no sides on this game yet · the record
IND Riley Leonard QB out · DJ Giddens RB out · D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Sean McKeon TE q CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Taylen Green QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders · Joe Royer TE out
CLE win probability
ours 48%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 23 – CLE 22 · IND -0.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CLE +2.5
CLE +0.5
4/10
—at the line
| book | CLE | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
25 designations · as of 4:00 PM
IND · 10
| Riley Leonard | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| DJ Giddens | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Johnathan Edwards | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dalton Tucker | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
| George Gumbs Jr. | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
CLE · 15
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Taylen Green | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
| Joe Royer | TE | OUT | Personal |
11 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Noah Igbinoghene | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Toriano Pride Jr. | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
| Justin Jefferson | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Daniel Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
Red zoneCLE offense · IND defense
CLE 55% #28
IND #5 55%
IND
Run block vs frontCLE offense · IND defense
CLE 97 #27
IND #7 102
IND
Run gameCLE offense · IND defense
CLE -0.05 #25
IND #9 -0.05
IND
Pass attackCLE offense · IND defense
CLE -0.29 #32
IND #19 +0.04
IND
Red zoneIND offense · CLE defense
IND 68% #7
CLE #20 66%
IND
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · IND defense
CLE 3.0 #26
IND #15 2.3
CLE
Pass attackIND offense · CLE defense
IND +0.06 #12
CLE #4 -0.13
CLE
Pass yardsIND offense · CLE defense
IND 240 #8
CLE #3 189
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
CLE
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · CLE defense
IND 1.7 #7
CLE #3 3.1
IND
3rd downCLE offense · IND defense
CLE 34% #28
IND #26 43%
CLE
Run block vs frontIND offense · CLE defense
IND 118 #17
CLE #15 116
IND
Run gameIND offense · CLE defense
IND +0.09 #3
CLE #5 -0.05
IND
3rd downIND offense · CLE defense
IND 43% #7
CLE #8 37%
IND
Pass yardsCLE offense · IND defense
CLE 185 #31
IND #31 262
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
DEF +8
#4 -0.13
+0.09 #3
Run game
even
#5 -0.05
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#3 189
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#16 116
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
even
#3 3.1
43% #7
3rd down
even
#8 37%
68% #7
Red zone
OFF +13
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
even
CLEpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#29
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#76
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#3 3.1
INDrun block
even
CLErun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#74
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#118
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#106
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#30
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
118 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#15 116
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
IND DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +13
#19 +0.04
-0.05 #25
Run game
DEF +16
#9 -0.05
185 #31
Pass yards
even
#31 262
97 #27
Rush yards
DEF +20
#7 102
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +10
#16 2.3
34% #28
3rd down
even
#26 43%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +23
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
rush +11
INDpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#20
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#99
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#104
3.0 #26sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#15 2.3
CLErun block
front +20
INDrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#150
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#192
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#51
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#23
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
97 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 102