Washington Commanders
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
MODEL JAC 68%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· EverBank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: WAS 1 – 0 JAC
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
WAS OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
JAC OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
WAS OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +15
#3 -0.14
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
196 #24
Pass yards
even
#19 231
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#1 86
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#27 1.9
38% #22
3rd down
even
#17 41%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +21
#25 68%
JAC OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
OFF +19
#30 +0.20
-0.01 #18
Run game
OFF +10
#28 +0.07
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +17
#28 257
115 #20
Rush yards
OFF +10
#30 142
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
40% #18
3rd down
even
#23 42%
65% #12
Red zone
OFF +16
#28 70%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.5
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #3 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #13 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #3 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #3 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #3 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #3 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #30 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #28 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #30 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #30 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #30 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #30 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.