BallKnowMe
More
NFL
9–6 · 60% · every call graded in public record →
← Matchups
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00 · Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 2 – 1 CAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock    CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 35% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 25 – CAR 20 · SEA -5.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Panthersspread · margin, last 10
CAR +5.5
CAR +5.2
6/10
at the line
bookCARSEA
DK
CZR
Pantherstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
SEA · 4
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULLower Body
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA 3rd downCAR offense · SEA defense DEF +24 CAR 36% #25 SEA #1 33%
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · CAR defense LINE +23 SEA 1.7 #6 CAR #29 1.8
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · CAR defense OFF +22 SEA 43% #10 CAR #32 48%
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · CAR defense LINE +21 SEA 120 #11 CAR #32 148
SEA Run gameCAR offense · SEA defense DEF +21 CAR -0.03 #22 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Red zoneCAR offense · SEA defense DEF +20 CAR 59% #24 SEA #4 54%
SEA Pass attackCAR offense · SEA defense DEF +17 CAR -0.05 #25 SEA #8 -0.10
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · CAR defense OFF +16 SEA +0.11 #8 CAR #24 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 16
SEA Pass yardsCAR offense · SEA defense DEF +15 CAR 194 #27 SEA #12 213
SEA Run block vs frontCAR offense · SEA defense FRONT +11 CAR 117 #15 SEA #4 94
SEA Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · SEA defense RUSH +7 CAR 2.0 #13 SEA #6 2.8
CAR Red zoneSEA offense · CAR defense DEF +6 SEA 62% #18 CAR #12 60%
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · CAR defense OFF +5 SEA 239 #9 CAR #14 215
CAR Run gameSEA offense · CAR defense DEF +2 SEA -0.05 #26 CAR #24 +0.02

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CAR DEFENSE SEA OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units SEA offense against what it runs into

SEA OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CAR DEFENSE

SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.

+0.11 #8 Pass attack OFF +16 #24 +0.11
-0.05 #26 Run game even #24 +0.02
239 #9 Pass yards even #14 215
123 #11 Rush yards OFF +9 #20 123
1.6 #5 Pass pro vs rush OFF +25 #30 1.8
43% #10 3rd down OFF +22 #32 48%
62% #18 Red zone even #12 60%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

SEApass pro line +23 CARpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Tyrel Dodson LB 5.0 sk#69
Derrick Brown DT 5.0 sk#77
Jaelan Phillips LB 5.0 sk#74
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
SEArun block line +21 CARrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Derrick Brown LDE 5.0 tfl#167
Lee Hunter NT
Bobby Brown III RDE 3.0 tfl#287
Patrick Jones II WLB 2.0 tfl#433
Devin Lloyd LILB 6.0 tfl#145
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148