Philadelphia Eagles
@
San Francisco 49ers
MODEL SF 56%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 20:20
· Levi's Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 1 – 3 SF
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PHI OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
SF OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PHI OFFENSE
vs
SF DEFENSE
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +12
#25 +0.11
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +8
#22 +0.01
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#23 242
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#11 108
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#32 1.2
38% #21
3rd down
even
#20 41%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +12
#14 62%
SF OFFENSE
vs
PHI DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#6 204
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#22 124
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +21
#22 42%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PHI PASS RUSH
vs
SF PASS PRO
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sacks '25
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sacks '25
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.6 #5
sacks allowed /g
#32 2.5
SF PASS RUSH
vs
PHI PASS PRO
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sacks '25
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sacks '25
Keion White DE
2.5 sacks '25
2.1 #12
sacks allowed /g
#12 1.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PHI
Jalen Hurts QB
vs #25 PASS D
199.5 pass y/g 3/10
Saquon Barkley RB
vs #22 RUN D
73.3 rush y/g 6/10
DeVonta Smith WR1
vs #25 PASS D
59.9 rec y/g 3/10
Makai Lemon WR2
vs #25 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dontayvion Wicks WR3
2025: GB
vs #25 PASS D
25.5 rec y/g 3/10
Dallas Goedert TE
vs #25 PASS D
39.0 rec y/g 3/10
SF
Brock Purdy QB
vs #5 PASS D
233.5 pass y/g 5/10
Christian McCaffrey RB
vs #16 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 5/10
Mike Evans WR1
2025: TB
vs #5 PASS D
46.0 rec y/g 3/8
Ricky Pearsall WR2
vs #5 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 5/10
Christian Kirk WR3
2025: HOU
vs #5 PASS D
31.0 rec y/g 3/10
George Kittle TE
vs #5 PASS D
52.8 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.