no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out
BUF win probability
ours 58.8%
book 60.0%
44%
74%
book is 1.2 pts higher
projected DET 24 – BUF 27 · BUF -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BUF -3.5opened -3
BUF −2.9
6/10
—at the line
| book | BUF | DET |
|---|---|---|
| CZR | ||
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| SCORE | ||
| DK |
51.5opened 52.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| SCORE | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| FD |
60.0%opened -159
ours 58.8%
7/10
DET−1.1 pts vs book
| book | BUF | DET |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR | ||
| SCORE | ||
| FD |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
21 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DET · 10
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ahmed Hassanein | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Mekhi Wingo | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Rolder | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Giovanni Manu | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Christian Izien | S | OUT | Groin |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
BUF · 11
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Skyler Bell | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| Mike Danna | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
| Zane Durant | DT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jude Bowry | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalon Kilgore | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jedrick Wills Jr. | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 1.1 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · DET defense
BUF 72% #3
DET #23 68%
DET
Red zoneDET offense · BUF defense
DET 70% #5
BUF #24 68%
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · DET defense
BUF +0.11 #1
DET #18 -0.01
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · BUF defense
DET 120 #14
BUF #28 136
DET
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · DET defense
BUF 2.4 #19
DET #6 2.8
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · DET defense
BUF 160 #1
DET #13 115
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · DET defense
BUF +0.16 #6
DET #14 -0.01
BUF
Pass yardsBUF offense · DET defense
BUF 234 #13
DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · DET defense
BUF 46% #3
DET #9 37%
DET
Run gameDET offense · BUF defense
DET -0.04 #24
BUF #30 +0.09
DET
3rd downDET offense · BUF defense
DET 39% #20
BUF #24 42%
DET
Pass attackDET offense · BUF defense
DET +0.17 #4
BUF #7 -0.11
BUF
Pass yardsDET offense · BUF defense
DET 269 #3
BUF #1 170
DET
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · BUF defense
DET 2.3 #18
BUF #19 2.1
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#30 +0.09
269 #3
Pass yards
even
#1 170
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +14
#28 136
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
39% #20
3rd down
even
#24 42%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +19
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
even
BUFpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#22
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#41
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#157
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
DETrun block
line +14
BUFrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#474
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#79
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#92
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#144
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#538
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DET DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +8
#14 -0.01
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +17
#18 -0.01
234 #13
Pass yards
OFF +8
#21 237
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +13
#14 115
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +13
#6 2.8
46% #3
3rd down
even
#9 37%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +20
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
rush +13
DETpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#89
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
BUFrun block
line +12
DETrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#391
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#404
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#236
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#125
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 115