The ratings' most-likely winners — a read, not a betting edge. Shown beside the market's own number so you can see where they disagree. Not a pick.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Power -0.1 · off #18

25–26

projected score

THU OCT 8 · 8:15 PM

Dallas Cowboys

Power -1.6 · off #7

DAL win probability

ours 53% book 64%

43%

73%

book is 11 pts higher

Our number DAL -0.9 · 51.3

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

TB +3.5 -110* DAL -3.5 -110*

Total

Over 52.5 -110* Under 52.5 -110*

Moneyline

TB win +170 DAL win -205

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	TB spread	DAL spread	Over	Under	TB win	DAL win
DraftKings	+3.5-110	-3.5-110	52.5-110	52.5-110	+170	-205
Caesars	+3-110	-3-120	51-115	51-115	+150	-195

TB offense vs DAL defense+3.8 pts

DAL offense vs TB defense+2.3 pts

Full breakdown →

Philadelphia Eagles

Power +1.8 · off #19

21–23

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 9:30 AM

Jacksonville Jaguars

Power +2.4 · off #6

JAX win probability

ours 55% book 47%

36%

66%

book is 8 pts lower

Our number JAX -1.8 · 43.7

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

PHI -1.5 -110* JAX +1.5 -110*

Total

Over 45.5 -110* Under 45.5 -110*

Moneyline

PHI win -125 JAX win +105

All 4 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	PHI spread	JAX spread	Over	Under	PHI win	JAX win
DraftKings	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	45.5-110	45.5-110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5-108	+1.5-112	44.5-104	44.5-118	-120	+102
theScore Bet	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	45.5-105	45.5-115	-125	+105
Caesars	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	44.5-110	44.5-110	-125	+105

PHI offense vs JAX defense-1.0 pts

JAX offense vs PHI defense-0.4 pts

Full breakdown →

Cincinnati Bengals

Power -1.3 · off #12

24–24

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 1:00 PM

Miami Dolphins

Power -2.2 · off #25

MIA win probability

ours 49% book 29%

24%

54%

book is 20 pts lower

Our number CIN -0.3 · 48.5

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

CIN -6 -110* MIA +6 -110*

Total

Over 49.5 -110* Under 49.5 -110*

Moneyline

CIN win -278 MIA win +225

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	CIN spread	MIA spread	Over	Under	CIN win	MIA win
DraftKings	-6-110	+6-110	49.5-110	49.5-110	-278	+225
Caesars	-6.5-115	+6.5-115	48-115	48-115	-290	+205

CIN offense vs MIA defense+2.1 pts

MIA offense vs CIN defense+1.3 pts

Full breakdown →

Cleveland Browns

Power -3.2 · off #31

22–20

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 1:00 PM

New York Jets

Power -4.9 · off #29

NYJ win probability

ours 45% book 54%

35%

65%

book is 9 pts higher

Our number CLE -1.6 · 41.6

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

CLE +1.5 -110* NYJ -1.5 -110*

Total

Over 39.5 -110* Under 39.5 -110*

Moneyline

CLE win +110 NYJ win -130

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	CLE spread	NYJ spread	Over	Under	CLE win	NYJ win
DraftKings	+1.5-105	-1.5-115	39.5-110	39.5-110	+110	-130
Caesars	+2.5-115	-2.5-115	38.5-115	38.5-115	+120	-150

CLE offense vs NYJ defense-0.9 pts

NYJ offense vs CLE defense-2.6 pts

Full breakdown →

Houston Texans

Power +3.0 · off #13

25–18

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 1:00 PM · DIV

Tennessee Titans

Power -4.4 · off #30

TEN win probability

ours 31% book 38%

19%

49%

book is 7 pts higher

Our number HOU -6.6 · 42.5

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

HOU -3.5 -110* TEN +3.5 -110*

Total

Over 43.5 -110* Under 43.5 -110*

Moneyline

HOU win -185 TEN win +154

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	HOU spread	TEN spread	Over	Under	HOU win	TEN win
DraftKings	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	43.5-110	43.5-110	-185	+154
Caesars	-3-120	+3-110	42.5-115	42.5-115	-170	+135

HOU offense vs TEN defense+2.4 pts

TEN offense vs HOU defense-5.0 pts

Full breakdown →

Indianapolis Colts

Power +1.0 · off #8

23–25

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 1:00 PM

Pittsburgh Steelers

Power +0.0 · off #15

PIT win probability

ours 55.2% book 56.3%

41%

71%

book is 1.1 pts higher

Our number PIT -1.7 · 47.6

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

IND +2.5 -110* PIT -2.5 -110*

Total

Over 47.5 -110* Under 47.5 -110*

Moneyline

IND win +120 PIT win -142

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	IND spread	PIT spread	Over	Under	IND win	PIT win
DraftKings	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	+120	-142
Caesars	+2-115	-2-115	46.5-115	46.5-115	+100	-131

IND offense vs PIT defense+1.7 pts

PIT offense vs IND defense+0.7 pts

Full breakdown →

Las Vegas Raiders

Power -4.4 · off #32

17–25

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 1:00 PM

New England Patriots

Power +2.2 · off #2

NE win probability

ours 73% book —

no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against

Our number NE -7.9 · 41.5

The market —

LV offense vs NE defense-5.1 pts

NE offense vs LV defense+1.5 pts

Full breakdown →

Minnesota Vikings

Power +0.4 · off #26

21–19

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 1:00 PM

New Orleans Saints

Power -2.2 · off #28

NO win probability

ours 43% book 47%

30%

60%

book is 4 pts higher

Our number MIN -2.4 · 39.6

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

MIN -1.5 -110* NO +1.5 -110*

Total

Over 44.5 -110* Under 44.5 -110*

Moneyline

MIN win -125 NO win +105

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	MIN spread	NO spread	Over	Under	MIN win	NO win
DraftKings	-1.5-110	+1.5-110	44.5-110	44.5-110	-125	+105
Caesars	+1.5-120	-1.5-110	43.5-115	43.5-115	-105	-125

