The ratings' most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Shown beside the market's own number so you can see where they disagree. Not a pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Power +0.0 · off #15

21–20

projected score

THU OCT 1 · 8:15 PM · DIV

Cleveland Browns

Power -3.2 · off #31

CLE win probability

ours 49% book 45%

32%

62%

book is 4 pts lower

Our number PIT -0.3 · 40.8

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

PIT -2.5 -110* CLE +2.5 -110*

Total

Over 40.5 -110* Under 40.5 -110*

Moneyline

PIT win -135 CLE win +114

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	PIT spread	CLE spread	Over	Under	PIT win	CLE win
DraftKings	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	40.5-110	40.5-110	-135	+114
Caesars	-3-115	+3-115	38.5-115	38.5-115	-170	+135

PIT offense vs CLE defense-0.6 pts

CLE offense vs PIT defense-3.8 pts

Full breakdown →

Indianapolis Colts

Power +1.0 · off #8

25–23

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 9:30 AM

Washington Commanders

Power -1.8 · off #22

WAS win probability

ours 45% book 52%

33%

63%

book is 7 pts higher

Our number IND -1.6 · 47.8

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

IND +1.5 -110* WAS -1.5 -110*

Total

Over 50.5 -110* Under 50.5 -110*

Moneyline

IND win -102 WAS win -118

All 4 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	IND spread	WAS spread	Over	Under	IND win	WAS win
DraftKings	+1.5-115	-1.5-105	50.5-110	50.5-110	-102	-118
FanDuel	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	49.5-110	49.5-110	-116	-102
theScore Bet	+1-110	-1-110	50.5-105	50.5-115	+100	-120
Caesars	+1.5-114	-1.5-105	50.5-104	50.5-117	-109	-108

IND offense vs WAS defense+3.7 pts

WAS offense vs IND defense+0.9 pts

Full breakdown →

Arizona Cardinals

Power -2.4 · off #23

22–25

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM

New York Giants

Power -2.0 · off #17

NYG win probability

ours 59% book 73%

51%

81%

book is 14 pts higher

Our number NYG -2.8 · 46.6

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

ARI +7 -110* NYG -7 -110*

Total

Over 45.5 -110* Under 45.5 -110*

Moneyline

ARI win +260 NYG win -325

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	ARI spread	NYG spread	Over	Under	ARI win	NYG win
DraftKings	+7-110	-7-110	45.5-110	45.5-110	+260	-325
Caesars	+6.5-110	-6.5-120	44.5-115	44.5-115	+225	-310

ARI offense vs NYG defense+0.5 pts

NYG offense vs ARI defense+0.9 pts

Full breakdown →

Dallas Cowboys

Power -1.6 · off #7

21–27

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM

Houston Texans

Power +3.0 · off #13

HOU win probability

ours 68% book 55%

47%

77%

book is 13 pts lower

Our number HOU -6.0 · 48.1

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

DAL +2.5 -110* HOU -2.5 -110*

Total

Over 47.5 -110* Under 47.5 -110*

Moneyline

DAL win +114 HOU win -135

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	DAL spread	HOU spread	Over	Under	DAL win	HOU win
DraftKings	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	+114	-135
Caesars	+3-120	-3-110	46.5-115	46.5-115	+130	-170

DAL offense vs HOU defense-0.8 pts

HOU offense vs DAL defense+3.8 pts

Full breakdown →

Green Bay Packers

Power +1.2 · off #16

23–23

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Power -0.1 · off #18

TB win probability

ours 50% book 47%

33%

63%

book is 3 pts lower

Our number TB -0.1 · 45.3

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

GB -1.5 -110* TB +1.5 -110*

Total

Over 47.5 -110* Under 47.5 -110*

Moneyline

GB win -125 TB win +105

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	GB spread	TB spread	Over	Under	GB win	TB win
DraftKings	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	-125	+105
Caesars	-1.5-110	+1.5-120	46.5-115	46.5-115	-120	-110

GB offense vs TB defense+0.7 pts

TB offense vs GB defense-0.5 pts

Full breakdown →

Jacksonville Jaguars

Power +2.4 · off #6

25–24

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM

Cincinnati Bengals

Power -1.3 · off #12

CIN win probability

ours 46% book 55%

35%

65%

book is 9 pts higher

Our number JAX -1.2 · 49.7

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

JAX +2.5 -110* CIN -2.5 -110*

Total

Over 51.5 -110* Under 51.5 -110*

Moneyline

JAX win +114 CIN win -135

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	JAX spread	CIN spread	Over	Under	JAX win	CIN win
DraftKings	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	51.5-110	51.5-110	+114	-135
Caesars	+3-115	-3-115	51.5-115	51.5-115	+130	-170

JAX offense vs CIN defense+4.2 pts

CIN offense vs JAX defense+0.4 pts

Full breakdown →

Los Angeles Rams

Power +3.7 · off #1

22–23

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM

Philadelphia Eagles

Power +1.8 · off #19

PHI win probability

ours 51% book —

no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against

Our number PHI -0.3 · 44.8

The market —

LAR offense vs PHI defense+0.8 pts

PHI offense vs LAR defense-1.1 pts

Full breakdown →

New England Patriots

Power +2.2 · off #2

22–25

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM · DIV

Buffalo Bills

Power +2.8 · off #4

BUF win probability

ours 60% book —

no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against

Our number BUF -3.2 · 46.9

The market —

NE offense vs BUF defense+0.6 pts

BUF offense vs NE defense+1.2 pts

Full breakdown →

New York Jets

Power -4.9 · off #29

19–27

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM

Chicago Bears

Power +0.4 · off #9

CHI win probability

ours 72% book 77%

59%

89%

book is 5 pts higher

Our number CHI -7.5 · 46.5

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

NYJ +8.5 -110* CHI -8.5 -110*

Total

Over 45.5 -110* Under 45.5 -110*

Moneyline

NYJ win +320 CHI win -410

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	NYJ spread	CHI spread	Over	Under	NYJ win	CHI win
DraftKings	+8.5-110	-8.5-110	45.5-110	45.5-110	+320	-410
Caesars	+9-115	-9-115	44.5-115	44.5-115	+305	-425

