Buffalo Bills
@
Green Bay Packers
MODEL GB 51%
Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 20:20
· Lambeau Field (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: BUF 1 – 0 GB
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
BUF OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
GB OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
BUF OFFENSE
vs
GB DEFENSE
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +16
#22 +0.08
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +16
#17 -0.02
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#10 207
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +17
#18 118
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#19 2.1
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +13
#16 41%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +14
#17 64%
GB OFFENSE
vs
BUF DEFENSE
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
-0.01 #19
Run game
OFF +11
#30 +0.09
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +17
#1 170
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +13
#28 136
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +13
#20 2.1
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +22
#24 42%
63% #15
Red zone
OFF +9
#24 68%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
BUF PASS RUSH
vs
GB PASS PRO
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sacks '25
Greg Rousseau LB
8.0 sacks '25
C.J. Gardner-Johnson SAF
3.0 sacks '25
1.7 #7
sacks allowed /g
#19 2.1
GB PASS RUSH
vs
BUF PASS PRO
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sacks '25
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sacks '25
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sacks '25
2.4 #19
sacks allowed /g
#20 2.1
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
BUF
Josh Allen QB
vs #22 PASS D
234.7 pass y/g 7/10
James Cook III RB
vs #17 RUN D
93.9 rush y/g 5/10
DJ Moore WR1
2025: CHI
vs #22 PASS D
42.0 rec y/g 5/10
Khalil Shakir WR2
vs #22 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 5/10
Joshua Palmer WR3
vs #22 PASS D
25.2 rec y/g 2/10
Dalton Kincaid TE
vs #22 PASS D
48.7 rec y/g 3/10
GB
Jordan Love QB
vs #7 PASS D
231.5 pass y/g 6/10
Josh Jacobs RB
vs #30 RUN D
61.5 rush y/g 5/10
Christian Watson WR1
vs #7 PASS D
58.8 rec y/g 3/10
Jayden Reed WR2
vs #7 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 3/6
Matthew Golden WR3
vs #7 PASS D
29.7 rec y/g 3/10
Tucker Kraft TE
vs #7 PASS D
61.1 rec y/g 2/8
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.