no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Aidan O'Connell QB out · Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 68%
book 76%
57%
87%
book is 8 pts higher
projected LV 17 – LAC 23 · LAC -6.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
LAC -7opened -8.75
LAC −6.1
4/10
—at the line
| book | LAC | LV |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| DK | ||
| CZR | ||
| MGM | ||
| SCORE |
42.5opened 43
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| MGM |
76.0%opened -412
ours 68.0%
7/10
LV−8.0 pts vs book
| book | LAC | LV |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD | ||
| SCORE |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LV · 11
| Aidan O'Connell | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Brock Bowers | TE | OUT | Knee - Meniscus |
|
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays | with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
| |||
| Carter Runyon | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Darrell Luter Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Keyron Crawford | DE | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| JJ Pegues | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Bryce Cabeldue | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Cody Lindenberg | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dalton Johnson | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Darien Porter | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Foot |
LAC · 12
| Scott Matlock | FB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Ladd McConkey | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Chest |
|
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays | with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
| |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Deane Leonard | CB | OUT | Abdomen |
| Alex Harkey | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Branson Taylor | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Logan Taylor | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Trevor Penning | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Denzel Perryman | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Isaiah World | OT | OUT | Knee |
| RJ Mickens | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Molden | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 8.0 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC
Run gameLV offense · LAC defense
LV -0.26 #32
LAC #4 -0.07
LAC
3rd downLAC offense · LV defense
LAC 46% #4
LV #30 47%
LAC
3rd downLV offense · LAC defense
LV 34% #29
LAC #4 35%
LAC
Red zoneLV offense · LAC defense
LV 56% #27
LAC #3 52%
LAC
Run block vs frontLV offense · LAC defense
LV 77 #32
LAC #8 105
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #5
LAC
Pass pro vs rushLV offense · LAC defense
LV 3.8 #32
LAC #9 2.6
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC
Pass yardsLV offense · LAC defense
LV 195 #26
LAC #4 195
LAC
Pass attackLV offense · LAC defense
LV -0.19 #29
LAC #9 -0.09
6 more comparisons, gap under 20
LV
Red zoneLAC offense · LV defense
LAC 52% #30
LV #11 59%
LV
Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · LV defense
LAC 3.5 #30
LV #21 2.1
Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
LAC
Run block vs frontLAC offense · LV defense
LAC 122 #11
LV #16 117
Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
LV
Pass attackLAC offense · LV defense
LAC -0.05 #26
LV #22 +0.08
LAC
Run gameLAC offense · LV defense
LAC +0.02 #11
LV #14 -0.04
LV
Pass yardsLAC offense · LV defense
LAC 233 #15
LV #13 214
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LV offense against what it runs into
LV OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC LAC DEFENSE
LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +20
#9 -0.09
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +28
#4 -0.07
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +22
#4 195
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +24
#8 105
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#10 2.6
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +25
#4 35%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +24
#3 52%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LVpass pro
rush +23
LACpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sk#54
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sk#65
3.8 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
LVrun block
front +24
LACrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze—
Teair Tart LDE
4.0 tfl#242
Dalvin Tomlinson NT
3.0 tfl#281
Jamaree Caldwell RDE
5.0 tfl#191
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB
20.0 tfl#5
Daiyan Henley LILB
5.0 tfl#184
77 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 105
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAC offense against what it runs into
LAC OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
LV DEFENSE
LAC offence: Greg Roman called these → Mike McDaniel calls it now.
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#13 214
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#17 117
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#21 2.1
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +26
#30 47%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +19
#11 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LACpass pro
rush +9
LVpass rush
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sk#15
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sk#80
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sk#90
3.5 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#21 2.1
LACrun block
even
LVrun D
LTRashawn Slater—
LGKayode Awosika34% DET
CJake Slaughter—
RGCole Strange99% MIA
RTJoe Alt75%
Jonah Laulu LDE
8.0 tfl#77
Adam Butler NT
3.0 tfl#313
Tonka Hemingway RDE
5.0 tfl#205
Maxx Crosby WLB
28.0 tfl#2
Nakobe Dean LILB
7.0 tfl#113
122 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 117