NYJ offense vs CHI defense-2.0 pts

CHI offense vs NYJ defense+3.3 pts

Full breakdown →

Tennessee Titans

Power -4.4 · off #30

18–28

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 1:00 PM

Baltimore Ravens

Power +1.8 · off #11

BAL win probability

ours 77.5% book 76.6%

62%

92%

book is 0.9 pts lower

Our number BAL -9.9 · 46.4

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

TEN +8.5 -110* BAL -8.5 -110*

Total

Over 47.5 -110* Under 47.5 -110*

Moneyline

TEN win +310 BAL win -395

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	TEN spread	BAL spread	Over	Under	TEN win	BAL win
DraftKings	+8.5-110	-8.5-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	+310	-395
Caesars	+9-115	-9-115	45.5-115	45.5-115	+330	-425

TEN offense vs BAL defense-2.5 pts

BAL offense vs TEN defense+3.7 pts

Full breakdown →

Miami Dolphins

Power -2.2 · off #25

18–24

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 4:05 PM

Minnesota Vikings

Power +0.4 · off #26

MIN win probability

ours 69% book 77%

58%

88%

book is 8 pts higher

Our number MIN -6.5 · 41.8

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

MIA +7.5 -110* MIN -7.5 -110*

Total

Over 43.5 -110* Under 43.5 -110*

Moneyline

MIA win +320 MIN win -410

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	MIA spread	MIN spread	Over	Under	MIA win	MIN win
DraftKings	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	43.5-110	43.5-110	+320	-410
Caesars	+7-115	-7-115	42-115	42-115	+280	-370

MIA offense vs MIN defense-3.0 pts

MIN offense vs MIA defense-0.4 pts

Full breakdown →

Denver Broncos

Power +1.8 · off #14

20–24

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM

San Francisco 49ers

Power +2.2 · off #10

SF win probability

ours 59% book —

no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against

Our number SF -3.1 · 43.9

The market —

DEN offense vs SF defense-0.8 pts

SF offense vs DEN defense-0.5 pts

Full breakdown →

Kansas City Chiefs

Power +1.1 · off #21

22–18

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM · DIV

Las Vegas Raiders

Power -4.4 · off #32

LV win probability

ours 38% book 33%

21%

51%

book is 5 pts lower

Our number KC -4.0 · 40.4

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

KC -5.5 -110* LV +5.5 -110*

Total

Over 43.5 -110* Under 43.5 -110*

Moneyline

KC win -230 LV win +190

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	KC spread	LV spread	Over	Under	KC win	LV win
DraftKings	-5.5-110	+5.5-110	43.5-110	43.5-110	-230	+190
Caesars	-5.5-115	+5.5-115	42.5-115	42.5-115	-255	+190

KC offense vs LV defense+0.3 pts

LV offense vs KC defense-5.1 pts

Full breakdown →

Los Angeles Chargers

Power +0.5 · off #20

19–24

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 4:25 PM

Seattle Seahawks

Power +5.1 · off #3

SEA win probability

ours 64% book —

no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against

Our number SEA -4.6 · 42.5

The market —

LAC offense vs SEA defense-3.6 pts

SEA offense vs LAC defense+0.9 pts

Full breakdown →

Detroit Lions

Power +2.4 · off #5

26–21

projected score

SUN OCT 4 · 8:20 PM

Carolina Panthers

Power -2.1 · off #27

CAR win probability

ours 37% book 41%

24%

54%

book is 4 pts higher

Our number DET -4.3 · 47.1

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

DET -3 -110* CAR +3 -110*

Total

Over 47.5 -110* Under 47.5 -110*

Moneyline

DET win -162 CAR win +136

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	DET spread	CAR spread	Over	Under	DET win	CAR win
DraftKings	-3-110	+3-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	-162	+136
Caesars	-3-120	+3-110	46.5-115	46.5-115	-180	+140

DET offense vs CAR defense+3.2 pts

CAR offense vs DET defense-1.3 pts

Full breakdown →

Atlanta Falcons

Power -1.2 · off #24

18–24

projected score

MON OCT 5 · 8:15 PM · DIV

New Orleans Saints

Power -2.2 · off #28

NO win probability

ours 66% book 55%

45%

75%

book is 11 pts lower

Our number NO -5.6 · 42.1

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

ATL +2.5 -110* NO -2.5 -110*

Total

Over 45.5 -110* Under 45.5 -110*

Moneyline

ATL win +114 NO win -135

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	ATL spread	NO spread	Over	Under	ATL win	NO win
DraftKings	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	45.5-115	45.5-105	+114	-135
Caesars	+2.5-120	-2.5-110	44.5-110	44.5-110	+110	-140

ATL offense vs NO defense-1.0 pts

NO offense vs ATL defense-2.0 pts

Full breakdown →