Minnesota Vikings
@
New York Jets
MODEL NYJ 40%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 2 – 0 NYJ
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
even
#32 +0.25
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#26 +0.03
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +14
#16 226
108 #23
Rush yards
even
#29 139
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
even
#31 1.5
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +19
#12 39%
61% #21
Red zone
OFF +8
#29 70%
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +26
#2 -0.15
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +23
#6 -0.05
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +30
#2 178
123 #10
Rush yards
OFF +11
#21 124
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +25
#4 2.9
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +24
#3 35%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +27
#2 49%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 2.9
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 1.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #32 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #26 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #32 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #32 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #32 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #32 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #2 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #6 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #2 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #2 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #2 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #2 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.