no sides on this game yet · the record
PHI Eli Stowers TE out SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 59%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PHI 21 – SF 24 · SF -3.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SF -2.25
SF −3.1
8/10
—at the line
| book | SF | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SF
3rd downSF offense · PHI defense
SF 51% #1
PHI #22 42%
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · PHI defense
SF 1.3 #2
PHI #19 2.1
PHI
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · SF defense
PHI 2.2 #17
SF #32 0.9
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · SF defense
PHI +0.04 #13
SF #25 +0.11
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · SF defense
PHI 74% #2
SF #14 62%
PHI
Run gamePHI offense · SF defense
PHI +0.01 #14
SF #22 +0.01
SF
Run block vs frontPHI offense · SF defense
PHI 119 #13
SF #10 110
PHI
Pass attackSF offense · PHI defense
SF +0.16 #7
PHI #5 -0.12
6 more comparisons, gap under 2
SF
Red zoneSF offense · PHI defense
SF 68% #8
PHI #10 59%
SF
Run block vs frontSF offense · PHI defense
SF 114 #20
PHI #22 126
PHI
Run gameSF offense · PHI defense
SF -0.00 #18
PHI #16 -0.02
SF
3rd downPHI offense · SF defense
PHI 38% #21
SF #20 41%
SF
Pass yardsPHI offense · SF defense
PHI 206 #23
SF #23 242
PHI
Pass yardsSF offense · PHI defense
SF 254 #6
PHI #6 204
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
OFF +12
#25 +0.11
+0.01 #14
Run game
OFF +8
#22 +0.01
206 #23
Pass yards
even
#23 242
117 #18
Rush yards
even
#11 108
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +20
#32 1.2
38% #21
3rd down
even
#20 41%
74% #2
Red zone
OFF +12
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
line +15
SFpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#114
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#160
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#264
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
PHIrun block
even
SFrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#380
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#138
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#211
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#391
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
-0.00 #18
Run game
even
#16 -0.02
254 #6
Pass yards
even
#6 204
107 #24
Rush yards
even
#22 124
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
51% #1
3rd down
OFF +21
#22 42%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
line +17
PHIpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#82
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
SFrun block
even
PHIrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#207
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#471
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#105
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#379
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126