Indianapolis Colts
@
Kansas City Chiefs
BOOK KAN 71%
MODEL KAN 56%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 20:20
· GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 1 – 1 KAN
KAN -6.5
Vegas line (context)
47.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
IND OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
KAN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
IND OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
even
#15 -0.00
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +8
#11 -0.04
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#8 205
118 #17
Rush yards
DEF +8
#9 106
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#26 1.9
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +21
#28 44%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#6 55%
KAN OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.03 #6
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
232 #16
Pass yards
OFF +15
#31 262
107 #25
Rush yards
DEF +18
#7 102
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#15 2.3
38% #23
3rd down
even
#26 43%
58% #25
Red zone
DEF +20
#5 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
IND PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 2.3
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #15 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #11 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #15 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #15 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #15 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #15 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #19 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #9 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #19 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #19 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #19 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #19 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.