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Week 17 · 2027-01-03 · 13:00 · Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 0 – 1 CLE
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Sean McKeon TE q    CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders · Joe Royer TE out
CLE win probability
ours 48% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 23 – CLE 22 · IND -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Brownsspread · margin, last 10
CLE +2.5
CLE +0.5
4/10
at the line
bookCLEIND
DK
CZR
Brownstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

25 designations · as of 4:00 PM
IND · 10
Riley LeonardQBOUTCoach's Decision
DJ GiddensRBOUTCoach's Decision
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Johnathan EdwardsCBOUTCoach's Decision
Dalton TuckerGOUTCoach's Decision
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
George Gumbs Jr.LBOUTCoach's Decision
CLE · 15
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Taylen GreenQBOUTCoach's Decision
Dylan SampsonRBOUTKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
Joe RoyerTEOUTPersonal
11 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Noah IgbinogheneCBOUTCoach's Decision
Toriano Pride Jr.CBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck
Justin JeffersonLBOUTCoach's Decision
Daniel ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND Red zoneCLE offense · IND defense DEF +23 CLE 55% #28 IND #5 55%
IND Run block vs frontCLE offense · IND defense FRONT +20 CLE 97 #27 IND #7 102
IND Run gameCLE offense · IND defense DEF +16 CLE -0.05 #25 IND #9 -0.05
IND Pass attackCLE offense · IND defense DEF +13 CLE -0.29 #32 IND #19 +0.04
IND Red zoneIND offense · CLE defense OFF +13 IND 68% #7 CLE #20 66%
IND Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · IND defense RUSH +11 CLE 3.0 #26 IND #15 2.3
CLE Pass attackIND offense · CLE defense DEF +8 IND +0.06 #12 CLE #4 -0.13
CLE Pass yardsIND offense · CLE defense DEF +5 IND 240 #8 CLE #3 189
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
CLE Pass pro vs rushIND offense · CLE defense RUSH +4 IND 1.7 #7 CLE #3 3.1
IND 3rd downCLE offense · IND defense DEF +2 CLE 34% #28 IND #26 43%
CLE Run block vs frontIND offense · CLE defense FRONT +2 IND 118 #17 CLE #15 116
IND Run gameIND offense · CLE defense OFF +2 IND +0.09 #3 CLE #5 -0.05
IND 3rd downIND offense · CLE defense OFF +1 IND 43% #7 CLE #8 37%
IND Pass yardsCLE offense · IND defense DEF +0 CLE 185 #31 IND #31 262

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

CLE DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC CLE DEFENSE

CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.

+0.06 #12 Pass attack DEF +8 #4 -0.13
+0.09 #3 Run game even #5 -0.05
240 #8 Pass yards even #3 189
118 #17 Rush yards even #16 116
1.7 #7 Pass pro vs rush even #3 3.1
43% #7 3rd down even #8 37%
68% #7 Red zone OFF +13 #20 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro even CLEpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jared Verse DE 7.5 sk#29
Maliek Collins DT 6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE 5.0 sk#76
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
INDrun block even CLErun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Isaiah McGuire LDE 8.0 tfl#74
Mason Graham LDT 7.0 tfl#118
Maliek Collins RDT 7.0 tfl#106
Jared Verse RDE 11.0 tfl#30
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
118 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116