no sides on this game yet · the record
TEN win probability
ours 38%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 25 – TEN 20 · PIT -4.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
TEN +1.25
TEN +4.0
2/10
—at the line
| book | TEN | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
42.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
TEN · 7
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Joshua Williams | CB | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Tanoh Kpassagnon | DE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cedric Gray | LB | OUT | Concussion |
| Dorian Mausi | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Milo Eifler | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kendell Brooks | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Andre James | C | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
PIT
Pass pro vs rushTEN offense · PIT defense
TEN 3.2 #29
PIT #4 3.1
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · TEN defense
PIT 66% #11
TEN #30 71%
PIT
Run block vs frontTEN offense · PIT defense
TEN 91 #31
PIT #13 114
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · TEN defense
PIT 1.9 #8
TEN #25 1.9
Jeffery Simmons DT 11.0 sk #11
PIT
Pass attackTEN offense · PIT defense
TEN -0.22 #31
PIT #17 +0.03
PIT
Pass attackPIT offense · TEN defense
PIT +0.03 #16
TEN #29 +0.17
PIT
Run gamePIT offense · TEN defense
PIT +0.02 #10
TEN #23 +0.02
PIT
Red zoneTEN offense · PIT defense
TEN 61% #20
PIT #9 58%
6 more comparisons, gap under 11
PIT
3rd downPIT offense · TEN defense
PIT 41% #14
TEN #21 42%
PIT
3rd downTEN offense · PIT defense
TEN 32% #32
PIT #25 43%
TEN
Run block vs frontPIT offense · TEN defense
PIT 98 #26
TEN #19 120
Jeffery Simmons LDT 17.0 tfl #6
PIT
Run gameTEN offense · PIT defense
TEN -0.06 #27
PIT #20 +0.00
PIT
Pass yardsPIT offense · TEN defense
PIT 214 #22
TEN #26 248
TEN
Pass yardsTEN offense · PIT defense
TEN 191 #29
PIT #30 261
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC TEN DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
TEN defence: Dennard Wilson called these → Gus Bradley calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
OFF +13
#29 +0.17
+0.02 #10
Run game
OFF +13
#23 +0.02
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#26 248
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +11
#15 115
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
41% #14
3rd down
even
#21 42%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +19
#30 71%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
line +17
TENpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sk#11
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sk#32
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sk#64
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#25 1.9
PITrun block
even
TENrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
John Franklin-Myers LDE
6.0 tfl#140
Jeffery Simmons LDT
17.0 tfl#6
Jordan Elliott RDT
1.0 tfl#493
Jermaine Johnson II RDE
5.0 tfl#202
Cedric Gray WLB
7.0 tfl#89
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#19 120
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TEN offense against what it runs into
TEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
TEN offence: Nick Holz called these → Brian Daboll calls it now.
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +14
#17 +0.03
-0.06 #27
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
191 #29
Pass yards
even
#30 261
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +17
#13 113
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#5 2.8
32% #32
3rd down
even
#25 43%
61% #20
Red zone
DEF +11
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TENpass pro
rush +25
PITpass rush
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#34
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#43
3.2 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
TENrun block
front +18
PITrun D
LTDan Moore Jr.95%
LGPeter Skoronski100%
CAustin Schlottmann30% NYG
RGFernando Carmona—
RTJC Latham98%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#575
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#148
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#62
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#47
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#137
91 #31rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114