MIN offense vs NO defense-1.4 pts

NO offense vs MIN defense-4.1 pts

Full breakdown →

New York Giants

Power -2.0 · off #17

22–25

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 1:00 PM · DIV

Washington Commanders

Power -1.8 · off #22

WAS win probability

ours 59% book 54%

41%

71%

book is 5 pts lower

Our number WAS -3.0 · 47.0

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

NYG +2.5 -110* WAS -2.5 -110*

Total

Over 48.5 -110* Under 48.5 -110*

Moneyline

NYG win +110 WAS win -130

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	NYG spread	WAS spread	Over	Under	NYG win	WAS win
DraftKings	+2.5-115	-2.5-105	48.5-110	48.5-110	+110	-130
Caesars	+3-120	-3-110	49-115	49-115	+125	-155

NYG offense vs WAS defense+0.8 pts

WAS offense vs NYG defense+1.0 pts

Full breakdown →

Denver Broncos

Power +1.8 · off #14

20–21

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 4:05 PM · DIV

Los Angeles Chargers

Power +0.5 · off #20

LAC win probability

ours 52% book 56%

39%

69%

book is 4 pts higher

Our number LAC -0.7 · 41.3

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

DEN +2.5 -110* LAC -2.5 -110*

Total

Over 44.5 -110* Under 44.5 -110*

Moneyline

DEN win +120 LAC win -142

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	DEN spread	LAC spread	Over	Under	DEN win	LAC win
DraftKings	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	44.5-110	44.5-110	+120	-142
Caesars	+3-120	-3-110	44.5-115	44.5-115	+135	-170

DEN offense vs LAC defense-1.3 pts

LAC offense vs DEN defense-2.6 pts

Full breakdown →

Chicago Bears

Power +0.4 · off #9

21–25

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 4:25 PM · DIV

Green Bay Packers

Power +1.2 · off #16

GB win probability

ours 60.9% book 60.0%

45%

75%

book is 0.9 pts lower

Our number GB -3.6 · 45.7

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

CHI +3 -110* GB -3 -110*

Total

Over 49.5 -110* Under 49.5 -110*

Moneyline

CHI win +140 GB win -166

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	CHI spread	GB spread	Over	Under	CHI win	GB win
DraftKings	+3-110	-3-110	49.5-110	49.5-110	+140	-166
Caesars	+3.5-120	-3.5-110	48.5-115	48.5-115	+150	-191

CHI offense vs GB defense-0.1 pts

GB offense vs CHI defense+0.6 pts

Full breakdown →

Detroit Lions

Power +2.4 · off #5

27–23

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 4:25 PM

Arizona Cardinals

Power -2.4 · off #23

ARI win probability

ours 39% book 23%

16%

46%

book is 16 pts lower

Our number DET -3.8 · 49.7

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

DET -8.5 -110* ARI +8.5 -110*

Total

Over 48.5 -110* Under 48.5 -110*

Moneyline

DET win -395 ARI win +310

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	DET spread	ARI spread	Over	Under	DET win	ARI win
DraftKings	-8.5-110	+8.5-110	48.5-110	48.5-110	-395	+310
Caesars	-8-115	+8-115	48.5-115	48.5-115	-400	+300

DET offense vs ARI defense+4.7 pts

ARI offense vs DET defense-0.1 pts

Full breakdown →

San Francisco 49ers

Power +2.2 · off #10

21–24

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 4:25 PM · DIV

Seattle Seahawks

Power +5.1 · off #3

SEA win probability

ours 57% book —

no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against

Our number SEA -2.2 · 45.1

The market —

SF offense vs SEA defense-1.5 pts

SEA offense vs SF defense+1.4 pts

Full breakdown →

Baltimore Ravens

Power +1.8 · off #11

27–19

projected score

SUN OCT 11 · 8:20 PM

Atlanta Falcons

Power -1.2 · off #24

ATL win probability

ours 29% book 36%

17%

47%

book is 7 pts higher

Our number BAL -7.2 · 46.2

The market consensus · tap to build a ticket

Spread

BAL -4.5 -110* ATL +4.5 -110*

Total

Over 48.5 -110* Under 48.5 -110*

Moneyline

BAL win -205 ATL win +170

All 2 books real prices · tap one to build the ticket at that book

Book	BAL spread	ATL spread	Over	Under	BAL win	ATL win
DraftKings	-4.5-110	+4.5-110	48.5-110	48.5-110	-205	+170
Caesars	-4-115	+4-115	47.5-115	47.5-115	-210	+165

BAL offense vs ATL defense+2.0 pts

ATL offense vs BAL defense-1.0 pts

Full breakdown →

Buffalo Bills

Power +2.8 · off #4

24–26

projected score

MON OCT 12 · 8:15 PM

Los Angeles Rams

Power +3.7 · off #1

LAR win probability

ours 57% book —

no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against

Our number LAR -2.2 · 50.0

The market —

BUF offense vs LAR defense+2.0 pts

LAR offense vs BUF defense+2.9 pts

Full breakdown →