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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00 · M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: TB 0 – 2 BAL
no sides on this game yet · the record
TB Sean Tucker RB out · David Sills V WR out · Jalen McMillan WR out → Ted Hurst III    BAL Adam Randall RB out · Devontez Walker WR out · Ja'Kobi Lane WR d → Chris Moore · Zay Flowers WR q → Rashod Bateman
BAL win probability
ours 66% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected TB 22 – BAL 27 · BAL -5.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Ravensspread · margin, last 10
BAL -5.75
BAL −5.4
6/10
at the line
bookBALTB
DK
CZR
Ravenstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

15 designations · as of 11:45 PM
TB · 7
Sean TuckerRBOUTHamstring
David Sills VWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jalen McMillanWROUTKnee
Next up: Ted Hurst III WR4
McMillan: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 44 yds · 52% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
TB without him, 13 games last season: 55% pass · 25.1 pts · 61 plays  |  with him (4): 53% pass · 21.8 pts · 60 plays
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Josh HayesCBOUTKnee · IR
Mohamed KamaraLBOUTKnee · IR
Justin SkuleOTOUTOblique
Jacob ParrishCBQUESTIONABLEBack
BAL · 8
Adam RandallRBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Devontez WalkerWROUTGroin
Ja'Kobi LaneWRDOUBTFULWrist
Next up: Chris Moore WR5 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 21 yds · 49% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Zay FlowersWRQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: Rashod Bateman WR2 · 3 tgt · 1 rec · 17 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (13 g)
Flowers: 7 tgt · 5 rec · 71 yds · 86% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Bilhal KoneCBOUTLower Body · IR
Nnamdi MadubuikeDTOUTNeck
Teddye BuchananLBOUTKnee - ACL
T.J. TampaCBQUESTIONABLEKnee

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
BAL Run block vs frontTB offense · BAL defense FRONT +14 TB 112 #22 BAL #8 106
BAL Red zoneTB offense · BAL defense DEF +12 TB 62% #19 BAL #7 55%
TB Pass yardsTB offense · BAL defense OFF +10 TB 221 #19 BAL #29 259
BAL Red zoneBAL offense · TB defense OFF +10 BAL 60% #22 TB #32 74%
TB Pass pro vs rushTB offense · BAL defense LINE +9 TB 2.5 #19 BAL #28 1.8
BAL Pass pro vs rushBAL offense · TB defense LINE +6 BAL 2.5 #20 TB #26 1.9 Al-Quadin Muhammad LB 11.0 sk #12
BAL Run gameTB offense · BAL defense DEF +5 TB +0.01 #12 BAL #7 -0.05
TB Pass attackBAL offense · TB defense DEF +4 BAL -0.04 #24 TB #20 +0.07
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
BAL Run block vs frontBAL offense · TB defense LINE +4 BAL 162 #1 TB #5 100
BAL 3rd downTB offense · BAL defense DEF +3 TB 42% #13 BAL #10 38%
TB 3rd downBAL offense · TB defense DEF +2 BAL 41% #15 TB #13 40%
BAL Pass attackTB offense · BAL defense DEF +1 TB -0.03 #22 BAL #21 +0.07
TB Pass yardsBAL offense · TB defense DEF +1 BAL 193 #28 TB #27 255
BAL Run gameBAL offense · TB defense OFF +1 BAL +0.10 #2 TB #3 -0.07

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

BAL DEFENSE TB OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units TB offense against what it runs into

TB OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC BAL DEFENSE

TB offence: Josh Grizzard called these → Zac Robinson calls it now.
BAL defence: Zach Orr called these → Anthony Weaver calls it now.

-0.03 #22 Pass attack even #21 +0.07
+0.01 #12 Run game even #7 -0.05
221 #19 Pass yards OFF +10 #29 259
115 #21 Rush yards DEF +11 #10 107
2.2 #17 Pass pro vs rush OFF +11 #28 1.8
42% #13 3rd down even #10 38%
62% #19 Red zone DEF +12 #7 55%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

TBpass pro line +9 BALpass rush
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Calais Campbell DE 6.5 sk#46
Travis Jones DT 5.0 sk#68
Tavius Robinson LB 4.5 sk#81
2.5 #19sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#28 1.8
TBrun block front +14 BALrun D
LTTristan Wirfs99%
LGBen Bredeson87%
CGraham Barton100%
RGCody Mauch100%
RTLuke Goedeke91%
Nnamdi Madubuike LDE 2.0 tfl#439
Travis Jones NT 9.0 tfl#64
Calais Campbell RDE 9.0 tfl#63
Tavius Robinson WLB 3.0 tfl#308
Roquan Smith LILB 5.0 tfl#203
112 #22rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#8 106