no sides on this game yet · the record · lines as of 10:30 AM · projections as of 10:01 PM
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 73%
book 76%
59%
89%
book is 3 pts higher
projected NO 19 – BAL 27 · BAL -7.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BAL -8.5opened -7.5
BAL −7.9
4/10
—at the line
| book | BAL | NO |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK | ||
| SCORE |
48.5opened 46
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| FD | ||
| SCORE | ||
| MGM | ||
| CZR | ||
| DK |
76.0%opened -367
ours 72.7%
6/10
NO−3.3 pts vs book
| book | BAL | NO |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| MGM | ||
| SCORE | ||
| CZR | ||
| FD |
Touchdownslinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Touchdowns
Anytime TD4
71%
55%
6/10
—-16 pts vs book
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK |
47%
36%
6/10
—-11 pts vs book
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK |
40%
30%
5/10
—-10 pts vs book
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK |
42%
24%
2/10
—-18 pts vs book
| book | line | yes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK |
Injury report
15 designations · as of 8:00 PM
NO · 7
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
4 legs priced · moneyline 3.3 pts apart
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anytime TD | Lamar Jackson BAL | 24% | 42% | 18.0 | book | poisson |
| 2 | Anytime TD | Derrick Henry BAL | 55% | 71% | 15.5 | book | poisson |
| 3 | Anytime TD | Travis Etienne Jr. NO | 36% | 47% | 10.1 | book | poisson |
| 4 | Anytime TD | Chris Olave NO | 30% | 40% | 9.6 | book | poisson |
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Red zoneNO offense · BAL defense
NO 50% #32
BAL #7 55%
BAL
Run gameNO offense · BAL defense
NO -0.10 #31
BAL #7 -0.05
NO
Pass yardsBAL offense · NO defense
BAL 193 #28
NO #5 196
BAL
Run block vs frontNO offense · BAL defense
NO 94 #30
BAL #8 106
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · NO defense
BAL 162 #1
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #8
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · BAL defense
NO 237 #10
BAL #29 259
NO
Pass attackBAL offense · NO defense
BAL -0.04 #24
NO #12 -0.05
NO
3rd downBAL offense · NO defense
BAL 41% #15
NO #5 36%
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
BAL
3rd downNO offense · BAL defense
NO 40% #19
BAL #10 38%
NO
Red zoneBAL offense · NO defense
BAL 60% #22
NO #15 62%
BAL
Pass attackNO offense · BAL defense
NO -0.08 #27
BAL #21 +0.07
NO
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · NO defense
BAL 2.5 #20
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
BAL
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · BAL defense
NO 3.2 #28
BAL #28 1.8
NO
Run gameBAL offense · NO defense
BAL +0.10 #2
NO #2 -0.07
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
-0.10 #31
Run game
DEF +24
#7 -0.05
237 #10
Pass yards
OFF +19
#29 259
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +18
#10 107
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#28 1.8
40% #19
3rd down
DEF +9
#10 38%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +25
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
even
BALpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#48
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#72
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#80
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
NOrun block
front +22
BALrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#438
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#53
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#54
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#352
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#168
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
DEF +12
#12 -0.05
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#2 -0.07
193 #28
Pass yards
DEF +23
#5 196
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +17
#19 121
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#11 2.6
41% #15
3rd down
DEF +10
#5 36%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
NOpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#55
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
BALrun block
line +22
NOrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#8
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#419
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#145
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#34
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#37
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127