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Week 17 · 2027-01-04 · 20:15 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 0 – 1 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 52% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 22 – GB 22 · GB -0.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -2.75
GB −0.7
4/10
at the line
bookGBHOU
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
HOU · 5
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Jake HummelLBDOUBTFULGroin
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
GB · 6
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Run block vs frontGB offense · HOU defense FRONT +18 GB 114 #21 HOU #3 93 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #5Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
GB Red zoneHOU offense · GB defense DEF +14 HOU 51% #31 GB #17 64%
GB Run gameHOU offense · GB defense DEF +13 HOU -0.08 #30 GB #17 -0.02
HOU Pass yardsGB offense · HOU defense DEF +11 GB 226 #18 HOU #7 205
HOU Run gameGB offense · HOU defense DEF +11 GB -0.01 #19 HOU #8 -0.05
GB 3rd downHOU offense · GB defense DEF +8 HOU 38% #24 GB #16 41%
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · GB defense OFF +8 HOU +0.04 #15 GB #23 +0.08
GB Run block vs frontHOU offense · GB defense FRONT +8 HOU 111 #23 GB #15 116
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
GB 3rd downGB offense · HOU defense OFF +5 GB 49% #2 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass pro vs rushGB offense · HOU defense RUSH +5 GB 2.1 #14 HOU #9 2.6 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
GB Pass yardsHOU offense · GB defense DEF +4 HOU 233 #14 GB #10 207
HOU Pass attackGB offense · HOU defense DEF +2 GB +0.23 #3 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · GB defense LINE +2 HOU 2.0 #12 GB #14 2.3 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
HOU Red zoneGB offense · HOU defense DEF +0 GB 63% #16 HOU #16 63%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

GB DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

+0.04 #15 Pass attack OFF +8 #23 +0.08
-0.08 #30 Run game DEF +13 #17 -0.02
233 #14 Pass yards even #10 207
109 #22 Rush yards even #18 118
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush OFF +10 #20 2.1
38% #24 3rd down DEF +8 #16 41%
51% #31 Red zone DEF +14 #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro even GBpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#97
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#122
2.0 #12sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#14 2.3
HOUrun block front +8 GBrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#533
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#271
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#142
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#312
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#215
111 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116