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Week 14 · 2026-12-10 · 20:15 · Gillette Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 1 – 0 NE
no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz    NE Behren Morton QB out · TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out · Efton Chism III WR out
NE win probability
ours 59% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 19 – NE 22 · NE -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Patriotsspread · margin, last 10
NE -5
NE −2.9
6/10
at the line
bookNEMIN
DK
CZR
Patriotstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
8/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 11
J.J. McCarthyQBOUTCoach's Decision
Demond ClaiborneRBOUTCoach's Decision
Ben YurosekTEOUTUndisclosed · IR
Kyler MurrayQBQUESTIONABLEConcussion
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
7 more · line, defense, specialists
Michael JurgensCOUTUndisclosed · IR
Nick SamacCOUTCoach's Decision
Zemaiah VaughnCBOUTCoach's Decision
Elijah WilliamsDEOUTCoach's Decision
Tyler BattyLBOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Caleb TiernanOTOUTCoach's Decision
Jakobe ThomasSOUTCoach's Decision
NE · 9
Behren MortonQBOUTCoach's Decision
TreVeyon HendersonRBOUTAnkle
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
A.J. BrownWROUTAnkle · IR
Efton Chism IIIWROUTCoach's Decision
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Ben BrownCOUTKnee
Karon PruntyCBOUTCoach's Decision
Erick HunterLBOUTCoach's Decision
Walter RouseOLOUTCoach's Decision
Brenden SchoolerSOUTUndisclosed

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE Pass yardsMIN offense · NE defense DEF +21 MIN 189 #30 NE #9 207
NE 3rd downMIN offense · NE defense DEF +20 MIN 32% #31 NE #11 39%
MIN Pass pro vs rushNE offense · MIN defense RUSH +20 NE 2.9 #24 MIN #4 2.9
NE Pass attackMIN offense · NE defense DEF +19 MIN -0.19 #30 NE #11 -0.06
NE Run block vs frontMIN offense · NE defense FRONT +18 MIN 108 #24 NE #6 101
NE Run block vs frontNE offense · MIN defense LINE +15 NE 127 #6 MIN #21 124 Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
NE Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · NE defense RUSH +8 MIN 3.5 #31 NE #23 2.0
MIN Red zoneNE offense · MIN defense DEF +7 NE 66% #9 MIN #2 49%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
MIN Run gameNE offense · MIN defense DEF +7 NE +0.01 #13 MIN #6 -0.05
MIN Red zoneMIN offense · NE defense OFF +6 MIN 61% #21 NE #27 69%
NE Run gameMIN offense · NE defense DEF +5 MIN -0.01 #20 NE #15 -0.03
MIN 3rd downNE offense · MIN defense DEF +3 NE 44% #6 MIN #3 35%
MIN Pass yardsNE offense · MIN defense DEF +2 NE 262 #4 MIN #2 178
NE Pass attackNE offense · MIN defense OFF +1 NE +0.29 #1 MIN #2 -0.15

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

NE DEFENSE MIN OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Ball-control dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units MIN offense against what it runs into

MIN OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 NE DEFENSE
-0.19 #30 Pass attack DEF +19 #11 -0.06
-0.01 #20 Run game even #15 -0.03
189 #30 Pass yards DEF +21 #9 207
108 #23 Rush yards DEF +17 #6 102
3.5 #31 Pass pro vs rush DEF +8 #23 2.0
32% #31 3rd down DEF +20 #11 39%
61% #21 Red zone even #27 69%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

MINpass pro rush +8 NEpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Harold Landry III LB 8.5 sk#23
Dre'Mont Jones DE 7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT 3.5 sk#125
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
MINrun block front +18 NErun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Christian Barmore LDE 4.0 tfl#272
Cory Durden NT 5.0 tfl#171
Milton Williams RDE 8.0 tfl#77
Elijah Ponder WLB 4.0 tfl#251
Christian Elliss LILB
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101