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Week 14 · 2026-12-14 · 20:15 · EverBank Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: PIT 0 – 1 JAX
no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
JAX win probability
ours 63% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 21 – JAX 25 · JAX -4.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Jaguarsspread · margin, last 10
JAX -3.25
JAC −4.4
8/9
at the line
bookJACPIT
DK
CZR
Jaguarstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Donte KentCBOUTUndisclosed
Joey Porter Jr.CBOUTBack
Jack DriscollOTOUTUndisclosed · IR
DeShon ElliottSOUTUndisclosed · IR
JAX · 4
Brian Thomas Jr.WRQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays  |  with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Sam MustipherCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Patrick MekariGOUTBack · IR
B.J. Green IIDEQUESTIONABLEElbow

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX Run block vs frontPIT offense · JAX defense FRONT +25 PIT 98 #26 JAX #1 86
JAX Pass yardsJAX offense · PIT defense OFF +19 JAX 237 #11 PIT #30 261
PIT Red zonePIT offense · JAX defense OFF +14 PIT 66% #11 JAX #25 68%
JAX Pass attackPIT offense · JAX defense DEF +13 PIT +0.03 #16 JAX #3 -0.14
PIT Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · PIT defense RUSH +12 JAX 2.2 #16 PIT #4 3.1
JAX 3rd downJAX offense · PIT defense OFF +7 JAX 40% #18 PIT #25 43%
JAX Pass attackJAX offense · PIT defense OFF +6 JAX +0.06 #11 PIT #17 +0.03
PIT Run block vs frontJAX offense · PIT defense FRONT +4 JAX 116 #17 PIT #13 114
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
PIT 3rd downPIT offense · JAX defense OFF +3 PIT 41% #14 JAX #17 41%
PIT Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · JAX defense LINE +3 PIT 1.9 #8 JAX #11 2.6
JAX Pass yardsPIT offense · JAX defense DEF +3 PIT 214 #22 JAX #19 231
PIT Red zoneJAX offense · PIT defense DEF +3 JAX 65% #12 PIT #9 58%
PIT Run gamePIT offense · JAX defense OFF +3 PIT +0.02 #10 JAX #13 -0.04
JAX Run gameJAX offense · PIT defense OFF +3 JAX -0.00 #17 PIT #20 +0.00

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

JAX DEFENSE PIT OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 41% run Ball-control
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units PIT offense against what it runs into

PIT OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 JAX DEFENSE

PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.

+0.03 #16 Pass attack DEF +13 #3 -0.14
+0.02 #10 Run game even #13 -0.04
214 #22 Pass yards even #19 231
103 #26 Rush yards DEF +25 #1 86
1.8 #9 Pass pro vs rush OFF +18 #27 1.9
41% #14 3rd down even #17 41%
66% #11 Red zone OFF +14 #25 68%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

PITpass pro even JAXpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Josh Hines-Allen DE 8.0 sk#28
Arik Armstead DE 5.5 sk#60
Travon Walker DE 3.5 sk#117
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
PITrun block front +25 JAXrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Travon Walker LDE 8.0 tfl#84
Arik Armstead LDT 7.0 tfl#105
DaVon Hamilton RDT 3.0 tfl#295
Josh Hines-Allen RDE 12.0 tfl#26
Foyesade Oluokun WLB 5.0 tfl#194
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86