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Week 2 · 2026-09-17 · 20:15 · Highmark Stadium · outdoors · a_turf
60° · 1 mph NNE · gust 2 · 0% · scattered clouds · forecast, not a model input · Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 0 – 2 BUF
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out    BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 58.8% book 60.0%
44%
74%
book is 1.2 pts higher
projected DET 24 – BUF 27 · BUF -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Billsspread · margin, last 10
BUF -3.5opened -3
BUF −2.9
6/10
at the line
bookBUFDET
CZR
FD
MGM
SCORE
DK
Billstotal · points in the game, last 10
51.5opened 52.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
SCORE
MGM
CZR
DK
FD
Billsmoneyline · wins, last 10
60.0%opened -159
ours 58.8%
7/10
DET−1.1 pts vs book
bookBUFDET
DK
MGM
CZR
SCORE
FD
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

21 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DET · 10
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Ahmed HassaneinDEOUTCoach's Decision
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Mekhi WingoDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy RolderLBOUTCoach's Decision
Giovanni ManuOTOUTKnee
Christian IzienSOUTGroin
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEKnee
BUF · 11
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Skyler BellWROUTCoach's Decision
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
Mike DannaDEOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
Zane DurantDTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGOUTCoach's Decision
Jude BowryOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jalon KilgoreSOUTCoach's Decision
Jedrick Wills Jr.OTQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 1.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · DET defense OFF +20 BUF 72% #3 DET #23 68%
DET Red zoneDET offense · BUF defense OFF +19 DET 70% #5 BUF #24 68%
BUF Run gameBUF offense · DET defense OFF +17 BUF +0.11 #1 DET #18 -0.01
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · BUF defense LINE +14 DET 120 #14 BUF #28 136
DET Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · DET defense RUSH +13 BUF 2.4 #19 DET #6 2.8 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · DET defense LINE +12 BUF 160 #1 DET #13 115 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · DET defense OFF +8 BUF +0.16 #6 DET #14 -0.01
BUF Pass yardsBUF offense · DET defense OFF +8 BUF 234 #13 DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · DET defense OFF +6 BUF 46% #3 DET #9 37%
DET Run gameDET offense · BUF defense OFF +6 DET -0.04 #24 BUF #30 +0.09
DET 3rd downDET offense · BUF defense OFF +4 DET 39% #20 BUF #24 42%
DET Pass attackDET offense · BUF defense OFF +3 DET +0.17 #4 BUF #7 -0.11
BUF Pass yardsDET offense · BUF defense DEF +2 DET 269 #3 BUF #1 170
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · BUF defense LINE +1 DET 2.3 #18 BUF #19 2.1

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BUF DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC BUF DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack even #7 -0.11
-0.04 #24 Run game even #30 +0.09
269 #3 Pass yards even #1 170
120 #14 Rush yards OFF +14 #28 136
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush even #19 2.1
39% #20 3rd down even #24 42%
70% #5 Red zone OFF +19 #24 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro even BUFpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Bradley Chubb OLB 8.5 sk#22
Greg Rousseau LB 7.0 sk#41
Ed Oliver DT 3.0 sk#157
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
DETrun block line +14 BUFrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
T.J. Sanders LDE 1.0 tfl#474
Deone Walker NT 8.0 tfl#79
Ed Oliver RDE 7.0 tfl#92
Greg Rousseau WLB 6.0 tfl#144
Dorian Williams LILB 1.0 tfl#538
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136