no sides on this game yet · the record
IND D.J. Montgomery WR out · Carson Towt TE out · Will Mallory TE out · Alec Pierce WR q → Josh Downs · Sean McKeon TE q PHI Eli Stowers TE out
PHI win probability
ours 63%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected IND 22 – PHI 26 · PHI -4.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
PHI -5.5
PHI −4.3
3/10
—at the line
| book | PHI | IND |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
1/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
11 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
IND · 6
| D.J. Montgomery | WR | OUT | Abdomen · IR |
| Carson Towt | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Will Mallory | TE | OUT | Thumb · IR |
| Alec Pierce | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Wrist |
|
Next up: Josh Downs WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 35 yds · 59% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Pierce: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 67 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
IND without him, 2 games last season: 59% pass · 33.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 55% pass · 27.2 pts · 59 plays
| |||
| Sean McKeon | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Austin Ajiake | LB | OUT | Hamstring |
PHI · 5
| Eli Stowers | TE | OUT | Hamstring · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jakorian Bennett | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Landon Dickerson | G | OUT | Knee |
| Jonathan Greenard | LB | OUT | Pectoral |
| Andre' Sam | S | OUT | Foot · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
IND
3rd downIND offense · PHI defense
IND 43% #7
PHI #22 42%
IND
Run gameIND offense · PHI defense
IND +0.09 #3
PHI #16 -0.02
IND
Pass pro vs rushIND offense · PHI defense
IND 1.8 #7
PHI #19 2.1
PHI
Pass yardsPHI offense · IND defense
PHI 206 #23
IND #31 262
PHI
Pass attackIND offense · PHI defense
IND +0.06 #12
PHI #5 -0.12
PHI
Pass attackPHI offense · IND defense
PHI +0.04 #13
IND #19 +0.04
PHI
3rd downPHI offense · IND defense
PHI 38% #21
IND #26 43%
IND
Run gamePHI offense · IND defense
PHI +0.01 #14
IND #9 -0.05
6 more comparisons, gap under 5
IND
Run block vs frontIND offense · PHI defense
IND 116 #18
PHI #22 126
PHI
Run block vs frontPHI offense · IND defense
PHI 119 #13
IND #17 117
IND
Red zoneIND offense · PHI defense
IND 68% #7
PHI #10 59%
PHI
Red zonePHI offense · IND defense
PHI 74% #2
IND #5 55%
PHI
Pass yardsIND offense · PHI defense
IND 240 #8
PHI #6 204
IND
Pass pro vs rushPHI offense · IND defense
PHI 2.2 #17
IND #17 2.2
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units IND offense against what it runs into
IND OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
PHI DEFENSE
+0.06 #12
Pass attack
even
#5 -0.12
+0.09 #3
Run game
OFF +13
#16 -0.02
240 #8
Pass yards
even
#6 204
118 #17
Rush yards
even
#22 124
1.7 #8
Pass pro vs rush
even
#12 2.5
43% #7
3rd down
OFF +15
#22 42%
68% #7
Red zone
even
#10 59%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
INDpass pro
line +12
PHIpass rush
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jalyx Hunt LB
6.5 sk#46
Moro Ojomo DT
6.0 sk#56
Jordan Davis DT
4.5 sk#82
1.8 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
INDrun block
even
PHIrun D
LTBernhard Raimann97%
LGQuenton Nelson97%
CTanor Bortolini92%
RGMatt Goncalves100%
RTJalen Travis30%
Jalen Carter LDE
5.0 tfl#207
Moro Ojomo RDE
6.0 tfl#137
Nolan Smith Jr. WLB
1.0 tfl#471
Zack Baun LILB
7.0 tfl#105
Jihaad Campbell RILB
2.0 tfl#379
116 #18rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#22 126
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PHI offense against what it runs into
PHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
IND DEFENSE
PHI offence: Kevin Patullo called these → Sean Mannion calls it now.
+0.04 #13
Pass attack
even
#19 +0.04
+0.01 #14
Run game
even
#9 -0.05
206 #23
Pass yards
OFF +8
#31 262
117 #18
Rush yards
DEF +11
#7 102
2.1 #12
Pass pro vs rush
even
#16 2.3
38% #21
3rd down
even
#26 43%
74% #2
Red zone
even
#5 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PHIpass pro
even
INDpass rush
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Laiatu Latu DE
8.5 sk#22
Arden Key DE
4.0 sk#93
DeForest Buckner DT
4.0 sk#90
2.2 #17sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#17 2.2
PHIrun block
even
INDrun D
LTJordan Mailata99%
LGLandon Dickerson90%
CCam Jurgens92%
RGTyler Steen96%
RTLane Johnson76%
Arden Key LDE
6.0 tfl#135
Grover Stewart LDT
5.0 tfl#171
DeForest Buckner RDT
9.0 tfl#60
Laiatu Latu RDE
12.0 tfl#26
Jaylon Carlies WLB
—
119 #13rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 117