Houston Texans
@
Green Bay Packers
MODEL GB 50%
Week 17 · 2027-01-04 · 20:15
· Lambeau Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 0 – 1 GB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
GB OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
even
#22 +0.08
-0.08 #30
Run game
DEF +13
#17 -0.02
233 #14
Pass yards
even
#10 207
109 #22
Rush yards
even
#18 118
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +10
#19 2.1
38% #24
3rd down
DEF +8
#16 41%
51% #31
Red zone
DEF +14
#17 64%
GB OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#1 -0.19
-0.01 #19
Run game
DEF +11
#8 -0.05
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +11
#7 205
120 #15
Rush yards
DEF +11
#4 94
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#7 2.8
49% #2
3rd down
even
#7 37%
63% #15
Red zone
even
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.8
GB PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #22 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #17 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #22 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #22 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #22 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #22 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #1 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #8 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #1 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #1 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #1 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #1 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.