Seattle Seahawks
@
Carolina Panthers
MODEL CAR 34%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· Bank of America Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: SEA 2 – 1 CAR
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
SEA OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
CAR OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
SEA OFFENSE
vs
CAR DEFENSE
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +16
#24 +0.11
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
239 #9
Pass yards
even
#14 215
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +9
#20 123
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +22
#28 1.8
43% #10
3rd down
OFF +22
#32 48%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#12 60%
CAR OFFENSE
vs
SEA DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +17
#8 -0.10
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +21
#1 -0.15
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +15
#12 213
116 #19
Rush yards
DEF +16
#3 92
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#8 2.8
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +24
#1 33%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +20
#4 54%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
SEA PASS RUSH
vs
CAR PASS PRO
Byron Murphy II DT
9.0 sacks '25
Leonard Williams DE
8.0 sacks '25
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
8.0 sacks '25
2.1 #13
sacks allowed /g
#28 2.8
CAR PASS RUSH
vs
SEA PASS PRO
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sacks '25
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sacks '25
Nic Scourton LB
5.0 sacks '25
1.6 #6
sacks allowed /g
#8 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
SEA
Sam Darnold QB
vs #24 PASS D
236.0 pass y/g 5/10
Zach Charbonnet RB
vs #24 RUN D
44.1 rush y/g 5/10
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR1
vs #24 PASS D
99.6 rec y/g 3/10
Rashid Shaheed WR2
vs #24 PASS D
36.4 rec y/g 3/10
Cooper Kupp WR3
vs #24 PASS D
39.5 rec y/g 3/10
AJ Barner TE
vs #24 PASS D
29.3 rec y/g 4/10
CAR
Bryce Young QB
vs #8 PASS D
192.6 pass y/g 4/10
Chuba Hubbard RB
vs #1 RUN D
34.8 rush y/g 2/10
Tetairoa McMillan WR1
vs #8 PASS D
60.8 rec y/g 4/10
Jalen Coker WR2
vs #8 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 6/10
Xavier Legette WR3
vs #8 PASS D
23.2 rec y/g 2/10
Tommy Tremble TE
vs #8 PASS D
16.9 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.