Green Bay Packers
@
New York Jets
BOOK NYJ 30%
MODEL NYJ 38%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: GB 0 – 1 NYJ
GB -6.0
Vegas line (context)
42.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
GB OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
GB OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
OFF +29
#32 +0.25
-0.01 #19
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
226 #18
Pass yards
even
#16 226
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +14
#29 139
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#31 1.5
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +10
#12 39%
63% #15
Red zone
OFF +14
#29 70%
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +12
#17 -0.02
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +22
#10 207
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +8
#18 118
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#19 2.1
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +11
#16 41%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +12
#17 64%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
GB PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.1
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 1.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #32 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #26 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #32 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #32 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #32 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #32 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #22 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #17 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #22 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #22 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #22 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #22 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.