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Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears ★ DIV · NFC NORTH ★

Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 16:25 · Soldier Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DET 7 – 3 CHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
DET Isiah Pacheco RB out    CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
CHI win probability
ours 51% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DET 26 – CHI 26 · CHI -0.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bearsspread · margin, last 10
CHI -1.5
CHI −0.3
7/10
at the line
bookCHIDET
DK
CZR
Bearstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

12 designations · as of 11:45 PM
DET · 6
Isiah PachecoRBOUTBack · IR
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Cade MaysCOUTWrist · IR
Payton TurnerDEOUTBack · IR
Christian MahoganyGQUESTIONABLEHip
Juice ScruggsGQUESTIONABLEKnee
Blake MillerOTQUESTIONABLEKnee
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DET Pass yardsDET offense · CHI defense OFF +19 DET 269 #3 CHI #22 239
DET Run block vs frontDET offense · CHI defense LINE +17 DET 125 #10 CHI #27 133
DET Pass attackDET offense · CHI defense OFF +14 DET +0.17 #4 CHI #18 +0.03
CHI Run gameCHI offense · DET defense OFF +14 CHI +0.08 #4 DET #18 -0.01
DET Red zoneDET offense · CHI defense OFF +13 DET 70% #5 CHI #18 65%
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · DET defense OFF +13 CHI 66% #10 DET #23 68%
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · DET defense LINE +10 CHI 161 #2 DET #12 111 Aidan Hutchinson LDE 14.0 tfl #11
CHI Pass yardsCHI offense · DET defense OFF +9 CHI 235 #12 DET #21 237
6 more comparisons, gap under 9
DET Pass pro vs rushDET offense · CHI defense LINE +5 DET 2.1 #15 CHI #20 2.0
CHI Run gameDET offense · CHI defense DEF +5 DET -0.04 #24 CHI #19 +0.00
CHI Pass attackCHI offense · DET defense OFF +4 CHI +0.08 #10 DET #14 -0.01
DET 3rd downCHI offense · DET defense DEF +2 CHI 43% #11 DET #9 37%
DET Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · DET defense RUSH +2 CHI 1.5 #4 DET #2 3.3 Aidan Hutchinson DE 14.5 sk #4
CHI 3rd downDET offense · CHI defense DEF +1 DET 39% #20 CHI #19 41%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CHI DEFENSE DET OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DET offense against what it runs into

DET OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CHI DEFENSE

DET offence: John Morton called these → Drew Petzing calls it now.

+0.17 #4 Pass attack OFF +14 #18 +0.03
-0.04 #24 Run game even #19 +0.00
269 #3 Pass yards OFF +19 #22 239
120 #14 Rush yards OFF +13 #27 135
2.3 #18 Pass pro vs rush even #22 2.1
39% #20 3rd down even #19 41%
70% #5 Red zone OFF +13 #18 65%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DETpass pro even CHIpass rush
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Montez Sweat DE 10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE 4.5 sk#85
Neville Gallimore DT 3.5 sk#111
2.1 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
DETrun block line +17 CHIrun D
LTPenei Sewell97%
LGChristian Mahogany98%
CJuice Scruggs27% HOU
RGTate Ratledge99%
RTBlake Miller
Montez Sweat LDE 13.0 tfl#16
Grady Jarrett LDT 1.0 tfl#550
Kentavius Street RDT 3.0 tfl#286
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE 2.0 tfl#414
Devin Bush WLB 7.0 tfl#118
125 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133