Baltimore Ravens
@
Cincinnati Bengals
DIV
MODEL CIN 47%
Week 17 · 2026-12-31 · 20:15
· Paycor Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: BAL 6 – 5 CIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BAL OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
CIN OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BAL OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#28 +0.16
+0.10 #2
Run game
OFF +27
#29 +0.09
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#25 246
157 #2
Rush yards
OFF +30
#32 147
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
41% #15
3rd down
OFF +12
#27 44%
60% #22
Red zone
even
#26 69%
CIN OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
250 #7
Pass yards
OFF +22
#29 259
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +19
#10 107
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#30 1.8
44% #5
3rd down
even
#10 38%
76% #1
Red zone
even
#7 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 1.8
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #28 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #29 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #28 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #28 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #28 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #28 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #21 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #7 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #21 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #21 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #21 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #21 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.