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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00 · Northwest Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 0 – 1 WAS
no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out    WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 43% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 23 – WAS 21 · HOU -2.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Commandersspread · margin, last 10
WAS +1.5
WAS +2.2
3/10
at the line
bookWASHOU
DK
CZR
Commanderstotal · points in the game, last 10
44.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 13
Jayden HigginsWROUTKnee - ACL · IR
Tank DellWROUTKnee - ACL + MCL · IR
Brevin JordanTEOUTCoach's Decision
10 more · line, defense, specialists
Collin WrightCBOUTCoach's Decision
Jaden CrumedyDTOUTCoach's Decision
Kayden McDonaldDTOUTAnkle · IR
Febechi NwaiwuGOUTCoach's Decision
Sam HagenGOUTUndisclosed · IR
Aiden FisherLBOUTCoach's Decision
Braden SmithOTOUTFoot · IR
Nate ThomasOTOUTCoach's Decision
Henry To'oTo'oLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Jake HummelLBQUESTIONABLEAbdomen
WAS · 10
Athan KaliakmanisQBOUTCoach's Decision
Luke McCaffreyWROUTCoach's Decision
Treylon BurksWROUTCoach's Decision
Chig OkonkwoTEQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
6 more · line, defense, specialists
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTOUTPectoral · IR
Ricky BarberDTOUTCoach's Decision
Tanoa TogiaiGOUTCoach's Decision
Frankie LuvuLBQUESTIONABLEGroin
Jordan MageeLBQUESTIONABLEHamstring
Tyler OwensSQUESTIONABLEAnkle

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU Pass attackWAS offense · HOU defense DEF +17 WAS -0.01 #18 HOU #1 -0.19
HOU Pass yardsWAS offense · HOU defense DEF +17 WAS 196 #24 HOU #7 205
HOU 3rd downWAS offense · HOU defense DEF +15 WAS 38% #22 HOU #7 37%
HOU Pass attackHOU offense · WAS defense OFF +15 HOU +0.04 #15 WAS #30 +0.20
HOU Pass yardsHOU offense · WAS defense OFF +14 HOU 233 #14 WAS #28 257
WAS Red zoneWAS offense · HOU defense OFF +12 WAS 70% #4 HOU #16 63%
HOU Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · HOU defense RUSH +7 WAS 2.2 #15 HOU #8 2.8 Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
HOU Run block vs frontHOU offense · WAS defense LINE +7 HOU 109 #23 WAS #30 142
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
HOU Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · WAS defense LINE +3 HOU 1.8 #10 WAS #13 2.5
WAS Red zoneHOU offense · WAS defense DEF +3 HOU 51% #31 WAS #28 70%
WAS Run gameHOU offense · WAS defense DEF +2 HOU -0.08 #30 WAS #28 +0.07
WAS 3rd downHOU offense · WAS defense DEF +1 HOU 38% #24 WAS #23 42%
HOU Run block vs frontWAS offense · HOU defense FRONT +1 WAS 135 #4 HOU #3 94 Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU Run gameWAS offense · HOU defense DEF +1 WAS +0.02 #9 HOU #8 -0.05

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since

WAS DEFENSE HOU OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 43% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units HOU offense against what it runs into

HOU OFFENSE 2025 OLD DC WAS DEFENSE

WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.

+0.04 #15 Pass attack OFF +15 #30 +0.20
-0.08 #30 Run game even #28 +0.07
233 #14 Pass yards OFF +14 #28 257
109 #22 Rush yards OFF +8 #30 142
1.8 #10 Pass pro vs rush even #14 2.5
38% #24 3rd down even #23 42%
51% #31 Red zone even #28 70%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

HOUpass pro even WASpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB 7.5 sk#34
Odafe Oweh LB 7.5 sk#31
Dorance Armstrong DE 5.5 sk#62
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.5
HOUrun block even WASrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Tim Settle LDE 3.0 tfl#293
Daron Payne NT 7.0 tfl#115
Javon Kinlaw RDE 5.0 tfl#162
Odafe Oweh WLB 9.0 tfl#56
Frankie Luvu LILB 5.0 tfl#186
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142