no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out CHI Miller Moss QB out · Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 48%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 25 – CHI 25 · DET -0.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CHI -1.5
CHI +0.7
7/10
—at the line
| book | CHI | DET |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
21 designations · as of 11:45 PM
DET · 10
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | OUT | Back · IR |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Cade Mays | C | OUT | Wrist · IR |
| Ennis Rakestraw Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ahmed Hassanein | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Payton Turner | DE | OUT | Back · IR |
| Mekhi Wingo | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Rolder | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Giovanni Manu | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Christian Izien | S | OUT | Groin |
| Christian Mahogany | G | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
CHI · 11
| Miller Moss | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Jamree Kromah | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jonathan Garvin | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jayden Loving | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jordan McFadden | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET
Pass yardsDET offense · CHI defense
DET 269 #3
CHI #22 239
DET
Pass attackDET offense · CHI defense
DET +0.17 #4
CHI #18 +0.03
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · DET defense
CHI +0.08 #4
DET #18 -0.01
DET
Red zoneDET offense · CHI defense
DET 70% #5
CHI #18 65%
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · DET defense
CHI 66% #10
DET #23 68%
DET
Run block vs frontDET offense · CHI defense
DET 120 #14
CHI #27 135
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl #15
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · DET defense
CHI 144 #3
DET #13 115
Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #13
CHI
Pass yardsCHI offense · DET defense
CHI 235 #12
DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
CHI
Run gameDET offense · CHI defense
DET -0.04 #24
CHI #19 +0.00
CHI
Pass attackCHI offense · DET defense
CHI +0.08 #10
DET #14 -0.01
DET
Pass pro vs rushDET offense · CHI defense
DET 2.3 #18
CHI #22 2.1
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk #15
DET
3rd downCHI offense · DET defense
CHI 43% #11
DET #9 37%
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · DET defense
CHI 1.4 #4
DET #6 2.8
Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
CHI
3rd downDET offense · CHI defense
DET 39% #20
CHI #19 41%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DET offense against what it runs into
DET OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
CHI DEFENSE
DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +14
#18 +0.03
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +19
#22 239
120 #14
Rush yards
OFF +13
#27 135
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
39% #20
3rd down
even
#19 41%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +13
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DETpass pro
even
CHIpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#15
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#84
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#130
2.3 #18sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#22 2.1
DETrun block
line +13
CHIrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller—
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#15
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#574
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#351
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#432
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#106
120 #14rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 135
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DET DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
even
#14 -0.01
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +14
#18 -0.01
235 #12
Pass yards
OFF +9
#21 237
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +11
#14 115
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
even
#6 2.8
43% #11
3rd down
even
#9 37%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +13
#23 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
even
DETpass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sk#4
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sk#71
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sk#101
1.4 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
CHIrun block
line +10
DETrun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Aidan Hutchinson LDE
14.0 tfl#13
Alim McNeill LDT
2.0 tfl#366
Tyleik Williams RDT
2.0 tfl#458
DJ Wonnum RDE
4.0 tfl#235
Derrick Barnes WLB
6.0 tfl#160
144 #3rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 115