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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00 · Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: IND 0 – 1 PHI
no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q    PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 63% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 22 – PHI 26 · PHI -4.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Eaglesspread · margin, last 10
PHI -5.5
PHI −4.3
3/10
at the line
bookPHIIND
DK
CZR
Eaglestotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
1/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
IND · 6
D.J. MontgomeryWROUTAbdomen · IR
Carson TowtTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Will MalloryTEOUTThumb · IR
Alec PierceWRQUESTIONABLEWrist
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
Sean McKeonTEQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Austin AjiakeLBOUTHamstring
PHI · 5
Eli StowersTEOUTHamstring · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Jakorian BennettCBOUTKnee · IR
Landon DickersonGOUTKnee
Jonathan GreenardLBOUTPectoral
Andre' SamSOUTFoot · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND 3rd downIND offense · PHI defense OFF +15 IND 43% #7 PHI #22 42%
IND Run gameIND offense · PHI defense OFF +13 IND +0.09 #3 PHI #16 -0.02
IND Pass pro vs rushIND offense · PHI defense LINE +12 IND 1.8 #7 PHI #19 2.1
PHI Pass yardsPHI offense · IND defense OFF +8 PHI 206 #23 IND #31 262
PHI Pass attackIND offense · PHI defense DEF +7 IND +0.06 #12 PHI #5 -0.12
PHI Pass attackPHI offense · IND defense OFF +6 PHI +0.04 #13 IND #19 +0.04
PHI 3rd downPHI offense · IND defense OFF +5 PHI 38% #21 IND #26 43%
IND Run gamePHI offense · IND defense DEF +5 PHI +0.01 #14 IND #9 -0.05
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
IND Run block vs frontIND offense · PHI defense LINE +4 IND 116 #18 PHI #22 126
PHI Run block vs frontPHI offense · IND defense LINE +4 PHI 119 #13 IND #17 117
IND Red zoneIND offense · PHI defense OFF +3 IND 68% #7 PHI #10 59%
PHI Red zonePHI offense · IND defense OFF +3 PHI 74% #2 IND #5 55%
PHI Pass yardsIND offense · PHI defense DEF +2 IND 240 #8 PHI #6 204
IND Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · IND defense RUSH +0 PHI 2.2 #17 IND #17 2.2

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

PHI DEFENSE IND OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units IND offense against what it runs into

IND OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 PHI DEFENSE
+0.06 #12 Pass attack even #5 -0.12
+0.09 #3 Run game OFF +13 #16 -0.02
240 #8 Pass yards even #6 204
118 #17 Rush yards even #22 124
1.7 #8 Pass pro vs rush even #12 2.5
43% #7 3rd down OFF +15 #22 42%
68% #7 Red zone even #10 59%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

INDpass pro line +12 PHIpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jalyx Hunt LB 6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT 6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT 4.5 sk#82
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
INDrun block even PHIrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jalen Carter LDE 5.0 tfl#207
Moro Ojomo RDE 6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB 1.0 tfl#471
Zack Baun LILB 7.0 tfl#105
Jihaad Campbell RILB 2.0 tfl#379
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126