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Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00 · Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 2 – 0 TEN
no sides on this game yet · the record
TEN win probability
ours 38% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 25 – TEN 20 · PIT -4.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Titansspread · margin, last 10
TEN +1.25
TEN +4.0
2/10
at the line
bookTENPIT
DK
CZR
Titanstotal · points in the game, last 10
42.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Joshua WilliamsCBOUTPectoral · IR
Tanoh KpassagnonDEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cedric GrayLBOUTConcussion
Dorian MausiLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Milo EiflerLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kendell BrooksSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Andre JamesCQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · PIT defense RUSH +25 TEN 3.2 #29 PIT #4 3.1
PIT Red zonePIT offense · TEN defense OFF +19 PIT 66% #11 TEN #30 71%
PIT Run block vs frontTEN offense · PIT defense FRONT +18 TEN 91 #31 PIT #13 114
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · TEN defense LINE +17 PIT 1.9 #8 TEN #25 1.9 Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
PIT Pass attackTEN offense · PIT defense DEF +14 TEN -0.22 #31 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Pass attackPIT offense · TEN defense OFF +13 PIT +0.03 #16 TEN #29 +0.17
PIT Run gamePIT offense · TEN defense OFF +13 PIT +0.02 #10 TEN #23 +0.02
PIT Red zoneTEN offense · PIT defense DEF +11 TEN 61% #20 PIT #9 58%
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
PIT 3rd downPIT offense · TEN defense OFF +7 PIT 41% #14 TEN #21 42%
PIT 3rd downTEN offense · PIT defense DEF +7 TEN 32% #32 PIT #25 43%
TEN Run block vs frontPIT offense · TEN defense FRONT +7 PIT 98 #26 TEN #19 120 Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #7
PIT Run gameTEN offense · PIT defense DEF +7 TEN -0.06 #27 PIT #20 +0.00
PIT Pass yardsPIT offense · TEN defense OFF +4 PIT 214 #22 TEN #26 248
TEN Pass yardsTEN offense · PIT defense OFF +1 TEN 191 #29 PIT #30 261

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

TEN DEFENSE PIT OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PIT offense against what it runs into

PIT OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC TEN DEFENSE

PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.

+0.03 #16 Pass attack OFF +13 #29 +0.17
+0.02 #10 Run game OFF +13 #23 +0.02
214 #22 Pass yards even #26 248
103 #26 Rush yards DEF +11 #15 115
1.8 #9 Pass pro vs rush even #13 2.5
41% #14 3rd down even #21 42%
66% #11 Red zone OFF +19 #30 71%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PITpass pro line +17 TENpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE 7.5 sk#34
Jacob Martin DE 5.5 sk#59
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
PITrun block even TENrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
John Franklin-Myers LDE 6.0 tfl#146
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl#7
Jordan Elliott RDT 1.0 tfl#589
Jermaine Johnson II RDE 5.0 tfl#203
Cedric Gray WLB 7.0 tfl#94
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120