no sides on this game yet · the record
BUF Ty Johnson RB out · Skyler Bell WR out · Tyrell Shavers WR out GB Josh Jacobs RB out · J. Michael Sturdivant WR out · Savion Williams WR out · Josh Whyle TE q
GB win probability
ours 50%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected BUF 24 – GB 24 · GB -0.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
GB -1.5
GB −0.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | GB | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
22 designations · as of 8:00 PM
BUF · 11
| Ty Johnson | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| Skyler Bell | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyrell Shavers | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dorian Strong | CB | OUT | Neck |
| Mike Danna | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| T.J. Sanders | DT | OUT | Knee |
| Zane Durant | DT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Ar'maj Reed-Adams | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jude Bowry | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jalon Kilgore | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jedrick Wills Jr. | OT | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
GB · 11
| Josh Jacobs | RB | OUT | Personal |
| J. Michael Sturdivant | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Savion Williams | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Josh Whyle | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Neck |
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Anthony Campbell | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jordon Riley | DT | OUT | Achilles |
| Warren Brinson | DT | OUT | Calf |
| Aaron Banks | G | OUT | Knee |
| Ty'Ron Hopper | LB | OUT | Achilles |
| Travis Glover | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brandon Cisse | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
GB
3rd downGB offense · BUF defense
GB 49% #2
BUF #24 42%
BUF
Pass attackBUF offense · GB defense
BUF +0.16 #6
GB #23 +0.08
BUF
Pass yardsGB offense · BUF defense
GB 226 #18
BUF #1 170
BUF
Run block vs frontBUF offense · GB defense
BUF 160 #1
GB #17 118
BUF
Run gameBUF offense · GB defense
BUF +0.11 #1
GB #17 -0.02
BUF
Red zoneBUF offense · GB defense
BUF 72% #3
GB #17 64%
BUF
3rd downBUF offense · GB defense
BUF 46% #3
GB #16 41%
GB
Run block vs frontGB offense · BUF defense
GB 120 #15
BUF #28 136
6 more comparisons, gap under 13
GB
Pass pro vs rushGB offense · BUF defense
GB 1.7 #7
BUF #19 2.1
GB
Run gameGB offense · BUF defense
GB -0.01 #19
BUF #30 +0.09
GB
Red zoneGB offense · BUF defense
GB 63% #16
BUF #24 68%
GB
Pass attackGB offense · BUF defense
GB +0.23 #3
BUF #7 -0.11
GB
Pass yardsBUF offense · GB defense
BUF 234 #13
GB #10 207
BUF
Pass pro vs rushBUF offense · GB defense
BUF 2.4 #19
GB #20 2.1
Micah Parsons LB 12.5 sk #7
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BUF offense against what it runs into
BUF OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC GB DEFENSE
BUF offence: Joseph Brady called these → Pete Carmichael calls it now.
GB defence: Jeff Hafley called these → Jonathan Gannon calls it now.
+0.16 #6
Pass attack
OFF +17
#23 +0.08
+0.11 #1
Run game
OFF +16
#17 -0.02
234 #13
Pass yards
even
#10 207
160 #1
Rush yards
OFF +17
#18 118
2.4 #19
Pass pro vs rush
even
#20 2.1
46% #3
3rd down
OFF +13
#16 41%
72% #3
Red zone
OFF +14
#17 64%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BUFpass pro
even
GBpass rush
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Micah Parsons LB
12.5 sk#7
Devonte Wyatt DT
4.0 sk#100
Javon Hargrave NT
3.5 sk#111
2.4 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.1
BUFrun block
line +16
GBrun D
LTDion Dawkins98%
LGAlec Anderson15%
CConnor McGovern98%
RGO'Cyrus Torrence100%
RTSpencer Brown92%
Karl Brooks LDE
1.0 tfl#492
Javon Hargrave NT
4.0 tfl#235
Devonte Wyatt RDE
6.0 tfl#157
Lukas Van Ness WLB
3.0 tfl#310
Edgerrin Cooper LILB
4.0 tfl#224
160 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#17 118
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 48% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units GB offense against what it runs into
GB OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC BUF DEFENSE
BUF defence: Bobby Babich called these → Jim Leonard calls it now.
+0.23 #3
Pass attack
even
#7 -0.11
-0.01 #19
Run game
OFF +11
#30 +0.09
226 #18
Pass yards
DEF +17
#1 170
120 #15
Rush yards
OFF +13
#28 136
1.7 #7
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#19 2.1
49% #2
3rd down
OFF +22
#24 42%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +8
#24 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
GBpass pro
line +12
BUFpass rush
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
Bradley Chubb OLB
8.5 sk#22
Greg Rousseau LB
7.0 sk#41
Ed Oliver DT
3.0 sk#157
1.7 #7sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#19 2.1
GBrun block
line +13
BUFrun D
LTJordan Morgan72%
LGAaron Banks84%
CSean Rhyan76%
RGJacob Monk14%
RTZach Bako-Bewele—
T.J. Sanders LDE
1.0 tfl#474
Deone Walker NT
8.0 tfl#79
Ed Oliver RDE
7.0 tfl#92
Greg Rousseau WLB
6.0 tfl#144
Dorian Williams LILB
1.0 tfl#538
120 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 136