Pittsburgh Steelers
@
Jacksonville Jaguars
MODEL JAC 63%
Week 14 · 2026-12-14 · 20:15
· EverBank Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 0 – 1 JAC
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
PIT OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Ball-control
JAC OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
PIT OFFENSE
vs
JAC DEFENSE
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +13
#3 -0.14
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#19 231
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +25
#1 86
1.8 #11
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +16
#27 1.9
41% #14
3rd down
even
#17 41%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +14
#25 68%
JAC OFFENSE
vs
PIT DEFENSE
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
-0.01 #18
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +19
#30 261
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#13 113
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +14
#6 2.8
40% #18
3rd down
even
#25 43%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#9 58%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
PIT PASS RUSH
vs
JAC PASS PRO
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sacks '25
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sacks '25
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sacks '25
2.4 #20
sacks allowed /g
#27 2.8
JAC PASS RUSH
vs
PIT PASS PRO
Josh Hines-Allen DE
9.0 sacks '25
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sacks '25
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sacks '25
1.8 #11
sacks allowed /g
#6 1.9
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
PIT
Aaron Rodgers QB
vs #3 PASS D
204.0 pass y/g 4/10
Jaylen Warren RB
vs #13 RUN D
58.9 rush y/g 6/10
DK Metcalf WR1
vs #3 PASS D
55.8 rec y/g 1/10
Michael Pittman Jr. WR2
2025: IND
vs #3 PASS D
46.1 rec y/g 3/10
Roman Wilson WR3
vs #3 PASS D
18.4 rec y/g 2/9
Pat Freiermuth TE
vs #3 PASS D
31.5 rec y/g 4/10
JAC
Trevor Lawrence QB
vs #17 PASS D
234.1 pass y/g 6/10
Bhayshul Tuten RB
vs #20 RUN D
22.4 rush y/g 4/10
Brian Thomas Jr. WR1
vs #17 PASS D
48.5 rec y/g 5/10
Jakobi Meyers WR2
vs #17 PASS D
49.8 rec y/g 4/10
Parker Washington WR3
vs #17 PASS D
56.1 rec y/g 6/10
Brenton Strange TE
vs #17 PASS D
42.2 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.