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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 16:25 · Paycor Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: KC 3 – 3 CIN
no sides on this game yet · the record
KC Garrett Nussmeier QB out · Jimmy Holiday WR out · Jared Wiley TE out
CIN win probability
ours 47% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected KC 25 – CIN 24 · KC -1.0 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Bengalsspread · margin, last 10
CIN -1.5
CIN +1.0
4/10
at the line
bookCINKAN
DK
CZR
Bengalstotal · points in the game, last 10
48.5
held
5/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

14 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
KC · 11
Garrett NussmeierQBOUTCoach's Decision
Jimmy HolidayWROUTUndisclosed · IR
Jared WileyTEOUTCoach's Decision
8 more · line, defense, specialists
Mansoor DelaneCBOUTShoulder
Bryson EasonDTOUTCoach's Decision
Omarr Norman-LottDTOUTKnee - ACL
Jack PyburnLBOUTCoach's Decision
Diego PoundsOTOUTCoach's Decision
Josh SimmonsOTOUTBack
Chamarri ConnerSOUTKnee
Cooper McDonaldLBQUESTIONABLEKnee
CIN · 3
3 more · line, defense, specialists
Ja'Sir TaylorCBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Shemar StewartDEOUTKnee
Brian Parker IIOTOUTUndisclosed · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CIN 3rd downCIN offense · KC defense OFF +23 CIN 44% #5 KC #28 44%
KC Run gameKC offense · CIN defense OFF +23 KC +0.03 #6 CIN #29 +0.09
KC Run block vs frontCIN offense · KC defense FRONT +22 CIN 95 #29 KC #7 106
KC Pass attackKC offense · CIN defense OFF +14 KC +0.04 #14 CIN #28 +0.16
CIN Pass pro vs rushCIN offense · KC defense LINE +14 CIN 1.9 #10 KC #24 1.9
CIN Pass pro vs rushKC offense · CIN defense RUSH +11 KC 2.8 #23 CIN #12 2.4
KC Pass yardsKC offense · CIN defense OFF +9 KC 232 #16 CIN #25 246
KC Pass attackCIN offense · KC defense DEF +8 CIN -0.03 #23 KC #15 -0.00
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
CIN Red zoneCIN offense · KC defense OFF +5 CIN 76% #1 KC #6 55%
KC Run block vs frontKC offense · CIN defense LINE +5 KC 107 #25 CIN #30 139
KC 3rd downKC offense · CIN defense OFF +4 KC 38% #23 CIN #27 44%
CIN Run gameCIN offense · KC defense OFF +3 CIN +0.02 #8 KC #11 -0.04
CIN Pass yardsCIN offense · KC defense OFF +1 CIN 250 #7 KC #8 205
KC Red zoneKC offense · CIN defense OFF +1 KC 58% #25 CIN #26 69%

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

CIN DEFENSE KC OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units KC offense against what it runs into

KC OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CIN DEFENSE

KC offence: Matt Nagy called these → Eric Bieniemy calls it now.

+0.04 #14 Pass attack OFF +14 #28 +0.16
+0.03 #6 Run game OFF +23 #29 +0.09
232 #16 Pass yards OFF +9 #25 246
107 #25 Rush yards even #32 147
2.8 #22 Pass pro vs rush even #24 2.0
38% #23 3rd down even #27 44%
58% #25 Red zone even #26 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

KCpass pro rush +11 CINpass rush
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Myles Murphy DE 5.5 sk#63
B.J. Hill DE 4.0 sk#97
Jonathan Allen DE 3.5 sk#126
2.8 #23sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#12 2.4
KCrun block even CINrun D
LTKahlil Benson
LGKingsley Suamataia98%
CCreed Humphrey99%
RGTrey Smith88%
RTJaylon Moore42%
Boye Mafe LDE 4.0 tfl#220
Dexter Lawrence II LDT 4.0 tfl#233
Jonathan Allen RDT 7.0 tfl#118
Myles Murphy RDE 6.0 tfl#132
Demetrius Knight Jr. WLB 4.0 tfl#224
107 #25rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#30 139