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New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys ★ DIV · NFC EAST ★

Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00 · AT&T Stadium · matrixturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 1 – 9 DAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
DAL Malik Davis RB out
DAL win probability
ours 58% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 25 – DAL 27 · DAL -2.7 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Cowboysspread · margin, last 10
DAL -5
DAL −2.7
2/10
at the line
bookDALNYG
DK
CZR
Cowboystotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

6 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR
DAL · 5
Malik DavisRBOUTHip · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Devin MooreCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Tyler SmithGOUTThumb · IR
Malik HookerSDOUBTFULForearm
DeMarvion OvershownLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DAL Pass pro vs rushDAL offense · NYG defense LINE +26 DAL 1.5 #5 NYG #31 1.7 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
NYG Run gameNYG offense · DAL defense OFF +26 NYG +0.04 #5 DAL #31 +0.09
NYG Run block vs frontNYG offense · DAL defense LINE +20 NYG 133 #5 DAL #25 131
DAL Run gameDAL offense · NYG defense OFF +17 DAL +0.01 #15 NYG #32 +0.17
DAL Pass yardsDAL offense · NYG defense OFF +16 DAL 279 #1 NYG #17 230
DAL Run block vs frontDAL offense · NYG defense LINE +16 DAL 119 #12 NYG #28 134 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
NYG 3rd downNYG offense · DAL defense OFF +14 NYG 40% #17 DAL #31 48%
NYG Pass attackNYG offense · DAL defense OFF +12 NYG -0.01 #19 DAL #31 +0.22
6 more comparisons, gap under 12
DAL Pass attackDAL offense · NYG defense OFF +11 DAL +0.16 #5 NYG #16 +0.03
NYG Pass yardsNYG offense · DAL defense OFF +11 NYG 218 #21 DAL #32 266
NYG Red zoneNYG offense · DAL defense OFF +8 NYG 59% #23 DAL #31 72%
DAL 3rd downDAL offense · NYG defense OFF +6 DAL 43% #8 NYG #14 40%
DAL Red zoneDAL offense · NYG defense OFF +5 DAL 62% #17 NYG #22 68%
NYG Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · DAL defense LINE +1 NYG 2.7 #22 DAL #23 2.0

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

DAL DEFENSE NYG OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYG offense against what it runs into

NYG OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC DAL DEFENSE

NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
DAL defence: Matt Eberflus called these → Christian Parker calls it now.

-0.01 #19 Pass attack OFF +12 #31 +0.22
+0.04 #5 Run game OFF +26 #31 +0.09
218 #21 Pass yards OFF +11 #32 266
129 #5 Rush yards OFF +18 #23 125
2.8 #23 Pass pro vs rush even #25 2.0
40% #17 3rd down OFF +14 #31 48%
59% #23 Red zone OFF +8 #31 72%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYGpass pro even DALpass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Von Miller OLB 9.0 sk#19
Rashan Gary LB 7.5 sk#29
James Houston DE 5.5 sk#57
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
NYGrun block line +20 DALrun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Quinnen Williams LDE 10.0 tfl#42
Otito Ogbonnia NT 3.0 tfl#304
Kenny Clark RDE 6.0 tfl#145
Rashan Gary WLB 7.0 tfl#110
DeMarvion Overshown LILB 1.0 tfl#499
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#25 131