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Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 20:20 · Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PHI 1 – 3 SF
no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out    SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 59% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 21 – SF 24 · SF -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
49ersspread · margin, last 10
SF -2.25
SF −3.1
8/10
at the line
bookSFPHI
DK
CZR
49erstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF 3rd downSF offense · PHI defense OFF +21 SF 51% #1 PHI #22 42%
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · PHI defense LINE +17 SF 1.3 #2 PHI #19 2.1
PHI Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · SF defense LINE +15 PHI 2.2 #17 SF #32 0.9
PHI Pass attackPHI offense · SF defense OFF +12 PHI +0.04 #13 SF #25 +0.11
PHI Red zonePHI offense · SF defense OFF +12 PHI 74% #2 SF #14 62%
PHI Run gamePHI offense · SF defense OFF +8 PHI +0.01 #14 SF #22 +0.01
SF Run block vs frontPHI offense · SF defense FRONT +3 PHI 119 #13 SF #10 110
PHI Pass attackSF offense · PHI defense DEF +2 SF +0.16 #7 PHI #5 -0.12
6 more comparisons, gap under 2
SF Red zoneSF offense · PHI defense OFF +2 SF 68% #8 PHI #10 59%
SF Run block vs frontSF offense · PHI defense LINE +2 SF 114 #20 PHI #22 126
PHI Run gameSF offense · PHI defense DEF +2 SF -0.00 #18 PHI #16 -0.02
SF 3rd downPHI offense · SF defense DEF +1 PHI 38% #21 SF #20 41%
SF Pass yardsPHI offense · SF defense DEF +0 PHI 206 #23 SF #23 242
PHI Pass yardsSF offense · PHI defense DEF +0 SF 254 #6 PHI #6 204

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

SF DEFENSE PHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PHI offense against what it runs into

PHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC SF DEFENSE

PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.

+0.04 #13 Pass attack OFF +12 #25 +0.11
+0.01 #14 Run game OFF +8 #22 +0.01
206 #23 Pass yards even #23 242
117 #18 Rush yards even #11 108
2.1 #12 Pass pro vs rush OFF +20 #32 1.2
38% #21 3rd down even #20 41%
74% #2 Red zone OFF +12 #14 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PHIpass pro line +15 SFpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Osa Odighizuwa DT 3.5 sk#114
Sam Okuayinonu DT 3.0 sk#160
Keion White DE 1.5 sk#264
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
PHIrun block even SFrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Keion White LDE 2.0 tfl#380
Osa Odighizuwa LDT 6.0 tfl#138
Gracen Halton RDT
Nick Bosa RDE 4.0 tfl#211
Dre Greenlaw WLB 2.0 tfl#391
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110