Houston Texans
@
Washington Commanders
MODEL WAS 41%
Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00
· Northwest Stadium (outdoors)
· grass
Last 5 yrs H2H: HOU 0 – 1 WAS
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
HOU OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
WAS OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
HOU OFFENSE
vs
WAS DEFENSE
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +15
#30 +0.20
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +14
#28 257
109 #22
Rush yards
OFF +8
#30 142
1.8 #9
Pass pro vs rush
even
#13 2.5
38% #24
3rd down
even
#23 42%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#28 70%
WAS OFFENSE
vs
HOU DEFENSE
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +17
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +17
#7 205
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#4 94
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#7 2.8
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +15
#7 37%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +12
#16 63%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
HOU PASS RUSH
vs
WAS PASS PRO
Danielle Hunter DE
18.0 sacks '25
Will Anderson Jr. DE
15.5 sacks '25
Sheldon Rankins DT
4.5 sacks '25
2.2 #15
sacks allowed /g
#13 2.8
WAS PASS RUSH
vs
HOU PASS PRO
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
10.5 sacks '25
Odafe Oweh LB
10.5 sacks '25
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sacks '25
1.8 #9
sacks allowed /g
#7 2.5
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
HOU
C.J. Stroud QB
vs #30 PASS D
218.9 pass y/g 5/10
David Montgomery RB
2025: DET
vs #28 RUN D
42.1 rush y/g 2/10
Nico Collins WR1
vs #30 PASS D
71.1 rec y/g 6/10
Jayden Higgins WR2
vs #30 PASS D
32.8 rec y/g 7/10
Jaylin Noel WR3
vs #30 PASS D
15.4 rec y/g 1/10
Dalton Schultz TE
vs #30 PASS D
44.0 rec y/g 5/10
WAS
Jayden Daniels QB
vs #1 PASS D
180.3 pass y/g 4/7
Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB
vs #8 RUN D
47.4 rush y/g 2/10
Terry McLaurin WR1
vs #1 PASS D
58.2 rec y/g 4/10
Antonio Williams WR2
vs #1 PASS D
— rec y/g
Luke McCaffrey WR3
vs #1 PASS D
22.6 rec y/g 4/9
Chig Okonkwo TE
2025: TEN
vs #1 PASS D
32.9 rec y/g 6/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.