67%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 16:25
· Levi's Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIA 1 – 1 SF
SF -10.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIA OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
SF OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIA OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#25 +0.11
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#22 +0.01
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#23 242
120 #13
Rush yards
even
#11 108
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +15
#32 1.2
35% #26
3rd down
even
#20 41%
64% #14
Red zone
even
#14 62%
SF OFFENSE
vs
MIA DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
OFF +19
#26 +0.13
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +10
#27 +0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +12
#18 231
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#26 132
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#16 2.3
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +17
#18 41%
68% #8
Red zone
OFF +11
#19 66%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIA PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sacks '25
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sacks '25
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.3
SF PASS RUSH
vs
MIA PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
2.2 #17
sacks allowed /g
#16 1.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIA
Malik Willis QB
2025: GB
vs #25 PASS D
105.5 pass y/g 2/4
De'Von Achane RB
vs #22 RUN D
84.4 rush y/g 4/10
Malik Washington WR1
vs #25 PASS D
18.6 rec y/g 5/10
Jalen Tolbert WR2
2025: DAL
vs #25 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 4/10
Tutu Atwell WR3
2025: LAR
vs #25 PASS D
24.0 rec y/g 2/8
Greg Dulcich TE
vs #25 PASS D
37.2 rec y/g 5/9
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #26 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #27 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #26 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #26 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #26 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #26 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.