Washington Commanders
@
Dallas Cowboys
DIV
BOOK DAL 64%
MODEL DAL 57%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 16:25
· AT&T Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 2 – 8 DAL
DAL -4.5
Vegas line (context)
51.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
DAL OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
OFF +13
#31 +0.22
+0.02 #9
Run game
OFF +22
#31 +0.09
196 #24
Pass yards
OFF +8
#32 266
135 #4
Rush yards
OFF +19
#23 125
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +9
#24 2.0
38% #22
3rd down
OFF +9
#31 48%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +27
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +25
#30 +0.20
+0.01 #15
Run game
OFF +13
#28 +0.07
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +27
#28 257
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +21
#30 142
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
43% #8
3rd down
OFF +15
#23 42%
62% #17
Red zone
OFF +11
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 2.5
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #31 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #31 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #31 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #31 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #31 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #31 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #30 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #28 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #30 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #30 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #30 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #30 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.