Tampa Bay Buccaneers
@
Baltimore Ravens
MODEL BAL 61%
Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00
· M&T Bank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 0 – 2 BAL
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TB OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
BAL OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TB OFFENSE
vs
BAL DEFENSE
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
221 #19
Pass yards
OFF +10
#29 259
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +11
#10 107
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +14
#30 1.8
42% #13
3rd down
even
#10 38%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +12
#7 55%
BAL OFFENSE
vs
TB DEFENSE
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#27 255
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#5 99
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
41% #15
3rd down
even
#13 40%
60% #22
Red zone
OFF +10
#32 74%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TB PASS RUSH
vs
BAL PASS PRO
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sacks '25
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sacks '25
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.6 #21
sacks allowed /g
#30 2.2
BAL PASS RUSH
vs
TB PASS PRO
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sacks '25
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sacks '25
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sacks '25
2.2 #16
sacks allowed /g
#18 1.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TB
Baker Mayfield QB
vs #21 PASS D
217.2 pass y/g 3/10
Bucky Irving RB
vs #7 RUN D
58.8 rush y/g 7/10
Emeka Egbuka WR1
vs #21 PASS D
55.2 rec y/g 2/10
Chris Godwin Jr. WR2
vs #21 PASS D
40.0 rec y/g 3/9
Jalen McMillan WR3
vs #21 PASS D
44.5 rec y/g 1/4
Cade Otton TE
vs #21 PASS D
38.1 rec y/g 4/10
BAL
Lamar Jackson QB
vs #20 PASS D
196.1 pass y/g 4/10
Derrick Henry RB
vs #3 RUN D
93.8 rush y/g 7/10
Zay Flowers WR1
vs #20 PASS D
71.2 rec y/g 5/10
Rashod Bateman WR2
vs #20 PASS D
17.2 rec y/g 3/10
Devontez Walker WR3
vs #20 PASS D
17.0 rec y/g 4/8
Mark Andrews TE
vs #20 PASS D
24.8 rec y/g 3/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.