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Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers ★ DIV · AFC WEST ★

Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 16:05 · SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf
indoor · weather is not a factor · Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 3 – 7 LAC
no sides on this game yet · the record
LV Aidan O'Connell QB out · Dont'e Thornton Jr. WR out · Brock Bowers TE out → Michael Mayer · Carter Runyon TE out    LAC Scott Matlock FB out · KeAndre Lambert-Smith WR q · Ladd McConkey WR q → Quentin Johnston
LAC win probability
ours 68% book 76%
57%
87%
book is 8 pts higher
projected LV 17 – LAC 23 · LAC -6.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Chargersspread · margin, last 10
LAC -7opened -8.75
LAC −6.1
4/10
at the line
bookLACLV
FD
DK
CZR
MGM
SCORE
Chargerstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5opened 43
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
CZR
DK
MGM
Chargersmoneyline · wins, last 10
76.0%opened -412
ours 68.0%
7/10
LV−8.0 pts vs book
bookLACLV
DK
MGM
CZR
FD
SCORE
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LV · 11
Aidan O'ConnellQBOUTCoach's Decision
Dont'e Thornton Jr.WROUTUndisclosed · IR
Brock BowersTEOUTKnee - Meniscus
Next up: Michael Mayer TE2 · 4 tgt · 3 rec · 25 yds · 62% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Bowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 57 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (12 g)
LV without him, 5 games last season: 53% pass · 23.0 pts · 51 plays  |  with him (12): 61% pass · 21.2 pts · 53 plays
Carter RunyonTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Darrell Luter Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Keyron CrawfordDEOUTAnkle · IR
JJ PeguesDTOUTCoach's Decision
Bryce CabeldueGOUTCoach's Decision
Cody LindenbergLBOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton JohnsonSOUTCoach's Decision
Darien PorterCBQUESTIONABLEFoot
LAC · 12
Scott MatlockFBOUTUndisclosed · IR
KeAndre Lambert-SmithWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Ladd McConkeyWRQUESTIONABLEChest
Next up: Quentin Johnston WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 57 yds · 77% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
McConkey: 7 tgt · 4 rec · 49 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
LAC without him, 1 game last season: 68% pass · 19.0 pts · 65 plays  |  with him (16): 54% pass · 22.3 pts · 61 plays
9 more · line, defense, specialists
Deane LeonardCBOUTAbdomen
Alex HarkeyGOUTCoach's Decision
Branson TaylorGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Logan TaylorGOUTCoach's Decision
Trevor PenningGOUTCoach's Decision
Denzel PerrymanLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Isaiah WorldOTOUTKnee
RJ MickensSOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah MoldenCBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 8.0 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAC Run gameLV offense · LAC defense DEF +28 LV -0.26 #32 LAC #4 -0.07
LAC 3rd downLAC offense · LV defense OFF +26 LAC 46% #4 LV #30 47%
LAC 3rd downLV offense · LAC defense DEF +25 LV 34% #29 LAC #4 35%
LAC Red zoneLV offense · LAC defense DEF +24 LV 56% #27 LAC #3 52%
LAC Run block vs frontLV offense · LAC defense FRONT +24 LV 77 #32 LAC #8 105 Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl #5
LAC Pass pro vs rushLV offense · LAC defense RUSH +23 LV 3.8 #32 LAC #9 2.6 Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk #6
LAC Pass yardsLV offense · LAC defense DEF +22 LV 195 #26 LAC #4 195
LAC Pass attackLV offense · LAC defense DEF +20 LV -0.19 #29 LAC #9 -0.09
6 more comparisons, gap under 20
LV Red zoneLAC offense · LV defense DEF +19 LAC 52% #30 LV #11 59%
LV Pass pro vs rushLAC offense · LV defense RUSH +9 LAC 3.5 #30 LV #21 2.1 Maxx Crosby DE 10.0 sk #15
LAC Run block vs frontLAC offense · LV defense LINE +5 LAC 122 #11 LV #16 117 Maxx Crosby WLB 28.0 tfl #2
LV Pass attackLAC offense · LV defense DEF +4 LAC -0.05 #26 LV #22 +0.08
LAC Run gameLAC offense · LV defense OFF +3 LAC +0.02 #11 LV #14 -0.04
LV Pass yardsLAC offense · LV defense DEF +2 LAC 233 #15 LV #13 214

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

LAC DEFENSE LV OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 39% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LV offense against what it runs into

LV OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC LAC DEFENSE

LAC defence: Jesse Minter called these → Chris O'Leary calls it now.

-0.19 #29 Pass attack DEF +20 #9 -0.09
-0.26 #32 Run game DEF +28 #4 -0.07
195 #26 Pass yards DEF +22 #4 195
77 #32 Rush yards DEF +24 #8 105
3.8 #32 Pass pro vs rush DEF +22 #10 2.6
34% #29 3rd down DEF +25 #4 35%
56% #27 Red zone DEF +24 #3 52%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LVpass pro rush +23 LACpass rush
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Tuli Tuipulotu LB 13.0 sk#6
Justin Eboigbe DT 6.0 sk#54
Khalil Mack OLB 5.5 sk#65
3.8 #32sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
LVrun block front +24 LACrun D
LTKolton Miller100%
LGSpencer Burford71% SF
CTyler Linderbaum99% BAL
RGJackson Powers-Johnson76%
RTDJ Glaze
Teair Tart LDE 4.0 tfl#242
Dalvin Tomlinson NT 3.0 tfl#281
Jamaree Caldwell RDE 5.0 tfl#191
Tuli Tuipulotu WLB 20.0 tfl#5
Daiyan Henley LILB 5.0 tfl#184
77 #32rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 105