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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00 · MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: DEN 3 – 2 NYJ
no sides on this game yet · the record
DEN Caleb Lohner TE out    NYJ Kene Nwangwu RB out · Tim Patrick WR out · Omar Cooper Jr. WR q → Isaiah Williams
NYJ win probability
ours 34% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected DEN 24 – NYJ 19 · DEN -5.5 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jetsspread · margin, last 10
NYJ +5
NYJ +5.5
3/10
at the line
bookNYJDEN
DK
CZR
Jetstotal · points in the game, last 10
39.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

19 designations · as of 8:00 PM
DEN · 7
Caleb LohnerTEOUTLower Body · IR
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael DeiterCOUTQuadriceps · IR
Matt HenningsenDEOUTAchilles · IR
Nick GargiuloGOUTKnee - ACL
Jonathon CooperLBOUTPersonal
Levelle BaileyLBOUTLeg · IR
Frank CrumOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
NYJ · 12
Kene NwangwuRBOUTBack
Tim PatrickWROUTGroin · IR
Omar Cooper Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Isaiah Williams WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 13 yds · 36% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
9 more · line, defense, specialists
D'Angelo PondsCBOUTCalf
Tre BrownCBOUTFinger · IR
Joseph OssaiDEOUTFoot
Kingsley JonathanDEOUTThigh · IR
Tyler BaronDEOUTKnee
Trevin WallaceLBOUTCoach's Decision
Blake GrupePKOUTCoach's Decision
VJ PayneSOUTUndisclosed · IR
Minkah FitzpatrickSDOUBTFULGroin

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
DEN Pass pro vs rushDEN offense · NYJ defense LINE +28 DEN 1.4 #3 NYJ #31 1.5
DEN Pass pro vs rushNYJ offense · DEN defense RUSH +28 NYJ 3.5 #29 DEN #1 4.0 Nik Bonitto LB 14.0 sk #5
DEN Red zoneNYJ offense · DEN defense DEF +28 NYJ 53% #29 DEN #1 48%
DEN 3rd downNYJ offense · DEN defense DEF +25 NYJ 35% #27 DEN #2 34%
DEN Pass attackDEN offense · NYJ defense OFF +23 DEN +0.08 #9 NYJ #32 +0.25
DEN Pass attackNYJ offense · DEN defense DEF +22 NYJ -0.18 #28 DEN #6 -0.12
DEN Pass yardsNYJ offense · DEN defense DEF +21 NYJ 164 #32 DEN #11 212
DEN Run gameNYJ offense · DEN defense DEF +19 NYJ -0.06 #29 DEN #10 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 19
DEN Red zoneDEN offense · NYJ defense OFF +14 DEN 63% #15 NYJ #29 70%
DEN Run block vs frontDEN offense · NYJ defense LINE +13 DEN 119 #16 NYJ #29 139
DEN Run gameDEN offense · NYJ defense OFF +10 DEN +0.00 #16 NYJ #26 +0.03
DEN Run block vs frontNYJ offense · DEN defense FRONT +8 NYJ 123 #10 DEN #2 91
DEN 3rd downDEN offense · NYJ defense OFF +3 DEN 43% #9 NYJ #12 39%
NYJ Pass yardsDEN offense · NYJ defense DEF +1 DEN 231 #17 NYJ #16 226

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

NYJ DEFENSE DEN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units DEN offense against what it runs into

DEN OFFENSE OLD OC 2025 OLD DC NYJ DEFENSE

DEN offence: Joe Lombardi called these → Davis Webb calls it now.
NYJ defence: Steve Wilks called these → Brian Duker calls it now.

+0.08 #9 Pass attack OFF +23 #32 +0.25
+0.00 #16 Run game OFF +10 #26 +0.03
231 #17 Pass yards even #16 226
119 #16 Rush yards OFF +13 #29 139
1.4 #1 Pass pro vs rush OFF +30 #31 1.5
43% #9 3rd down even #12 39%
63% #15 Red zone OFF +14 #29 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

DENpass pro line +28 NYJpass rush
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Will McDonald IV DE 8.0 sk#25
Joseph Ossai DE 5.0 sk#67
Jowon Briggs DE 4.0 sk#108
1.4 #3sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.5
DENrun block line +13 NYJrun D
LTGarett Bolles99%
LGBen Powers89%
CLuke Wattenberg100%
RGQuinn Meinerz97%
RTMike McGlinchey99%
Kingsley Enagbare LDE 6.0 tfl#124
T'Vondre Sweat LDT 4.0 tfl#237
Harrison Phillips RDT 5.0 tfl#179
Will McDonald IV RDE 10.0 tfl#46
Demario Davis WLB 6.0 tfl#148
119 #16rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#29 139