Las Vegas Raiders
@
Arizona Cardinals
MODEL ARI 62%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 16:05
· State Farm Stadium
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LV 0 – 1 ARI
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LV OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
Balanced · 39% run
Ball-control
ARI OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 34% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LV OFFENSE
vs
ARI DEFENSE
-0.19 #29
Pass attack
even
#27 +0.15
-0.26 #32
Run game
DEF +11
#21 +0.01
195 #26
Pass yards
even
#24 243
77 #32
Rush yards
even
#25 127
3.8 #32
Pass pro vs rush
even
#29 1.8
34% #29
3rd down
even
#29 45%
56% #27
Red zone
even
#21 67%
ARI OFFENSE
vs
LV DEFENSE
+0.00 #17
Pass attack
even
#23 +0.08
-0.06 #28
Run game
DEF +14
#14 -0.04
256 #5
Pass yards
OFF +8
#13 214
93 #31
Rush yards
DEF +14
#17 117
3.5 #28
Pass pro vs rush
even
#21 2.1
42% #12
3rd down
OFF +18
#30 47%
56% #26
Red zone
DEF +15
#11 59%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LV PASS RUSH
vs
ARI PASS PRO
Maxx Crosby DE
10.0 sacks '25
Malcolm Koonce DE
4.5 sacks '25
Kwity Paye DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #28
sacks allowed /g
#29 2.1
ARI PASS RUSH
vs
LV PASS PRO
Josh Sweat LB
12.0 sacks '25
Jonah Williams DE
3.0 sacks '25
Roy Lopez DT
2.0 sacks '25
3.8 #32
sacks allowed /g
#21 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LV
Kirk Cousins QB
2025: ATL
vs #27 PASS D
172.1 pass y/g 6/10
Ashton Jeanty RB
vs #21 RUN D
57.4 rush y/g 4/10
Tre Tucker WR1
vs #27 PASS D
40.9 rec y/g 3/10
Jalen Nailor WR2
2025: MIN
vs #27 PASS D
26.1 rec y/g 4/10
Jack Bech WR3
vs #27 PASS D
16.0 rec y/g 5/10
Brock Bowers TE
vs #27 PASS D
56.7 rec y/g 3/10
ARI
Jacoby Brissett QB
vs #23 PASS D
240.4 pass y/g 8/10
Jeremiyah Love RB
vs #14 RUN D
— rush y/g
Marvin Harrison Jr. WR1
vs #23 PASS D
50.7 rec y/g 5/10
Michael Wilson WR2
vs #23 PASS D
59.2 rec y/g 6/10
Kendrick Bourne WR3
2025: SF
vs #23 PASS D
36.7 rec y/g 1/10
Trey McBride TE
vs #23 PASS D
72.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.