no sides on this game yet · the record
MIN J.J. McCarthy QB out · Demond Claiborne RB out · Ben Yurosek TE out · Kyler Murray QB q → Carson Wentz NE Behren Morton QB out · TreVeyon Henderson RB out → Corey Kiner · A.J. Brown WR out · Efton Chism III WR out
NE win probability
ours 59%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected MIN 19 – NE 22 · NE -2.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
NE -5
NE −2.9
6/10
—at the line
| book | NE | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
8/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
20 designations · as of 8:00 PM
MIN · 11
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Demond Claiborne | RB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Ben Yurosek | TE | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Kyler Murray | QB | QUESTIONABLE | Concussion |
|
Next up: Carson Wentz QB2 · 34 att · 243 pass yds · 93% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
Murray: 32 att · 192 pass yds · 99% of snaps per game, 2025 (5 g)
| |||
7 more · line, defense, specialists
| Michael Jurgens | C | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Nick Samac | C | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Zemaiah Vaughn | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Elijah Williams | DE | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Tyler Batty | LB | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Caleb Tiernan | OT | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Jakobe Thomas | S | OUT | Coach's Decision |
NE · 9
| Behren Morton | QB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| TreVeyon Henderson | RB | OUT | Ankle |
|
Next up: Corey Kiner RB3 · 3 car · 14 rush yds · 1 tgt · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (4 g)
Henderson: 11 car · 54 rush yds · 2 tgt · 46% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
| A.J. Brown | WR | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Efton Chism III | WR | OUT | Coach's Decision |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Ben Brown | C | OUT | Knee |
| Karon Prunty | CB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Erick Hunter | LB | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Walter Rouse | OL | OUT | Coach's Decision |
| Brenden Schooler | S | OUT | Undisclosed |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NE
Pass yardsMIN offense · NE defense
MIN 189 #30
NE #9 207
NE
3rd downMIN offense · NE defense
MIN 32% #31
NE #11 39%
MIN
Pass pro vs rushNE offense · MIN defense
NE 2.9 #24
MIN #4 2.9
NE
Pass attackMIN offense · NE defense
MIN -0.19 #30
NE #11 -0.06
NE
Run block vs frontMIN offense · NE defense
MIN 108 #24
NE #6 101
NE
Run block vs frontNE offense · MIN defense
NE 127 #6
MIN #21 124
Eric Wilson LILB 17.0 tfl #6
NE
Pass pro vs rushMIN offense · NE defense
MIN 3.5 #31
NE #23 2.0
MIN
Red zoneNE offense · MIN defense
NE 66% #9
MIN #2 49%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
MIN
Run gameNE offense · MIN defense
NE +0.01 #13
MIN #6 -0.05
MIN
Red zoneMIN offense · NE defense
MIN 61% #21
NE #27 69%
NE
Run gameMIN offense · NE defense
MIN -0.01 #20
NE #15 -0.03
MIN
3rd downNE offense · MIN defense
NE 44% #6
MIN #3 35%
MIN
Pass yardsNE offense · MIN defense
NE 262 #4
MIN #2 178
NE
Pass attackNE offense · MIN defense
NE +0.29 #1
MIN #2 -0.15
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIN offense against what it runs into
MIN OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NE DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +19
#11 -0.06
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +21
#9 207
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +17
#6 102
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +8
#23 2.0
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +20
#11 39%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#27 69%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MINpass pro
rush +8
NEpass rush
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sk#23
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sk#42
Milton Williams DT
3.5 sk#125
3.5 #31sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#23 2.0
MINrun block
front +18
NErun D
LTChristian Darrisaw81%
LGDonovan Jackson98%
CBlake Brandel59%
RGWill Fries99%
RTBrian O'Neill90%
Christian Barmore LDE
4.0 tfl#272
Cory Durden NT
5.0 tfl#171
Milton Williams RDE
8.0 tfl#77
Elijah Ponder WLB
4.0 tfl#251
Christian Elliss LILB
—
108 #24rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#6 101
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NE offense against what it runs into
NE OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
MIN DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#2 178
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +15
#21 124
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#4 2.9
44% #6
3rd down
even
#3 35%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NEpass pro
rush +20
MINpass rush
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sk#28
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sk#43
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sk#46
2.9 #24sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#4 2.9
NErun block
line +15
MINrun D
LTWill Campbell95%
LGAlijah Vera-Tucker—
CJared Wilson94%
RGMike Onwenu99%
RTMorgan Moses95%
Levi Drake Rodriguez LDE
8.0 tfl#69
Caleb Banks NT
—
Jalen Redmond RDE
12.0 tfl#19
Andrew Van Ginkel WLB
11.0 tfl#27
Eric Wilson LILB
17.0 tfl#6
127 #6rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#21 124