no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out
DAL win probability
ours 58%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 25 – DAL 27 · DAL -2.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
DAL -5
DAL −2.7
2/10
—at the line
| book | DAL | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
DAL · 5
| Malik Davis | RB | OUT | Hip · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Devin Moore | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Tyler Smith | G | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Malik Hooker | S | DOUBTFUL | Forearm |
| DeMarvion Overshown | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL
Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · NYG defense
DAL 1.5 #5
NYG #31 1.7
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
NYG
Run gameNYG offense · DAL defense
NYG +0.04 #5
DAL #31 +0.09
NYG
Run block vs frontNYG offense · DAL defense
NYG 133 #5
DAL #25 131
DAL
Run gameDAL offense · NYG defense
DAL +0.01 #15
NYG #32 +0.17
DAL
Pass yardsDAL offense · NYG defense
DAL 279 #1
NYG #17 230
DAL
Run block vs frontDAL offense · NYG defense
DAL 119 #12
NYG #28 134
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
NYG
3rd downNYG offense · DAL defense
NYG 40% #17
DAL #31 48%
NYG
Pass attackNYG offense · DAL defense
NYG -0.01 #19
DAL #31 +0.22
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
DAL
Pass attackDAL offense · NYG defense
DAL +0.16 #5
NYG #16 +0.03
NYG
Pass yardsNYG offense · DAL defense
NYG 218 #21
DAL #32 266
NYG
Red zoneNYG offense · DAL defense
NYG 59% #23
DAL #31 72%
DAL
3rd downDAL offense · NYG defense
DAL 43% #8
NYG #14 40%
DAL
Red zoneDAL offense · NYG defense
DAL 62% #17
NYG #22 68%
NYG
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · DAL defense
NYG 2.7 #22
DAL #23 2.0
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC DAL DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
OFF +12
#31 +0.22
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +26
#31 +0.09
218 #21
Pass yards
OFF +11
#32 266
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +18
#23 125
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
40% #17
3rd down
OFF +14
#31 48%
59% #23
Red zone
OFF +8
#31 72%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
even
DALpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Von Miller OLB
9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sk#29
James Houston DE
5.5 sk#57
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
NYGrun block
line +20
DALrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Quinnen Williams LDE
10.0 tfl#42
Otito Ogbonnia NT
3.0 tfl#304
Kenny Clark RDE
6.0 tfl#145
Rashan Gary WLB
7.0 tfl#110
DeMarvion Overshown LILB
1.0 tfl#499
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DAL offense against what it runs into
DAL OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +11
#16 +0.03
+0.01 #15
Run game
OFF +17
#32 +0.17
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +16
#17 230
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +22
#31 145
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
43% #8
3rd down
even
#14 40%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DALpass pro
line +26
NYGpass rush
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#90
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#117
1.5 #5sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
DALrun block
line +16
NYGrun D
LTTyler Guyton94%
LGT.J. Bass33%
CCooper Beebe98%
RGTyler Booker100%
RTTerence Steele98%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#114
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#186
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
119 #12rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134