Jacksonville Jaguars
@
Denver Broncos
BOOK DEN 56%
MODEL DEN 54%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 16:05
· Empower Field at Mile High (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: JAC 1 – 2 DEN
DEN -2.5
Vegas line (context)
43.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
JAC OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
DEN OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
JAC OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
-0.01 #18
Run game
DEF +8
#10 -0.04
237 #11
Pass yards
even
#11 212
115 #20
Rush yards
DEF +18
#2 91
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +19
#1 4.0
40% #18
3rd down
DEF +16
#2 34%
65% #12
Red zone
DEF +11
#1 48%
DEN OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#3 -0.14
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#19 231
119 #16
Rush yards
DEF +15
#1 86
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +26
#27 1.9
43% #9
3rd down
OFF +8
#17 41%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +9
#25 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 1.9
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 4.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #6 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #10 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #6 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #6 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #6 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #6 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #3 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #13 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #3 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #3 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #3 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #3 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.