no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out
JAX win probability
ours 65%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 21 – JAX 26 · JAX -5.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
JAX -3.25
JAC −5.2
7/10
—at the line
| book | JAC | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 10
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Treylon Burks | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jer'Zhan Newton | DT | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Ricky Barber | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanoa Togiai | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
JAX · 10
| Quinn Ewers | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanner Koziol | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Bryan Thomas Jr. | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Wesley Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zach Durfee | DE | OUT | Upper Body · IR |
| Daniel Faalele | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| Jalen Huskey | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · JAX defense
WAS 70% #4
JAX #25 68%
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · WAS defense
JAX +0.06 #11
WAS #30 +0.20
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · WAS defense
JAX 237 #11
WAS #28 257
JAX
Red zoneJAX offense · WAS defense
JAX 65% #12
WAS #28 70%
JAX
Pass attackWAS offense · JAX defense
WAS -0.01 #18
JAX #3 -0.14
WAS
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · JAX defense
WAS 2.2 #15
JAX #27 1.9
JAX
Run gameJAX offense · WAS defense
JAX -0.00 #17
WAS #28 +0.07
JAX
Run block vs frontJAX offense · WAS defense
JAX 115 #20
WAS #30 142
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
WAS
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · WAS defense
JAX 2.4 #20
WAS #13 2.5
JAX
3rd downWAS offense · JAX defense
WAS 38% #22
JAX #17 41%
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · WAS defense
JAX 40% #18
WAS #23 42%
JAX
Pass yardsWAS offense · JAX defense
WAS 196 #24
JAX #19 231
WAS
Run gameWAS offense · JAX defense
WAS +0.02 #9
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Run block vs frontWAS offense · JAX defense
WAS 135 #4
JAX #1 86
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
JAX DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +15
#3 -0.14
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#19 231
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#1 86
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#27 1.9
38% #22
3rd down
even
#17 41%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +21
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
line +12
JAXpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#62
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#110
2.2 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
WASrun block
even
JAXrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#79
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#111
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#329
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#25
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#197
135 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +19
#30 +0.20
-0.00 #17
Run game
OFF +11
#28 +0.07
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +17
#28 257
115 #20
Rush yards
OFF +10
#30 142
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
40% #18
3rd down
even
#23 42%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +16
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
even
WASpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#30
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#33
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#58
2.4 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.5
JAXrun block
line +10
WASrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#313
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#95
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#179
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#65
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#181
115 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142