no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders
CLE win probability
ours 69%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 18 – CLE 24 · CLE -6.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CLE +0
CLE −6.5
3/10
—at the line
| book | CLE | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
40.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
16 designations · as of 11:45 PM
ATL · 7
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
|
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays | with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
| |||
| Tua Tagovailoa | QB | OUT | Oblique |
| Trey Sermon | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | OUT | Achilles |
| Da'Shawn Hand | DT | OUT | Quadriceps |
| Cameron Williams | OL | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Chris Lindstrom | G | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
CLE · 9
| Dillon Gabriel | QB | OUT | Back · IR |
| Dylan Sampson | RB | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays | with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Parker Brailsford | C | OUT | Thumb |
| Elijah Chatman | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kalia Davis | DT | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Kendrick Green | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Teven Jenkins | G | OUT | Back |
| Edefuan Ulofoshio | LB | OUT | Biceps · IR |
| Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah | LB | OUT | Neck |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL
Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · ATL defense
CLE 3.3 #30
ATL #5 3.1
James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
CLE
3rd downATL offense · CLE defense
ATL 34% #30
CLE #8 37%
ATL
Pass attackCLE offense · ATL defense
CLE -0.29 #32
ATL #13 -0.03
CLE
Run gameATL offense · CLE defense
ATL -0.03 #23
CLE #5 -0.05
CLE
Pass attackATL offense · CLE defense
ATL -0.01 #21
CLE #4 -0.13
CLE
Pass yardsATL offense · CLE defense
ATL 218 #20
CLE #3 189
ATL
Pass yardsCLE offense · ATL defense
CLE 185 #31
ATL #15 222
ATL
Red zoneCLE offense · ATL defense
CLE 55% #28
ATL #13 62%
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
ATL
3rd downCLE offense · ATL defense
CLE 34% #28
ATL #15 40%
ATL
Run block vs frontCLE offense · ATL defense
CLE 96 #27
ATL #16 116
ATL
Run block vs frontATL offense · CLE defense
ATL 125 #9
CLE #18 118
ATL
Red zoneATL offense · CLE defense
ATL 65% #13
CLE #20 66%
CLE
Pass pro vs rushATL offense · CLE defense
ATL 1.9 #9
CLE #8 2.6
ATL
Run gameCLE offense · ATL defense
CLE -0.05 #25
ATL #25 +0.03
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units ATL offense against what it runs into
ATL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC CLE DEFENSE
ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.
-0.01 #21
Pass attack
DEF +17
#4 -0.13
-0.03 #23
Run game
DEF +18
#5 -0.05
218 #20
Pass yards
DEF +17
#3 189
126 #8
Rush yards
OFF +8
#16 116
1.5 #4
Pass pro vs rush
even
#3 3.1
34% #30
3rd down
DEF +22
#8 37%
65% #13
Red zone
even
#20 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
ATLpass pro
even
CLEpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Jared Verse DE
7.5 sk#31
Maliek Collins DT
6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE
5.0 sk#71
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.6
ATLrun block
line +9
CLErun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Isaiah McGuire LDE
8.0 tfl#75
Mason Graham LDT
7.0 tfl#115
Maliek Collins RDT
7.0 tfl#104
Jared Verse RDE
11.0 tfl#31
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
—
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 118
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CLE offense against what it runs into
CLE OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
ATL DEFENSE
CLE offence: Tommy Rees called these → Travis Switzer calls it now.
-0.29 #32
Pass attack
DEF +19
#13 -0.03
-0.05 #25
Run game
even
#25 +0.03
185 #31
Pass yards
DEF +16
#15 222
97 #27
Rush yards
even
#24 126
3.0 #26
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +24
#2 3.4
34% #28
3rd down
DEF +13
#15 40%
55% #28
Red zone
DEF +15
#13 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CLEpass pro
rush +25
ATLpass rush
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
James Pearce Jr. DE
10.5 sk#14
Brandon Dorlus DE
8.5 sk#20
Gervon Dexter Sr. DT
6.0 sk#50
3.3 #30sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#5 3.1
CLErun block
front +11
ATLrun D
LTSpencer Fano—
LGZion Johnson94% LAC
CElgton Jenkins93% GB
RGTeven Jenkins31%
RTTytus Howard95% HOU
LaCale London LDE
7.0 tfl#106
Gervon Dexter Sr. NT
6.0 tfl#131
Brandon Dorlus RDE
11.0 tfl#34
Za'Darius Smith WLB
2.0 tfl#424
Kendal Daniels LILB
—
96 #27rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#16 116