Pittsburgh Steelers
@
New England Patriots
BOOK NE 66%
MODEL NE 62%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00
· Gillette Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 1 – 2 NE
NE -4.5
Vegas line (context)
43.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PIT OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
NE OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PIT OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
214 #22
Pass yards
DEF +13
#9 207
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +20
#6 102
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#25 2.0
41% #14
3rd down
even
#11 39%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +16
#27 69%
NE OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
OFF +16
#17 +0.03
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
262 #4
Pass yards
OFF +26
#30 261
129 #6
Rush yards
even
#13 113
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +18
#6 2.8
44% #6
3rd down
OFF +19
#25 43%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#9 58%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.8
NE PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #11 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #15 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #11 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #11 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #11 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #11 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #17 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #20 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #17 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #17 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #17 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #17 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.