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Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00 · EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 1 – 0 JAX
no sides on this game yet · the record
WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates    JAX Quinn Ewers QB out · Tanner Koziol TE out
JAX win probability
ours 65% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected WAS 21 – JAX 26 · JAX -5.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jaguarsspread · margin, last 10
JAX -3.25
JAC −5.2
7/10
at the line
bookJACWAS
DK
CZR
Jaguarstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
WAS · 10
Athan KaliakmanisQBOUTCoach's Decision
Luke McCaffreyWROUTCoach's Decision
Treylon BurksWROUTCoach's Decision
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTOUTPectoral · IR
Ricky BarberDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tanoa TogiaiGOUTCoach's Decision
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
JAX · 10
Quinn EwersQBOUTCoach's Decision
Tanner KoziolTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Bryan Thomas Jr.DEOUTCoach's Decision
Wesley WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Zach DurfeeDEOUTUpper Body · IR
Daniel FaaleleGOUTCoach's Decision
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
Jalen HuskeySOUTCoach's Decision
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · JAX defense OFF +21 WAS 70% #4 JAX #25 68%
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · WAS defense OFF +19 JAX +0.06 #11 WAS #30 +0.20
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · WAS defense OFF +17 JAX 237 #11 WAS #28 257
JAX Red zoneJAX offense · WAS defense OFF +16 JAX 65% #12 WAS #28 70%
JAX Pass attackWAS offense · JAX defense DEF +15 WAS -0.01 #18 JAX #3 -0.14
WAS Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · JAX defense LINE +12 WAS 2.2 #15 JAX #27 1.9
JAX Run gameJAX offense · WAS defense OFF +11 JAX -0.00 #17 WAS #28 +0.07
JAX Run block vs frontJAX offense · WAS defense LINE +10 JAX 115 #20 WAS #30 142
6 more comparisons, gap under 10
WAS Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · WAS defense RUSH +7 JAX 2.4 #20 WAS #13 2.5
JAX 3rd downWAS offense · JAX defense DEF +5 WAS 38% #22 JAX #17 41%
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · WAS defense OFF +5 JAX 40% #18 WAS #23 42%
JAX Pass yardsWAS offense · JAX defense DEF +5 WAS 196 #24 JAX #19 231
WAS Run gameWAS offense · JAX defense OFF +4 WAS +0.02 #9 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Run block vs frontWAS offense · JAX defense FRONT +3 WAS 135 #4 JAX #1 86

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

JAX DEFENSE WAS OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units WAS offense against what it runs into

WAS OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 JAX DEFENSE

WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.

-0.01 #18 Pass attack DEF +15 #3 -0.14
+0.02 #9 Run game even #13 -0.04
196 #24 Pass yards even #19 231
135 #4 Rush yards even #1 86
2.2 #15 Pass pro vs rush OFF +12 #27 1.9
38% #22 3rd down even #17 41%
70% #4 Red zone OFF +21 #25 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

WASpass pro line +12 JAXpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Josh Hines-Allen DE 8.0 sk#25
Arik Armstead DE 5.5 sk#62
Travon Walker DE 3.5 sk#110
2.2 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#27 1.9
WASrun block even JAXrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Travon Walker LDE 8.0 tfl#79
Arik Armstead LDT 7.0 tfl#111
DaVon Hamilton RDT 3.0 tfl#329
Josh Hines-Allen RDE 12.0 tfl#25
Foyesade Oluokun WLB 5.0 tfl#197
135 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86