Las Vegas Raiders
@
Los Angeles Chargers
DIV
BOOK LAC 78%
MODEL LAC 70%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 16:05
· SoFi Stadium (dome)
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 3 – 7 LAC
LAC -8.5
Vegas line (context)
42.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LV OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
LAC OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LV OFFENSE
vs
LAC DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
DEF +20
#9 -0.09
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +28
#4 -0.07
195 #26
Pass yards
DEF +22
#4 195
77 #32
Rush yards
DEF +24
#8 105
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#10 2.6
34% #29
3rd down
DEF +25
#4 35%
56% #27
Red zone
DEF +24
#3 52%
LAC OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
-0.05 #26
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
+0.02 #11
Run game
even
#14 -0.04
233 #15
Pass yards
even
#13 214
122 #12
Rush yards
even
#17 117
3.5 #30
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#21 2.1
46% #4
3rd down
OFF +26
#30 47%
52% #30
Red zone
DEF +19
#11 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LV PASS RUSH
vs
LAC PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #30
sacks allowed /g
#10 2.1
LAC PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Tuli Tuipulotu LB
14.0 sacks '25
Justin Eboigbe DT
6.0 sacks '25
Khalil Mack OLB
5.5 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 2.6
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #9 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #4 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #9 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #9 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #9 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #9 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
LAC
Justin Herbert QB
vs #23 PASS D
228.6 pass y/g 3/10
Omarion Hampton RB
vs #14 RUN D
54.4 rush y/g 5/10
Ladd McConkey WR1
vs #23 PASS D
48.3 rec y/g 3/10
Quentin Johnston WR2
vs #23 PASS D
53.9 rec y/g 2/10
Tre' Harris WR3
vs #23 PASS D
20.2 rec y/g 4/10
Oronde Gadsden TE
vs #23 PASS D
43.4 rec y/g 2/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.