no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Caleb Lohner TE out NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 34%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 24 – NYJ 19 · DEN -5.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NYJ +5
NYJ +5.5
3/10
—at the line
| book | NYJ | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
39.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DEN · 7
| Caleb Lohner | TE | OUT | Lower Body · IR |
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Deiter | C | OUT | Quadriceps · IR |
| Matt Henningsen | DE | OUT | Achilles · IR |
| Nick Gargiulo | G | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jonathon Cooper | LB | OUT | Personal |
| Levelle Bailey | LB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Frank Crum | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
NYJ · 12
| Kene Nwangwu | RB | OUT | Back |
| Tim Patrick | WR | OUT | Groin · IR |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
| Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g) | |||
9 more · line, defense, specialists
| D'Angelo Ponds | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Tre Brown | CB | OUT | Finger · IR |
| Joseph Ossai | DE | OUT | Foot |
| Kingsley Jonathan | DE | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Tyler Baron | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Trevin Wallace | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Blake Grupe | PK | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| VJ Payne | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Minkah Fitzpatrick | S | DOUBTFUL | Groin |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN
Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · NYJ defense
DEN 1.4 #3
NYJ #31 1.5
DEN
Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · DEN defense
NYJ 3.5 #29
DEN #1 4.0
Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN
Red zoneNYJ offense · DEN defense
NYJ 53% #29
DEN #1 48%
DEN
3rd downNYJ offense · DEN defense
NYJ 35% #27
DEN #2 34%
DEN
Pass attackDEN offense · NYJ defense
DEN +0.08 #9
NYJ #32 +0.25
DEN
Pass attackNYJ offense · DEN defense
NYJ -0.18 #28
DEN #6 -0.12
DEN
Pass yardsNYJ offense · DEN defense
NYJ 164 #32
DEN #11 212
DEN
Run gameNYJ offense · DEN defense
NYJ -0.06 #29
DEN #10 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 19
DEN
Red zoneDEN offense · NYJ defense
DEN 63% #15
NYJ #29 70%
DEN
Run block vs frontDEN offense · NYJ defense
DEN 119 #16
NYJ #29 139
DEN
Run gameDEN offense · NYJ defense
DEN +0.00 #16
NYJ #26 +0.03
DEN
Run block vs frontNYJ offense · DEN defense
NYJ 123 #10
DEN #2 91
DEN
3rd downDEN offense · NYJ defense
DEN 43% #9
NYJ #12 39%
NYJ
Pass yardsDEN offense · NYJ defense
DEN 231 #17
NYJ #16 226
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units DEN offense against what it runs into
DEN OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE
DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +23
#32 +0.25
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +10
#26 +0.03
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#16 226
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +13
#29 139
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +30
#31 1.5
43% #9
3rd down
even
#12 39%
63% #15
Red zone
OFF +14
#29 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
DENpass pro
line +28
NYJpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sk#108
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
DENrun block
line +13
NYJrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE
6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT
4.0 tfl#237
Harrison Phillips RDT
5.0 tfl#179
Will McDonald IV RDE
10.0 tfl#46
Demario Davis WLB
6.0 tfl#148
119 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYJ offense against what it runs into
NYJ OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
DEN DEFENSE
NYJ offence: Tanner Engstrand called these → Frank Reich calls it now.
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +22
#6 -0.12
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +19
#10 -0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +21
#11 212
123 #10
Rush yards
DEF +8
#2 91
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +28
#1 4.0
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +25
#2 34%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +28
#1 48%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYJpass pro
rush +28
DENpass rush
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Nik Bonitto LB
14.0 sk#5
Jonathon Cooper LB
8.0 sk#27
Zach Allen DE
7.0 sk#39
3.5 #29sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#1 4.0
NYJrun block
front +8
DENrun D
LTOlu Fashanu99%
LGDylan Parham97% LV
CJosh Myers100%
RGJoe Tippmann100%
RTArmand Membou100%
Zach Allen LDE
4.0 tfl#262
D.J. Jones NT
4.0 tfl#272
Eyioma Uwazurike RDE
5.0 tfl#183
Jonah Elliss WLB
5.0 tfl#174
Alex Singleton LILB
3.0 tfl#353
123 #10rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#2 91