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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00 · Huntington Bank Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: ATL 1 – 0 CLE
no sides on this game yet · the record
ATL Michael Penix Jr. QB out → Cooper Rush · Tua Tagovailoa QB out · Trey Sermon RB out    CLE Dillon Gabriel QB out · Dylan Sampson RB out → Raheim Sanders
CLE win probability
ours 69% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected ATL 18 – CLE 24 · CLE -6.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Brownsspread · margin, last 10
CLE +0
CLE −6.5
3/10
at the line
bookCLEATL
DK
CZR
Brownstotal · points in the game, last 10
40.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

16 designations · as of 11:45 PM
ATL · 7
Michael Penix Jr.QBOUTKnee - ACL
Next up: Cooper Rush QB3 · 13 att · 76 pass yds · 50% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Jr.: 31 att · 220 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (9 g)
ATL without him, 8 games last season: 52% pass · 18.6 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (9): 54% pass · 24.0 pts · 61 plays
Tua TagovailoaQBOUTOblique
Trey SermonRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Billy Bowman Jr.CBOUTAchilles
Da'Shawn HandDTOUTQuadriceps
Cameron WilliamsOLOUTAnkle · IR
Chris LindstromGQUESTIONABLEConcussion
CLE · 9
Dillon GabrielQBOUTBack · IR
Dylan SampsonRBOUTKnee
Next up: Raheim Sanders RB3 · 7 car · 23 rush yds · 1 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Sampson: 4 car · 12 rush yds · 3 tgt · 26% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
CLE without him, 2 games last season: 58% pass · 25.5 pts · 56 plays  |  with him (15): 57% pass · 21.9 pts · 58 plays
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Parker BrailsfordCOUTThumb
Elijah ChatmanDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kalia DavisDTOUTQuadriceps · IR
Kendrick GreenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Teven JenkinsGOUTBack
Edefuan UlofoshioLBOUTBiceps · IR
Jeremiah Owusu-KoramoahLBOUTNeck

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
ATL Pass pro vs rushCLE offense · ATL defense RUSH +25 CLE 3.3 #30 ATL #5 3.1 James Pearce Jr. DE 10.5 sk #14
CLE 3rd downATL offense · CLE defense DEF +22 ATL 34% #30 CLE #8 37%
ATL Pass attackCLE offense · ATL defense DEF +19 CLE -0.29 #32 ATL #13 -0.03
CLE Run gameATL offense · CLE defense DEF +18 ATL -0.03 #23 CLE #5 -0.05
CLE Pass attackATL offense · CLE defense DEF +17 ATL -0.01 #21 CLE #4 -0.13
CLE Pass yardsATL offense · CLE defense DEF +17 ATL 218 #20 CLE #3 189
ATL Pass yardsCLE offense · ATL defense DEF +16 CLE 185 #31 ATL #15 222
ATL Red zoneCLE offense · ATL defense DEF +15 CLE 55% #28 ATL #13 62%
6 more comparisons, gap under 15
ATL 3rd downCLE offense · ATL defense DEF +13 CLE 34% #28 ATL #15 40%
ATL Run block vs frontCLE offense · ATL defense FRONT +11 CLE 96 #27 ATL #16 116
ATL Run block vs frontATL offense · CLE defense LINE +9 ATL 125 #9 CLE #18 118
ATL Red zoneATL offense · CLE defense OFF +7 ATL 65% #13 CLE #20 66%
CLE Pass pro vs rushATL offense · CLE defense RUSH +1 ATL 1.9 #9 CLE #8 2.6
ATL Run gameCLE offense · ATL defense DEF +0 CLE -0.05 #25 ATL #25 +0.03

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

CLE DEFENSE ATL OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units ATL offense against what it runs into

ATL OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC CLE DEFENSE

ATL offence: Zac Robinson called these → Tommy Rees calls it now.
CLE defence: Jim Schwartz called these → Mike Rutenberg calls it now.

-0.01 #21 Pass attack DEF +17 #4 -0.13
-0.03 #23 Run game DEF +18 #5 -0.05
218 #20 Pass yards DEF +17 #3 189
126 #8 Rush yards OFF +8 #16 116
1.5 #4 Pass pro vs rush even #3 3.1
34% #30 3rd down DEF +22 #8 37%
65% #13 Red zone even #20 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

ATLpass pro even CLEpass rush
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Jared Verse DE 7.5 sk#31
Maliek Collins DT 6.5 sk#49
Derek Barnett DE 5.0 sk#71
1.9 #9sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.6
ATLrun block line +9 CLErun D
LTJake Matthews97%
LGMatthew Bergeron93%
CRyan Neuzil100%
RGChris Lindstrom99%
RTJawaan Taylor91% KAN
Isaiah McGuire LDE 8.0 tfl#75
Mason Graham LDT 7.0 tfl#115
Maliek Collins RDT 7.0 tfl#104
Jared Verse RDE 11.0 tfl#31
Easton Mascarenas-Arnold WLB
125 #9rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#18 118