Minnesota Vikings
@
New England Patriots
MODEL NE 61%
Week 14 · 2026-12-10 · 20:15
· Gillette Stadium (outdoors)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: MIN 1 – 0 NE
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
MIN OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
Balanced · 42% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
NE OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
Balanced · 46% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
MIN OFFENSE
vs
NE DEFENSE
-0.19 #30
Pass attack
DEF +19
#11 -0.06
-0.01 #20
Run game
even
#15 -0.03
189 #30
Pass yards
DEF +21
#9 207
108 #23
Rush yards
DEF +17
#6 102
3.5 #31
Pass pro vs rush
even
#25 2.0
32% #31
3rd down
DEF +20
#11 39%
61% #21
Red zone
even
#27 69%
NE OFFENSE
vs
MIN DEFENSE
+0.29 #1
Pass attack
even
#2 -0.15
+0.01 #13
Run game
even
#6 -0.05
262 #4
Pass yards
even
#2 178
129 #6
Rush yards
OFF +15
#21 124
2.8 #24
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +20
#4 2.9
44% #6
3rd down
even
#3 35%
66% #9
Red zone
even
#2 49%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
MIN PASS RUSH
vs
NE PASS PRO
Dallas Turner LB
8.0 sacks '25
Andrew Van Ginkel OLB
7.0 sacks '25
Eric Wilson LB
6.5 sacks '25
2.8 #24
sacks allowed /g
#25 2.9
NE PASS RUSH
vs
MIN PASS PRO
Harold Landry III LB
8.5 sacks '25
Dre'Mont Jones DE
7.0 sacks '25
Milton Williams DT
6.5 sacks '25
3.5 #31
sacks allowed /g
#4 2.0
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
MIN
Kyler Murray QB
2025: ARI
vs #11 PASS D
192.4 pass y/g 3/5
Aaron Jones Sr. RB
vs #15 RUN D
45.7 rush y/g 6/10
Justin Jefferson WR1
vs #11 PASS D
61.6 rec y/g 2/10
Jordan Addison WR2
vs #11 PASS D
43.6 rec y/g 3/10
Jauan Jennings WR3
2025: SF
vs #11 PASS D
41.8 rec y/g 5/10
T.J. Hockenson TE
vs #11 PASS D
29.2 rec y/g 4/10
NE
Drake Maye QB
vs #2 PASS D
248.7 pass y/g 6/10
Rhamondre Stevenson RB
vs #6 RUN D
45.6 rush y/g 7/10
A.J. Brown WR1
2025: PHI
vs #2 PASS D
64.2 rec y/g 6/10
Romeo Doubs WR2
2025: GB
vs #2 PASS D
49.9 rec y/g 5/10
Kayshon Boutte WR3
vs #2 PASS D
39.9 rec y/g 2/10
Hunter Henry TE
vs #2 PASS D
41.9 rec y/g 5/10
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.