no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 34%
book 32%
18%
48%
book is 2 pts lower
projected GB 25 – NYJ 20 · GB -5.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYJ +4.5opened +5.5
NYJ +5.4
3/10
—at the line
| book | NYJ | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| DK | ||
| MGM | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR |
42.5opened 42.5
held
7/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| MGM | ||
| DK | ||
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR |
31.9%opened +202
ours 34.2%
3/10
NYJ+2.2 pts vs book
| book | NYJ | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| MGM |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
GB · 11
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Anthony Campbell | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordon Riley | DT | OUT | Achilles |
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Travis Glover | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
NYJ · 12
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Tyler Baron | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Trevin Wallace | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Blake Grupe | PK | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced · moneyline 2.2 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
Pass attackGB offense · NYJ defense
GB +0.23 #3
NYJ #32 +0.25
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · NYJ defense
GB 1.7 #7
NYJ #31 1.5
GB
Pass yardsNYJ offense · GB defense
NYJ 164 #32
GB #10 207
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · NYJ defense
GB 120 #15
NYJ #29 139
GB
Red zoneGB offense · NYJ defense
GB 63% #16
NYJ #29 70%
GB
Red zoneNYJ offense · GB defense
NYJ 53% #29
GB #17 64%
GB
Run gameNYJ offense · GB defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
GB #17 -0.02
GB
3rd downNYJ offense · GB defense
NYJ 35% #27
GB #16 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
GB
3rd downGB offense · NYJ defense
GB 49% #2
NYJ #12 39%
GB
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · GB defense
NYJ 3.5 #29
GB #20 2.1
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
NYJ
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · GB defense
NYJ 123 #10
GB #17 118
GB
Run gameGB offense · NYJ defense
GB -0.01 #19
NYJ #26 +0.03
GB
Pass attackNYJ offense · GB defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
GB #23 +0.08
NYJ
Pass yardsGB offense · NYJ defense
GB 226 #18
NYJ #16 226
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +29
#32 +0.25
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#16 226
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +14
#29 139
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#31 1.5
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +10
#12 39%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +13
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +24
NYJpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#108
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
GBrun block
line +14
NYJrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#237
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#179
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#46
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#148
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +12
#17 -0.02
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +22
#10 207
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +8
#18 118
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +9
#20 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +11
#16 41%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +12
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
rush +9
GBpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#111
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
NYJrun block
even
GBrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#492
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#235
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#157
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#310
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#224
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118