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Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00 · Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 3 – 1 TB
no sides on this game yet · the record
LAR Davis Allen TE q    TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III
TB win probability
ours 44% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 25 – TB 23 · LAR -2.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Buccaneersspread · margin, last 10
TB +4
TB +2.1
7/10
at the line
bookTBLAR
DK
CZR
Buccaneerstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

13 designations · as of 8:00 PM
LAR · 2
Davis AllenTEQUESTIONABLEHead
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
TB · 11
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Ayden GarnesCBOUTCoach's Decision
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
DeMonte CapehartDTOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah SimmonsDTOUTCoach's Decision
Billy SchrauthGOUTCoach's Decision
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · TB defense OFF +26 LAR 68% #6 TB #32 74%
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · TB defense OFF +25 LAR 277 #2 TB #27 255
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · TB defense OFF +18 LAR +0.23 #2 TB #20 +0.07
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · TB defense LINE +16 LAR 1.1 #1 TB #17 2.2 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
LAR Pass attackTB offense · LAR defense DEF +12 TB -0.03 #22 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Red zoneTB offense · LAR defense DEF +11 TB 62% #19 LAR #8 56%
LAR 3rd downTB offense · LAR defense DEF +7 TB 42% #13 LAR #6 36%
TB Run gameLAR offense · TB defense DEF +4 LAR +0.03 #7 TB #3 -0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
TB 3rd downLAR offense · TB defense DEF +3 LAR 40% #16 TB #13 40%
LAR Run block vs frontTB offense · LAR defense FRONT +3 TB 115 #21 LAR #18 120
TB Run block vs frontLAR offense · TB defense FRONT +2 LAR 126 #7 TB #5 99
TB Pass pro vs rushTB offense · LAR defense LINE +1 TB 2.2 #17 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #9
TB Pass yardsTB offense · LAR defense OFF +1 TB 221 #19 LAR #20 235
LAR Run gameTB offense · LAR defense DEF +0 TB +0.01 #12 LAR #12 -0.04

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

TB DEFENSE LAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAR offense against what it runs into

LAR OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 TB DEFENSE

LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.

+0.23 #2 Pass attack OFF +18 #20 +0.07
+0.03 #7 Run game even #3 -0.07
277 #2 Pass yards OFF +25 #27 255
127 #7 Rush yards even #5 99
1.4 #2 Pass pro vs rush OFF +16 #18 2.2
40% #16 3rd down even #13 40%
68% #6 Red zone OFF +26 #32 74%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LARpass pro line +16 TBpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB 7.0 sk#40
Vita Vea DT 4.5 sk#86
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
LARrun block even TBrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Calijah Kancey LDE 1.0 tfl#512
Vita Vea NT 7.0 tfl#106
A'Shawn Robinson RDE 3.0 tfl#282
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
Alex Anzalone LILB 4.0 tfl#235
126 #7rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 99