Detroit Lions
@
Chicago Bears
DIV
MODEL CHI 50%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 16:25
· Soldier Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 7 – 3 CHI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DET OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
CHI OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DET OFFENSE
vs
CHI DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +14
#18 +0.03
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +19
#22 239
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +13
#27 135
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
39% #20
3rd down
even
#19 41%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +13
#18 65%
CHI OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +14
#18 -0.01
235 #12
Pass yards
OFF +9
#21 237
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +11
#14 115
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
even
#5 2.8
43% #11
3rd down
even
#9 37%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +13
#23 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DET PASS RUSH
vs
CHI PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
1.4 #3
sacks allowed /g
#22 2.8
CHI PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Montez Sweat DE
11.0 sacks '25
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sacks '25
Austin Booker DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #18 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #19 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #18 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #18 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #18 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #18 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
CHI
Caleb Williams QB
vs #14 PASS D
240.0 pass y/g 5/10
D'Andre Swift RB
vs #18 RUN D
67.6 rush y/g 4/10
Rome Odunze WR1
vs #14 PASS D
53.5 rec y/g 2/10
Luther Burden III WR2
vs #14 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Kalif Raymond WR3
2025: DET
vs #14 PASS D
19.3 rec y/g 5/10
Colston Loveland TE
vs #14 PASS D
50.3 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.