Kansas City Chiefs
@
Cincinnati Bengals
MODEL CIN 49%
Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 16:25
· Paycor Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: KAN 3 – 3 CIN
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
KAN OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
CIN OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
Pass-heavy · 35% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
KAN OFFENSE
vs
CIN DEFENSE
+0.04 #14
Pass attack
OFF +14
#28 +0.16
+0.03 #6
Run game
OFF +23
#29 +0.09
232 #16
Pass yards
OFF +9
#25 246
107 #25
Rush yards
even
#32 147
2.8 #22
Pass pro vs rush
even
#23 2.0
38% #23
3rd down
even
#27 44%
58% #25
Red zone
even
#26 69%
CIN OFFENSE
vs
KAN DEFENSE
-0.03 #23
Pass attack
DEF +8
#15 -0.00
+0.02 #8
Run game
even
#11 -0.04
250 #7
Pass yards
even
#8 205
94 #29
Rush yards
DEF +20
#9 106
2.1 #14
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#26 1.9
44% #5
3rd down
OFF +23
#28 44%
76% #1
Red zone
even
#6 55%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
KAN PASS RUSH
vs
CIN PASS PRO
Chris Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
George Karlaftis DE
6.0 sacks '25
Drue Tranquill LB
2.0 sacks '25
2.1 #14
sacks allowed /g
#23 1.9
CIN PASS RUSH
vs
KAN PASS PRO
Myles Murphy DE
5.5 sacks '25
B.J. Hill DE
4.0 sacks '25
Jonathan Allen DE
3.5 sacks '25
2.8 #22
sacks allowed /g
#26 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
KAN
Patrick Mahomes QB
vs #28 PASS D
256.2 pass y/g 7/10
Kenneth Walker III RB
2025: SEA
vs #29 RUN D
67.0 rush y/g 5/10
Rashee Rice WR1
vs #28 PASS D
71.4 rec y/g 4/8
Xavier Worthy WR2
vs #28 PASS D
38.0 rec y/g 5/10
Tyquan Thornton WR3
vs #28 PASS D
36.5 rec y/g 5/10
Travis Kelce TE
vs #28 PASS D
50.1 rec y/g 4/10
CIN
Joe Burrow QB
vs #15 PASS D
226.1 pass y/g 5/8
Chase Brown RB
vs #11 RUN D
59.9 rush y/g 7/10
Ja'Marr Chase WR1
vs #15 PASS D
88.2 rec y/g 7/10
Tee Higgins WR2
vs #15 PASS D
56.4 rec y/g 7/10
Andrei Iosivas WR3
vs #15 PASS D
29.0 rec y/g 4/10
Mike Gesicki TE
vs #15 PASS D
25.6 rec y/g 4/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.