no sides on this game yet · the record
HOU Jayden Higgins WR out · Tank Dell WR out · Brevin Jordan TE out WAS Athan Kaliakmanis QB out · Luke McCaffrey WR out · Treylon Burks WR out · Chig Okonkwo TE q → John Bates
WAS win probability
ours 43%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected HOU 23 – WAS 21 · HOU -2.2 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
WAS +1.5
WAS +2.2
3/10
—at the line
| book | WAS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
44.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
23 designations · as of 8:00 PM
HOU · 13
| Jayden Higgins | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Tank Dell | WR | OUT | Knee - ACL + MCL · IR |
| Brevin Jordan | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
10 more · line, defense, specialists
| Collin Wright | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jaden Crumedy | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Kayden McDonald | DT | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Febechi Nwaiwu | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Sam Hagen | G | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Aiden Fisher | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Braden Smith | OT | OUT | Foot · IR |
| Nate Thomas | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Henry To'oTo'o | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Jake Hummel | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Abdomen |
WAS · 10
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Luke McCaffrey | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Treylon Burks | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Chig Okonkwo | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
|
Next up: John Bates TE2 · 2 tgt · 1 rec · 10 yds · 51% of snaps per game, 2025 (10 g)
Okonkwo: 5 tgt · 3 rec · 33 yds · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
6 more · line, defense, specialists
| Jer'Zhan Newton | DT | OUT | Pectoral · IR |
| Ricky Barber | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tanoa Togiai | G | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Frankie Luvu | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Groin |
| Jordan Magee | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
| Tyler Owens | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
HOU
Pass attackWAS offense · HOU defense
WAS -0.01 #18
HOU #1 -0.19
HOU
Pass yardsWAS offense · HOU defense
WAS 196 #24
HOU #7 205
HOU
3rd downWAS offense · HOU defense
WAS 38% #22
HOU #7 37%
HOU
Pass attackHOU offense · WAS defense
HOU +0.04 #15
WAS #30 +0.20
HOU
Pass yardsHOU offense · WAS defense
HOU 233 #14
WAS #28 257
WAS
Red zoneWAS offense · HOU defense
WAS 70% #4
HOU #16 63%
HOU
Pass pro vs rushWAS offense · HOU defense
WAS 2.2 #15
HOU #8 2.8
Danielle Hunter DE 15.0 sk #3Will Anderson Jr. DE 12.0 sk #9
HOU
Run block vs frontHOU offense · WAS defense
HOU 109 #23
WAS #30 142
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
HOU
Pass pro vs rushHOU offense · WAS defense
HOU 1.8 #10
WAS #13 2.5
WAS
Red zoneHOU offense · WAS defense
HOU 51% #31
WAS #28 70%
WAS
Run gameHOU offense · WAS defense
HOU -0.08 #30
WAS #28 +0.07
WAS
3rd downHOU offense · WAS defense
HOU 38% #24
WAS #23 42%
HOU
Run block vs frontWAS offense · HOU defense
WAS 135 #4
HOU #3 94
Will Anderson Jr. LDE 20.0 tfl #4Danielle Hunter RDE 15.0 tfl #8
HOU
Run gameWAS offense · HOU defense
WAS +0.02 #9
HOU #8 -0.05
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new DC since
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units HOU offense against what it runs into
HOU OFFENSE
2025
OLD DC WAS DEFENSE
WAS defence: Joe Whitt Jr. called these → Daronte Jones calls it now.
+0.04 #15
Pass attack
OFF +15
#30 +0.20
-0.08 #30
Run game
even
#28 +0.07
233 #14
Pass yards
OFF +14
#28 257
109 #22
Rush yards
OFF +8
#30 142
1.8 #10
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
38% #24
3rd down
even
#23 42%
51% #31
Red zone
even
#28 70%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
HOUpass pro
even
WASpass rush
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
K'Lavon Chaisson LB
7.5 sk#34
Odafe Oweh LB
7.5 sk#31
Dorance Armstrong DE
5.5 sk#62
1.8 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#13 2.5
HOUrun block
even
WASrun D
LTAireontae Ersery99%
LGKeylan Rutledge—
CEvan Brown100% ARI
RGEd Ingram98%
RTTrent Brown99%
Tim Settle LDE
3.0 tfl#293
Daron Payne NT
7.0 tfl#115
Javon Kinlaw RDE
5.0 tfl#162
Odafe Oweh WLB
9.0 tfl#56
Frankie Luvu LILB
5.0 tfl#186
109 #23rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 142
On the field 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units WAS offense against what it runs into
WAS OFFENSE OLD OC
2025
HOU DEFENSE
WAS offence: Kliff Kingsbury called these → David Blough calls it now.
-0.01 #18
Pass attack
DEF +17
#1 -0.19
+0.02 #9
Run game
even
#8 -0.05
196 #24
Pass yards
DEF +17
#7 205
135 #4
Rush yards
even
#4 94
2.2 #15
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#7 2.8
38% #22
3rd down
DEF +15
#7 37%
70% #4
Red zone
OFF +12
#16 63%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
WASpass pro
even
HOUpass rush
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Danielle Hunter DE
15.0 sk#3
Will Anderson Jr. DE
12.0 sk#9
Jadeveon Clowney OLB
8.5 sk#20
2.2 #15sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#8 2.8
WASrun block
even
HOUrun D
LTBrandon Coleman54%
LGChris Paul89%
CNick Allegretti26%
RGSam Cosmi97%
RTJosh Conerly Jr.100%
Will Anderson Jr. LDE
20.0 tfl#4
Tommy Togiai LDT
6.0 tfl#127
Sheldon Rankins RDT
5.0 tfl#176
Danielle Hunter RDE
15.0 tfl#8
Henry To'oTo'o WLB
9.0 tfl#51
135 #4rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#3 94