no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 52%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 22 – GB 22 · GB -0.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -2.75
GB −0.7
4/10
—at the line
| book | GB | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
42.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
HOU · 5
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Jake Hummel | LB | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
GB · 6
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU
Run block vs frontGB offense · HOU defense
GB 114 #21
HOU #3 93
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
GB
Red zoneHOU offense · GB defense
HOU 51% #31
GB #17 64%
GB
Run gameHOU offense · GB defense
HOU -0.08 #30
GB #17 -0.02
HOU
Pass yardsGB offense · HOU defense
GB 226 #18
HOU #7 205
HOU
Run gameGB offense · HOU defense
GB -0.01 #19
HOU #8 -0.05
GB
3rd downHOU offense · GB defense
HOU 38% #24
GB #16 41%
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · GB defense
HOU +0.04 #15
GB #23 +0.08
GB
Run block vs frontHOU offense · GB defense
HOU 111 #23
GB #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
GB
3rd downGB offense · HOU defense
GB 49% #2
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · HOU defense
GB 2.1 #14
HOU #9 2.6
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
GB
Pass yardsHOU offense · GB defense
HOU 233 #14
GB #10 207
HOU
Pass attackGB offense · HOU defense
GB +0.23 #3
HOU #1 -0.19
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · GB defense
HOU 2.0 #12
GB #14 2.3
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
HOU
Red zoneGB offense · HOU defense
GB 63% #16
HOU #16 63%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +8
#23 +0.08
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +13
#17 -0.02
233 #14
Pass yards
even
#10 207
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#18 118
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#20 2.1
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +8
#16 41%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +14
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#97
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#122
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
HOUrun block
front +8
GBrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#533
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#271
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#312
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#215
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
HOU DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#1 -0.19
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +11
#8 -0.05
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +11
#7 205
120 #15
Rush yards
DEF +11
#4 94
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
49% #2
3rd down
even
#7 37%
63% #16
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
even
HOUpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#20
2.1 #14sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#9 2.6
GBrun block
front +18
HOUrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#5
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#138
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#200
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#63
114 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 93