Denver Broncos
@
New York Jets
MODEL NYJ 36%
Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00
· MetLife Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 3 – 2 NYJ
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
DEN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
DEN OFFENSE
vs
NYJ DEFENSE
+0.08 #9
Pass attack
OFF +23
#32 +0.25
+0.00 #16
Run game
OFF +10
#26 +0.03
231 #17
Pass yards
even
#16 226
119 #16
Rush yards
OFF +13
#29 139
1.4 #1
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +30
#31 1.5
43% #9
3rd down
even
#12 39%
63% #16
Red zone
OFF +13
#29 70%
NYJ OFFENSE
vs
DEN DEFENSE
-0.18 #28
Pass attack
DEF +22
#6 -0.12
-0.06 #29
Run game
DEF +19
#10 -0.04
164 #32
Pass yards
DEF +21
#11 212
123 #10
Rush yards
DEF +8
#2 91
3.5 #29
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +28
#1 4.0
35% #27
3rd down
DEF +25
#2 34%
53% #29
Red zone
DEF +28
#1 48%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
DEN PASS RUSH
vs
NYJ PASS PRO
Nik Bonitto LB
15.0 sacks '25
Jonathon Cooper LB
9.0 sacks '25
Zach Allen DE
8.5 sacks '25
3.5 #29
sacks allowed /g
#31 4.0
NYJ PASS RUSH
vs
DEN PASS PRO
Will McDonald IV DE
8.0 sacks '25
Joseph Ossai DE
5.0 sacks '25
Jowon Briggs DE
4.0 sacks '25
1.4 #1
sacks allowed /g
#1 1.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
DEN
Bo Nix QB
vs #32 PASS D
233.9 pass y/g 5/10
J.K. Dobbins RB
vs #26 RUN D
77.2 rush y/g 5/10
Courtland Sutton WR1
vs #32 PASS D
57.2 rec y/g 5/10
Jaylen Waddle WR2
2025: MIA
vs #32 PASS D
56.9 rec y/g 4/10
Troy Franklin WR3
vs #32 PASS D
41.7 rec y/g 4/10
Evan Engram TE
vs #32 PASS D
27.1 rec y/g 4/10
NYJ
Geno Smith QB
2025: LV
vs #6 PASS D
201.7 pass y/g 3/10
Breece Hall RB
vs #10 RUN D
66.6 rush y/g 4/10
Garrett Wilson WR1
vs #6 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 4/7
Adonai Mitchell WR2
vs #6 PASS D
28.3 rec y/g 4/10
Omar Cooper Jr. WR3
vs #6 PASS D
— rec y/g
Kenyon Sadiq TE
vs #6 PASS D
— rec y/g
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.