Atlanta Falcons
@
Cleveland Browns
MODEL CLE 50%
Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00
· Huntington Bank Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 0 CLE
—
Vegas line (context)
—
Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
CLE OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
ATL OFFENSE
vs
CLE DEFENSE
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
DEF +17
#4 -0.13
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +18
#5 -0.05
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +17
#3 189
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +8
#16 116
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#3 3.1
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +22
#8 37%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#20 66%
CLE OFFENSE
vs
ATL DEFENSE
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +19
#13 -0.03
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +16
#15 222
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#24 126
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +24
#2 3.4
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +13
#15 40%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +15
#13 62%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
ATL PASS RUSH
vs
CLE PASS PRO
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sacks '25
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sacks '25
Jalon Walker LB
5.5 sacks '25
3.0 #26
sacks allowed /g
#3 3.4
CLE PASS RUSH
vs
ATL PASS PRO
Jared Verse DE
8.5 sacks '25
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sacks '25
Alex Wright DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.5 #4
sacks allowed /g
#2 3.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
ATL
Tua Tagovailoa QB
2025: MIA
vs #4 PASS D
190.0 pass y/g 5/10
Bijan Robinson RB
vs #5 RUN D
86.9 rush y/g 4/10
Drake London WR1
vs #4 PASS D
76.6 rec y/g 6/10
Jahan Dotson WR2
2025: PHI
vs #4 PASS D
16.4 rec y/g 3/10
Olamide Zaccheaus WR3
2025: CHI
vs #4 PASS D
20.6 rec y/g 3/10
Kyle Pitts Sr. TE
vs #4 PASS D
54.6 rec y/g 5/10
CLE
Deshaun Watson QB
vs #13 PASS D
— pass y/g
Quinshon Judkins RB
vs #25 RUN D
59.1 rush y/g 3/10
Jerry Jeudy WR1
vs #13 PASS D
35.4 rec y/g 4/10
KC Concepcion WR2
vs #13 PASS D
— rec y/g
Denzel Boston WR3
vs #13 PASS D
— rec y/g
Harold Fannin Jr. TE
vs #13 PASS D
45.7 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.