Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Tennessee Titans
MODEL TEN 43%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· Nissan Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 2 – 0 TEN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PIT OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
TEN OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PIT OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
OFF +13
#29 +0.17
+0.02 #10
Run game
OFF +13
#23 +0.01
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#26 248
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +11
#15 115
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
41% #14
3rd down
even
#21 42%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +19
#30 71%
TEN OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +14
#17 +0.03
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#30 261
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +17
#13 113
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +21
#6 2.8
32% #32
3rd down
even
#25 43%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +11
#9 58%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.8
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #29 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #23 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #29 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #29 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #29 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #29 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #17 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #20 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #17 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #17 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #17 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #17 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.