no sides on this game yet · the record
LAR Davis Allen TE q TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 44%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 25 – TB 23 · LAR -2.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TB +4
TB +2.1
7/10
—at the line
| book | TB | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
13 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LAR · 2
| Davis Allen | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Head |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
TB · 11
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ayden Garnes | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| DeMonte Capehart | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Simmons | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Billy Schrauth | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · TB defense
LAR 68% #6
TB #32 74%
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · TB defense
LAR 277 #2
TB #27 255
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · TB defense
LAR +0.23 #2
TB #20 +0.07
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · TB defense
LAR 1.1 #1
TB #17 2.2
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
LAR
Pass attackTB offense · LAR defense
TB -0.03 #22
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Red zoneTB offense · LAR defense
TB 62% #19
LAR #8 56%
LAR
3rd downTB offense · LAR defense
TB 42% #13
LAR #6 36%
TB
Run gameLAR offense · TB defense
LAR +0.03 #7
TB #3 -0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
TB
3rd downLAR offense · TB defense
LAR 40% #16
TB #13 40%
LAR
Run block vs frontTB offense · LAR defense
TB 115 #21
LAR #18 120
TB
Run block vs frontLAR offense · TB defense
LAR 126 #7
TB #5 99
TB
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · LAR defense
TB 2.2 #17
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9
TB
Pass yardsTB offense · LAR defense
TB 221 #19
LAR #20 235
LAR
Run gameTB offense · LAR defense
TB +0.01 #12
LAR #12 -0.04
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
TB DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +18
#20 +0.07
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +25
#27 255
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#5 99
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#18 2.2
40% #16
3rd down
even
#13 40%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +26
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +16
TBpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#40
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#86
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
LARrun block
even
TBrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#512
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#106
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#282
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#235
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +12
#10 -0.07
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#20 235
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +9
#12 111
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#9 2.8
42% #13
3rd down
even
#6 36%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +11
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
even
LARpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#9
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#37
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
TBrun block
even
LARrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#56
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#212
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#22
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#82
115 #21rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 120