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Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 0 – 1 NYJ
no sides on this game yet · the record
GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q    NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 34% book 32%
18%
48%
book is 2 pts lower
projected GB 25 – NYJ 20 · GB -5.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jetsspread · margin, last 10
NYJ +4.5opened +5.5
NYJ +5.4
3/10
at the line
bookNYJGB
FD
DK
MGM
SCORE
CZR
Jetstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5opened 42.5
held
7/10
held this week
bookoverunder
MGM
DK
FD
SCORE
CZR
Jetsmoneyline · wins, last 10
31.9%opened +202
ours 34.2%
3/10
NYJ+2.2 pts vs book
bookNYJGB
FD
SCORE
CZR
DK
MGM
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
GB · 11
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
J. Michael SturdivantWROUTCoach's Decision
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Anthony CampbellDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jordon RileyDTOUTAchilles
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Travis GloverOTOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
NYJ · 12
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
9 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
Tyler BaronDEOUTKnee
Trevin WallaceLBOUTCoach's Decision
Blake GrupePKOUTCoach's Decision
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSDOUBTFULGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced · moneyline 2.2 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB Pass attackGB offense · NYJ defense OFF +29 GB +0.23 #3 NYJ #32 +0.25
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · NYJ defense LINE +24 GB 1.7 #7 NYJ #31 1.5
GB Pass yardsNYJ offense · GB defense DEF +22 NYJ 164 #32 GB #10 207
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · NYJ defense LINE +14 GB 120 #15 NYJ #29 139
GB Red zoneGB offense · NYJ defense OFF +13 GB 63% #16 NYJ #29 70%
GB Red zoneNYJ offense · GB defense DEF +12 NYJ 53% #29 GB #17 64%
GB Run gameNYJ offense · GB defense DEF +12 NYJ -0.06 #29 GB #17 -0.02
GB 3rd downNYJ offense · GB defense DEF +11 NYJ 35% #27 GB #16 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
GB 3rd downGB offense · NYJ defense OFF +10 GB 49% #2 NYJ #12 39%
GB Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · GB defense RUSH +9 NYJ 3.5 #29 GB #20 2.1 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
NYJ Run block vs frontNYJ offense · GB defense LINE +7 NYJ 123 #10 GB #17 118
GB Run gameGB offense · NYJ defense OFF +7 GB -0.01 #19 NYJ #26 +0.03
GB Pass attackNYJ offense · GB defense DEF +5 NYJ -0.18 #28 GB #23 +0.08
NYJ Pass yardsGB offense · NYJ defense DEF +2 GB 226 #18 NYJ #16 226

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

NYJ DEFENSE GB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 48% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units GB offense against what it runs into

GB OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE

NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.

+0.23 #3 Pass attack OFF +29 #32 +0.25
-0.01 #19 Run game even #26 +0.03
226 #18 Pass yards even #16 226
120 #15 Rush yards OFF +14 #29 139
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush OFF +24 #31 1.5
49% #2 3rd down OFF +10 #12 39%
63% #16 Red zone OFF +13 #29 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

GBpass pro line +24 NYJpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Will McDonald IV DE 8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE 5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE 4.0 sk#108
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
GBrun block line +14 NYJrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele
Kingsley Enagbare LDE 6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT 4.0 tfl#237
Harrison Phillips RDT 5.0 tfl#179
Will McDonald IV RDE 10.0 tfl#46
Demario Davis WLB 6.0 tfl#148
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139