Los Angeles Rams
@
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
MODEL TB 43%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· Raymond James Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 3 – 1 TB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
LAR OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
TB OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
LAR OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +18
#20 +0.07
+0.03 #7
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +25
#27 255
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#5 99
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#18 2.2
40% #16
3rd down
even
#13 40%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +26
#32 74%
TB OFFENSE
vs
LAR DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
DEF +12
#10 -0.07
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
221 #19
Pass yards
even
#20 235
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +9
#12 111
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
42% #13
3rd down
even
#6 36%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +11
#8 56%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
LAR PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sacks '25
Byron Young LB
12.0 sacks '25
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 2.8
TB PASS RUSH
vs
LAR PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
1.4 #2
sacks allowed /g
#9 2.2
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
LAR
Matthew Stafford QB
vs #20 PASS D
282.1 pass y/g 4/10
Kyren Williams RB
vs #3 RUN D
71.8 rush y/g 5/10
Puka Nacua WR1
vs #20 PASS D
107.7 rec y/g 5/10
Davante Adams WR2
vs #20 PASS D
57.3 rec y/g 7/10
Jordan Whittington WR3
vs #20 PASS D
12.1 rec y/g 3/10
Colby Parkinson TE
vs #20 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 7/10
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #10 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #12 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #10 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #10 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #10 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #10 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.