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Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CAR 6 – 4 ATL
no sides on this game yet · the record · lines as of 10:30 AM Sep 14 · projections as of 12:00 AM
CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette    ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out
ATL win probability
ours 48% book 50%
34%
64%
book is 2 pts higher
projected CAR 23 – ATL 22 · CAR -0.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Falconsspread · margin, last 10
ATL +1.5opened -2
ATL +0.7
5/10
at the line
bookATLCAR
MGM
CZR
DK
FD
SCORE
Falconstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5opened 43
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
MGM
CZR
DK
Falconsmoneyline · wins, last 10
50.4%opened -127
ours 47.9%
5/10
CAR−2.5 pts vs book
bookATLCAR
DK
SCORE
CZR
FD
MGM
Touchdownslinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Touchdowns
Anytime TD4
Bijan RobinsonATL · RB
67%
46%
6/10
-21 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
Chuba HubbardCAR · RB
53%
31%
2/10
-22 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · WR
36%
30%
4/10
-6 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
Drake LondonATL · WR
34%
29%
5/10
-5 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK

Injury report

9 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion

Our numbers vs the book

4 legs priced · moneyline 2.5 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
1Anytime TD Chuba Hubbard CAR 31%53% 22.9bookpoisson
2Anytime TD Bijan Robinson ATL 46%67% 21.1bookpoisson
3Anytime TD Tetairoa McMillan CAR 30%36% 6.7bookpoisson
4Anytime TD Drake London ATL 29%34% 5.2bookpoisson
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · CAR defense LINE +23 ATL 125 #9 CAR #32 148
ATL Pass pro vs rushATL offense · CAR defense LINE +20 ATL 1.9 #9 CAR #29 1.8
ATL Pass attackCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +12 CAR -0.05 #25 ATL #13 -0.03
ATL Pass yardsCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +12 CAR 194 #27 ATL #15 222
ATL Red zoneCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +11 CAR 59% #24 ATL #13 62%
ATL 3rd downCAR offense · ATL defense DEF +10 CAR 36% #25 ATL #15 40%
ATL Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · ATL defense RUSH +8 CAR 2.0 #13 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
CAR Pass yardsATL offense · CAR defense DEF +6 ATL 218 #20 CAR #14 215
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
ATL Pass attackATL offense · CAR defense OFF +3 ATL -0.01 #21 CAR #24 +0.11
CAR Run gameCAR offense · ATL defense OFF +3 CAR -0.03 #22 ATL #25 +0.03
ATL 3rd downATL offense · CAR defense OFF +2 ATL 34% #30 CAR #32 48%
CAR Red zoneATL offense · CAR defense DEF +1 ATL 65% #13 CAR #12 60%
CAR Run block vs frontCAR offense · ATL defense LINE +1 CAR 117 #15 ATL #16 116
ATL Run gameATL offense · CAR defense OFF +1 ATL -0.03 #23 CAR #24 +0.02

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

ATL DEFENSE CAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CAR offense against what it runs into

CAR OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 ATL DEFENSE
-0.05 #25 Pass attack DEF +12 #13 -0.03
-0.03 #22 Run game even #25 +0.03
194 #27 Pass yards DEF +12 #15 222
116 #19 Rush yards even #24 126
2.1 #13 Pass pro vs rush DEF +11 #2 3.4
36% #25 3rd down DEF +10 #15 40%
59% #24 Red zone DEF +11 #13 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CARpass pro rush +8 ATLpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE 8.5 sk#23
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT 6.0 sk#52
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
CARrun block even ATLrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling
LaCale London LDE 7.0 tfl#96
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT 6.0 tfl#128
Brandon Dorlus RDE 11.0 tfl#28
Za'Darius Smith WLB 2.0 tfl#368
Kendal Daniels LILB
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116