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Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 0 – 1 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record · lines as of 10:30 AM · projections as of 10:01 PM
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out    BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 73% book 76%
59%
89%
book is 3 pts higher
projected NO 19 – BAL 27 · BAL -7.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -8.5opened -7.5
BAL −7.9
4/10
at the line
bookBALNO
FD
MGM
CZR
DK
SCORE
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5opened 46
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
FD
SCORE
MGM
CZR
DK
Ravensmoneyline · wins, last 10
76.0%opened -367
ours 72.7%
6/10
NO−3.3 pts vs book
bookBALNO
DK
MGM
SCORE
CZR
FD
Touchdownslinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Touchdowns
Anytime TD4
Derrick HenryBAL · RB
71%
55%
6/10
-16 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
Travis Etienne Jr.NO · RB
47%
36%
6/10
-11 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
Chris OlaveNO · WR
40%
30%
5/10
-10 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK
Lamar JacksonBAL · QB
42%
24%
2/10
-18 pts vs book
booklineyes
DK

Injury report

15 designations · as of 8:00 PM
NO · 7
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

4 legs priced · moneyline 3.3 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
1Anytime TD Lamar Jackson BAL 24%42% 18.0bookpoisson
2Anytime TD Derrick Henry BAL 55%71% 15.5bookpoisson
3Anytime TD Travis Etienne Jr. NO 36%47% 10.1bookpoisson
4Anytime TD Chris Olave NO 30%40% 9.6bookpoisson
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL Red zoneNO offense · BAL defense DEF +25 NO 50% #32 BAL #7 55%
BAL Run gameNO offense · BAL defense DEF +24 NO -0.10 #31 BAL #7 -0.05
NO Pass yardsBAL offense · NO defense DEF +23 BAL 193 #28 NO #5 196
BAL Run block vs frontNO offense · BAL defense FRONT +22 NO 94 #30 BAL #8 106
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · NO defense LINE +22 BAL 162 #1 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
NO Pass yardsNO offense · BAL defense OFF +19 NO 237 #10 BAL #29 259
NO Pass attackBAL offense · NO defense DEF +12 BAL -0.04 #24 NO #12 -0.05
NO 3rd downBAL offense · NO defense DEF +10 BAL 41% #15 NO #5 36%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
BAL 3rd downNO offense · BAL defense DEF +9 NO 40% #19 BAL #10 38%
NO Red zoneBAL offense · NO defense DEF +7 BAL 60% #22 NO #15 62%
BAL Pass attackNO offense · BAL defense DEF +6 NO -0.08 #27 BAL #21 +0.07
NO Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · NO defense RUSH +4 BAL 2.5 #20 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
BAL Pass pro vs rushNO offense · BAL defense RUSH +0 NO 3.2 #28 BAL #28 1.8
NO Run gameBAL offense · NO defense DEF +0 BAL +0.10 #2 NO #2 -0.07

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

BAL DEFENSE NO OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NO offense against what it runs into

NO OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

-0.08 #27 Pass attack even #21 +0.07
-0.10 #31 Run game DEF +24 #7 -0.05
237 #10 Pass yards OFF +19 #29 259
94 #28 Rush yards DEF +18 #10 107
2.9 #25 Pass pro vs rush even #28 1.8
40% #19 3rd down DEF +9 #10 38%
50% #32 Red zone DEF +25 #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NOpass pro even BALpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#48
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#72
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#80
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
NOrun block front +22 BALrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#438
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#53
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#54
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#352
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#168
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106