Denver Broncos
@
New England Patriots
MODEL NE 57%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· Gillette Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 0 – 2 NE
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
NE OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
even
#11 -0.06
+0.00 #16
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
231 #17
Pass yards
DEF +8
#9 207
119 #16
Rush yards
DEF +10
#6 102
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +24
#25 2.0
43% #9
3rd down
even
#11 39%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +11
#27 69%
NE OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
even
#6 -0.12
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#10 -0.04
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#11 212
129 #6
Rush yards
even
#2 91
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +23
#1 4.0
44% #6
3rd down
even
#2 34%
66% #9
Red zone
DEF +8
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 4.0
NE PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #11 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #15 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #11 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #11 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #11 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #11 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #6 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #10 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #6 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #6 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #6 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #6 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.