no sides on this game yet · the record
JAX Brian Thomas Jr. WR q → Parker Washington
JAX win probability
ours 63%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected PIT 21 – JAX 25 · JAX -4.4 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
JAX -3.25
JAC −4.4
8/9
—at the line
| book | JAC | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
8 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
PIT · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Donte Kent | CB | OUT | Undisclosed |
| Joey Porter Jr. | CB | OUT | Back |
| Jack Driscoll | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| DeShon Elliott | S | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
JAX · 4
| Brian Thomas Jr. | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
|
Next up: Parker Washington WR2 · 6 tgt · 4 rec · 53 yds · 61% of snaps per game, 2025 (16 g)
Jr.: 6 tgt · 3 rec · 50 yds · 78% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
JAX without him, 3 games last season: 42% pass · 31.7 pts · 59 plays | with him (14): 56% pass · 24.2 pts · 62 plays
| |||
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Sam Mustipher | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Patrick Mekari | G | OUT | Back · IR |
| B.J. Green II | DE | QUESTIONABLE | Elbow |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
JAX
Run block vs frontPIT offense · JAX defense
PIT 98 #26
JAX #1 86
JAX
Pass yardsJAX offense · PIT defense
JAX 237 #11
PIT #30 261
PIT
Red zonePIT offense · JAX defense
PIT 66% #11
JAX #25 68%
JAX
Pass attackPIT offense · JAX defense
PIT +0.03 #16
JAX #3 -0.14
PIT
Pass pro vs rushJAX offense · PIT defense
JAX 2.2 #16
PIT #4 3.1
JAX
3rd downJAX offense · PIT defense
JAX 40% #18
PIT #25 43%
JAX
Pass attackJAX offense · PIT defense
JAX +0.06 #11
PIT #17 +0.03
PIT
Run block vs frontJAX offense · PIT defense
JAX 116 #17
PIT #13 114
6 more comparisons, gap under 4
PIT
3rd downPIT offense · JAX defense
PIT 41% #14
JAX #17 41%
PIT
Pass pro vs rushPIT offense · JAX defense
PIT 1.9 #8
JAX #11 2.6
JAX
Pass yardsPIT offense · JAX defense
PIT 214 #22
JAX #19 231
PIT
Red zoneJAX offense · PIT defense
JAX 65% #12
PIT #9 58%
PIT
Run gamePIT offense · JAX defense
PIT +0.02 #10
JAX #13 -0.04
JAX
Run gameJAX offense · PIT defense
JAX -0.00 #17
PIT #20 +0.00
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 41% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units PIT offense against what it runs into
PIT OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
JAX DEFENSE
PIT offence: Arthur Smith called these → Brian Angelichio calls it now.
+0.03 #16
Pass attack
DEF +13
#3 -0.14
+0.02 #10
Run game
even
#13 -0.04
214 #22
Pass yards
even
#19 231
103 #26
Rush yards
DEF +25
#1 86
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +18
#27 1.9
41% #14
3rd down
even
#17 41%
66% #11
Red zone
OFF +14
#25 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
PITpass pro
even
JAXpass rush
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Josh Hines-Allen DE
8.0 sk#28
Arik Armstead DE
5.5 sk#60
Travon Walker DE
3.5 sk#117
1.9 #8sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#11 2.6
PITrun block
front +25
JAXrun D
LTTroy Fautanu100%
LGMason McCormick100%
CZach Frazier94%
RGSpencer Anderson35%
RTDylan Cook87%
Travon Walker LDE
8.0 tfl#84
Arik Armstead LDT
7.0 tfl#105
DaVon Hamilton RDT
3.0 tfl#295
Josh Hines-Allen RDE
12.0 tfl#26
Foyesade Oluokun WLB
5.0 tfl#194
98 #26rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#1 86
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 44% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units JAX offense against what it runs into
JAX OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC PIT DEFENSE
PIT defence: Teryl Austin called these → Patrick Graham calls it now.
+0.06 #11
Pass attack
even
#17 +0.03
-0.00 #17
Run game
even
#20 +0.00
237 #11
Pass yards
OFF +19
#30 261
115 #20
Rush yards
even
#13 113
2.4 #20
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#5 2.8
40% #18
3rd down
even
#25 43%
65% #12
Red zone
even
#9 58%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
JAXpass pro
rush +12
PITpass rush
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Alex Highsmith LB
9.5 sk#18
Nick Herbig LB
7.5 sk#34
T.J. Watt OLB
7.0 sk#43
2.2 #16sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 3.1
JAXrun block
even
PITrun D
LTAnton Harrison96%
LGEmmanuel Pregnon—
CRobert Hainsey95%
RGEzra Cleveland97%
RTCole Van Lanen60%
Derrick Harmon LDE
1.0 tfl#575
Keeanu Benton NT
6.0 tfl#148
Cameron Heyward RDE
9.0 tfl#62
T.J. Watt WLB
10.0 tfl#47
Payton Wilson LILB
6.0 tfl#137
116 #17rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#13 114