no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 66%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TB 22 – BAL 27 · BAL -5.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
BAL -5.75
BAL −5.4
6/10
—at the line
| book | BAL | TB |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
15 designations · as of 11:45 PM
TB · 7
| Sean Tucker | RB | OUT | Hamstring |
| David Sills V | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jalen McMillan | WR | OUT | Knee |
|
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays | with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Josh Hayes | CB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Mohamed Kamara | LB | OUT | Knee · IR |
| Justin Skule | OT | OUT | Oblique |
| Jacob Parrish | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Back |
BAL · 8
| Adam Randall | RB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Devontez Walker | WR | OUT | Groin |
| Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | DOUBTFUL | Wrist |
| Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g) | |||
| Zay Flowers | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Bilhal Kone | CB | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
| Nnamdi Madubuike | DT | OUT | Neck |
| Teddye Buchanan | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| T.J. Tampa | CB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL
Run block vs frontTB offense · BAL defense
TB 112 #22
BAL #8 106
BAL
Red zoneTB offense · BAL defense
TB 62% #19
BAL #7 55%
TB
Pass yardsTB offense · BAL defense
TB 221 #19
BAL #29 259
BAL
Red zoneBAL offense · TB defense
BAL 60% #22
TB #32 74%
TB
Pass pro vs rushTB offense · BAL defense
TB 2.5 #19
BAL #28 1.8
BAL
Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · TB defense
BAL 2.5 #20
TB #26 1.9
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
BAL
Run gameTB offense · BAL defense
TB +0.01 #12
BAL #7 -0.05
TB
Pass attackBAL offense · TB defense
BAL -0.04 #24
TB #20 +0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
BAL
Run block vs frontBAL offense · TB defense
BAL 162 #1
TB #5 100
BAL
3rd downTB offense · BAL defense
TB 42% #13
BAL #10 38%
TB
3rd downBAL offense · TB defense
BAL 41% #15
TB #13 40%
BAL
Pass attackTB offense · BAL defense
TB -0.03 #22
BAL #21 +0.07
TB
Pass yardsBAL offense · TB defense
BAL 193 #28
TB #27 255
BAL
Run gameBAL offense · TB defense
BAL +0.10 #2
TB #3 -0.07
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units TB offense against what it runs into
TB OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC BAL DEFENSE
TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.
-0.03 #22
Pass attack
even
#21 +0.07
+0.01 #12
Run game
even
#7 -0.05
221 #19
Pass yards
OFF +10
#29 259
115 #21
Rush yards
DEF +11
#10 107
2.2 #17
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +11
#28 1.8
42% #13
3rd down
even
#10 38%
62% #19
Red zone
DEF +12
#7 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
TBpass pro
line +9
BALpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Calais Campbell DE
6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT
5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB
4.5 sk#81
2.5 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
TBrun block
front +14
BALrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE
2.0 tfl#439
Travis Jones NT
9.0 tfl#64
Calais Campbell RDE
9.0 tfl#63
Tavius Robinson WLB
3.0 tfl#308
Roquan Smith LILB
5.0 tfl#203
112 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 51% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units BAL offense against what it runs into
BAL OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
TB DEFENSE
BAL offence: Todd Monken called these → Declan Doyle calls it now.
-0.04 #24
Pass attack
even
#20 +0.07
+0.10 #2
Run game
even
#3 -0.07
193 #28
Pass yards
even
#27 255
157 #2
Rush yards
even
#5 99
2.6 #21
Pass pro vs rush
even
#18 2.2
41% #15
3rd down
even
#13 40%
60% #22
Red zone
OFF +10
#32 74%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
BALpass pro
even
TBpass rush
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Al-Quadin Muhammad LB
11.0 sk#12
Yaya Diaby LB
7.0 sk#38
Vita Vea DT
4.5 sk#86
2.5 #20sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#26 1.9
BALrun block
even
TBrun D
LTRonnie Stanley89%
LGJohn Simpson97% NYJ
CJovaughn Gwyn1% ATL
RGOlaivavega Ioane—
RTRoger Rosengarten100%
Calijah Kancey LDE
1.0 tfl#613
Vita Vea NT
7.0 tfl#120
A'Shawn Robinson RDE
3.0 tfl#342
Rueben Bain Jr. WLB
—
Alex Anzalone LILB
4.0 tfl#260
162 #1rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#5 100