no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
CIN win probability
ours 47%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 25 – CIN 24 · KC -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CIN -1.5
CIN +1.0
4/10
—at the line
| book | CIN | KAN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
48.5
held
5/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
KC · 11
| Garrett Nussmeier | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jimmy Holiday | WR | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Jared Wiley | TE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
8 more · line, defense, specialists
| Mansoor Delane | CB | OUT | Shoulder |
| Bryson Eason | DT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Jack Pyburn | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Diego Pounds | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Josh Simmons | OT | OUT | Back |
| Chamarri Conner | S | OUT | Knee |
| Cooper McDonald | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ja'Sir Taylor | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Shemar Stewart | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Brian Parker II | OT | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN
3rd downCIN offense · KC defense
CIN 44% #5
KC #28 44%
KC
Run gameKC offense · CIN defense
KC +0.03 #6
CIN #29 +0.09
KC
Run block vs frontCIN offense · KC defense
CIN 95 #29
KC #7 106
KC
Pass attackKC offense · CIN defense
KC +0.04 #14
CIN #28 +0.16
CIN
Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · KC defense
CIN 1.9 #10
KC #24 1.9
CIN
Pass pro vs rushKC offense · CIN defense
KC 2.8 #23
CIN #12 2.4
KC
Pass yardsKC offense · CIN defense
KC 232 #16
CIN #25 246
KC
Pass attackCIN offense · KC defense
CIN -0.03 #23
KC #15 -0.00
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
CIN
Red zoneCIN offense · KC defense
CIN 76% #1
KC #6 55%
KC
Run block vs frontKC offense · CIN defense
KC 107 #25
CIN #30 139
KC
3rd downKC offense · CIN defense
KC 38% #23
CIN #27 44%
CIN
Run gameCIN offense · KC defense
CIN +0.02 #8
KC #11 -0.04
CIN
Pass yardsCIN offense · KC defense
CIN 250 #7
KC #8 205
KC
Red zoneKC offense · CIN defense
KC 58% #25
CIN #26 69%
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units KC offense against what it runs into
KC OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CIN DEFENSE
KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +14
#28 +0.16
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +23
#29 +0.09
232 #16
Pass yards
OFF +9
#25 246
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#32 147
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#24 2.0
38% #23
3rd down
even
#27 44%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#26 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
KCpass pro
rush +11
CINpass rush
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sk#63
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sk#97
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sk#126
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
KCrun block
even
CINrun D
LTKahlil Benson—
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Boye Mafe LDE
4.0 tfl#220
Dexter Lawrence II LDT
4.0 tfl#233
Jonathan Allen RDT
7.0 tfl#118
Myles Murphy RDE
6.0 tfl#132
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB
4.0 tfl#224
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CIN offense against what it runs into
CIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
KC DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +8
#15 -0.00
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#8 205
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +20
#9 106
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#26 1.9
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +23
#28 44%
76% #1
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CINpass pro
line +14
KCpass rush
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sk#45
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sk#55
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sk#197
1.9 #10sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#24 1.9
CINrun block
front +22
KCrun D
LTOrlando Brown Jr.100%
LGDylan Fairchild99%
CTed Karras100%
RGDalton Risner81%
RTAmarius Mims95%
George Karlaftis LDE
10.0 tfl#40
Chris Jones LDT
12.0 tfl#19
Khyiris Tonga RDT
2.0 tfl#395
Felix Anudike-Uzomah RDE
—
Drue Tranquill WLB
10.0 tfl#50
95 #29rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#7 106