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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 20:20 · Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 0 GB
no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out    GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 50% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 24 – GB 24 · GB -0.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Packersspread · margin, last 10
GB -1.5
GB −0.0
4/10
at the line
bookGBBUF
DK
CZR
Packerstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
BUF · 11
Ty JohnsonRBOUTHamstring
Skyler BellWROUTCoach's Decision
Tyrell ShaversWROUTKnee - ACL
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Dorian StrongCBOUTNeck
Mike DannaDEOUTCoach's Decision
T.J. SandersDTOUTKnee
Zane DurantDTOUTUndisclosed · IR
Ar'maj Reed-AdamsGOUTCoach's Decision
Jude BowryOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jalon KilgoreSOUTCoach's Decision
Jedrick Wills Jr.OTQUESTIONABLEBack
GB · 11
Josh JacobsRBOUTPersonal
J. Michael SturdivantWROUTCoach's Decision
Savion WilliamsWROUTAnkle · IR
Josh WhyleTEQUESTIONABLENeck
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Anthony CampbellDTOUTCoach's Decision
Jordon RileyDTOUTAchilles
Warren BrinsonDTOUTCalf
Aaron BanksGOUTKnee
Ty'Ron HopperLBOUTAchilles
Travis GloverOTOUTCoach's Decision
Brandon CisseCBQUESTIONABLEUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB 3rd downGB offense · BUF defense OFF +22 GB 49% #2 BUF #24 42%
BUF Pass attackBUF offense · GB defense OFF +17 BUF +0.16 #6 GB #23 +0.08
BUF Pass yardsGB offense · BUF defense DEF +17 GB 226 #18 BUF #1 170
BUF Run block vs frontBUF offense · GB defense LINE +16 BUF 160 #1 GB #17 118
BUF Run gameBUF offense · GB defense OFF +16 BUF +0.11 #1 GB #17 -0.02
BUF Red zoneBUF offense · GB defense OFF +14 BUF 72% #3 GB #17 64%
BUF 3rd downBUF offense · GB defense OFF +13 BUF 46% #3 GB #16 41%
GB Run block vs frontGB offense · BUF defense LINE +13 GB 120 #15 BUF #28 136
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
GB Pass pro vs rushGB offense · BUF defense LINE +12 GB 1.7 #7 BUF #19 2.1
GB Run gameGB offense · BUF defense OFF +11 GB -0.01 #19 BUF #30 +0.09
GB Red zoneGB offense · BUF defense OFF +8 GB 63% #16 BUF #24 68%
GB Pass attackGB offense · BUF defense OFF +4 GB +0.23 #3 BUF #7 -0.11
GB Pass yardsBUF offense · GB defense DEF +3 BUF 234 #13 GB #10 207
BUF Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · GB defense LINE +1 BUF 2.4 #19 GB #20 2.1 Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

GB DEFENSE BUF OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Run-heavy · 49% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units BUF offense against what it runs into

BUF OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC GB DEFENSE

BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.

+0.16 #6 Pass attack OFF +17 #23 +0.08
+0.11 #1 Run game OFF +16 #17 -0.02
234 #13 Pass yards even #10 207
160 #1 Rush yards OFF +17 #18 118
2.4 #19 Pass pro vs rush even #20 2.1
46% #3 3rd down OFF +13 #16 41%
72% #3 Red zone OFF +14 #17 64%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

BUFpass pro even GBpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT 4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT 3.5 sk#111
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
BUFrun block line +16 GBrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Karl Brooks LDE 1.0 tfl#492
Javon Hargrave NT 4.0 tfl#235
Devonte Wyatt RDE 6.0 tfl#157
Lukas Van Ness WLB 3.0 tfl#310
Edgerrin Cooper LILB 4.0 tfl#224
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118