Detroit Lions
@
Buffalo Bills
BOOK BUF 58%
MODEL BUF 57%
Week 2 · 2026-09-17 · 20:15
· Highmark Stadium (outdoors)
· a_turf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 0 – 2 BUF
BUF -3.0
Vegas line (context)
52.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DET OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
BUF OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DET OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#30 +0.09
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#1 170
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +14
#28 136
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
39% #20
3rd down
even
#24 42%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +19
#24 68%
BUF OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +8
#14 -0.01
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +17
#18 -0.01
234 #13
Pass yards
OFF +8
#21 237
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +13
#14 115
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#5 2.8
46% #3
3rd down
even
#9 37%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +20
#23 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DET PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.8
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #7 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #30 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #7 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #7 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #7 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #7 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #14 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #18 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #14 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #14 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #14 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #14 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.