no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 35%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected SEA 25 – CAR 20 · SEA -5.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CAR +5.5
CAR +5.2
6/10
—at the line
| book | CAR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
42.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
SEA · 4
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Lower Body |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
3rd downCAR offense · SEA defense
CAR 36% #25
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · CAR defense
SEA 1.7 #6
CAR #29 1.8
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · CAR defense
SEA 43% #10
CAR #32 48%
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · CAR defense
SEA 120 #11
CAR #32 148
SEA
Run gameCAR offense · SEA defense
CAR -0.03 #22
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Red zoneCAR offense · SEA defense
CAR 59% #24
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Pass attackCAR offense · SEA defense
CAR -0.05 #25
SEA #8 -0.10
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · CAR defense
SEA +0.11 #8
CAR #24 +0.11
6 more comparisons, gap under 16
SEA
Pass yardsCAR offense · SEA defense
CAR 194 #27
SEA #12 213
SEA
Run block vs frontCAR offense · SEA defense
CAR 117 #15
SEA #4 94
SEA
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · SEA defense
CAR 2.0 #13
SEA #6 2.8
CAR
Red zoneSEA offense · CAR defense
SEA 62% #18
CAR #12 60%
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · CAR defense
SEA 239 #9
CAR #14 215
CAR
Run gameSEA offense · CAR defense
SEA -0.05 #26
CAR #24 +0.02
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +16
#24 +0.11
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#14 215
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +9
#20 123
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +25
#30 1.8
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +22
#32 48%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +23
CARpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#69
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#77
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#74
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
SEArun block
line +21
CARrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#167
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#287
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#433
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#145
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +17
#8 -0.10
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +21
#1 -0.15
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +15
#12 213
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +16
#3 92
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +24
#1 33%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +20
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
SEApass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#40
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#53
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
CARrun block
front +11
SEArun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#115
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#304
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#36
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94