Indianapolis Colts
@
Cleveland Browns
MODEL CLE 43%
Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00
· Huntington Bank Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 0 – 1 CLE
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
—
Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
IND OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
CLE OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
IND OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +8
#4 -0.13
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#3 189
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#16 116
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#3 3.1
43% #7
3rd down
even
#8 37%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +13
#20 66%
CLE OFFENSE
vs
IND DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +13
#19 +0.04
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +16
#9 -0.05
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#31 262
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +20
#7 102
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +11
#15 2.3
34% #28
3rd down
even
#26 43%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +23
#5 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
IND PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sacks '25
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sacks '25
Adetomiwa Adebawore DT
4.0 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 2.3
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
IND PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.7 #8
sacks allowed /g
#15 3.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
IND
Daniel Jones QB
vs #4 PASS D
238.5 pass y/g 5/10
Jonathan Taylor RB
vs #5 RUN D
93.2 rush y/g 2/10
Alec Pierce WR1
vs #4 PASS D
66.9 rec y/g 7/10
Josh Downs WR2
vs #4 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 5/10
Ashton Dulin WR3
vs #4 PASS D
8.8 rec y/g 3/10
Tyler Warren TE
vs #4 PASS D
48.1 rec y/g 2/10
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #19 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #9 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #19 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #19 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #19 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #19 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.