New York Giants
@
Dallas Cowboys
DIV
MODEL DAL 57%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· AT&T Stadium
· matrixturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 1 – 9 DAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
NYG OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
DAL OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
NYG OFFENSE
vs
DAL DEFENSE
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
OFF +12
#31 +0.22
+0.04 #5
Run game
OFF +26
#31 +0.09
218 #21
Pass yards
OFF +11
#32 266
129 #5
Rush yards
OFF +18
#23 125
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
40% #17
3rd down
OFF +14
#31 48%
59% #23
Red zone
OFF +8
#31 72%
DAL OFFENSE
vs
NYG DEFENSE
+0.16 #5
Pass attack
OFF +11
#16 +0.03
+0.01 #15
Run game
OFF +17
#32 +0.17
279 #1
Pass yards
OFF +16
#17 230
126 #9
Rush yards
OFF +22
#31 145
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#17 2.2
43% #8
3rd down
even
#14 40%
62% #17
Red zone
even
#22 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
NYG PASS RUSH
vs
DAL PASS PRO
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sacks '25
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sacks '25
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sacks '25
1.8 #10
sacks allowed /g
#24 2.2
DAL PASS RUSH
vs
NYG PASS PRO
Rashan Gary LB
7.5 sacks '25
James Houston DE
5.5 sacks '25
Kenny Clark NT
3.0 sacks '25
2.8 #23
sacks allowed /g
#17 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
NYG
Jaxson Dart QB
vs #31 PASS D
162.3 pass y/g 8/10
Cam Skattebo RB
vs #31 RUN D
51.2 rush y/g 5/8
Malik Nabers WR1
vs #31 PASS D
67.8 rec y/g 2/4
Darius Slayton WR2
vs #31 PASS D
38.4 rec y/g 4/10
Darnell Mooney WR3
2025: ATL
vs #31 PASS D
29.5 rec y/g 4/10
Isaiah Likely TE
2025: BAL
vs #31 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
DAL
Dak Prescott QB
vs #16 PASS D
267.8 pass y/g 6/10
Javonte Williams RB
vs #32 RUN D
75.1 rush y/g 5/10
CeeDee Lamb WR1
vs #16 PASS D
82.8 rec y/g 4/10
George Pickens WR2
vs #16 PASS D
84.1 rec y/g 4/10
Ryan Flournoy WR3
vs #16 PASS D
31.7 rec y/g 4/10
Jake Ferguson TE
vs #16 PASS D
35.3 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.