New Orleans Saints
@
Baltimore Ravens
BOOK BAL 75%
MODEL BAL 68%
Week 2 · 2026-09-20 · 13:00
· M&T Bank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 0 – 1 BAL
BAL -7.5
Vegas line (context)
46.5
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NO OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
BAL OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NO OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +24
#7 -0.05
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +19
#29 259
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +18
#10 107
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#30 1.8
40% #19
3rd down
DEF +9
#10 38%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +25
#7 55%
BAL OFFENSE
vs
NO DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +12
#12 -0.05
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#2 -0.07
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +23
#5 196
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +17
#19 121
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#11 2.6
41% #15
3rd down
DEF +10
#5 36%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NO PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Chase Young DE
10.0 sacks '25
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sacks '25
Tyree Wilson DE
4.0 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.6
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
NO PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
2.9 #25
sacks allowed /g
#11 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NO
Tyler Shough QB
vs #21 PASS D
216.7 pass y/g 7/10
Travis Etienne Jr. RB
2025: JAC
vs #7 RUN D
65.2 rush y/g 5/10
Chris Olave WR1
vs #21 PASS D
72.7 rec y/g 5/10
Jordyn Tyson WR2
vs #21 PASS D
— rec y/g
Devaughn Vele WR3
vs #21 PASS D
32.6 rec y/g 4/9
Juwan Johnson TE
vs #21 PASS D
52.3 rec y/g 5/10
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #12 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #2 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #12 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #12 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #12 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #12 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.