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New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers ★ DIV · NFC SOUTH ★

Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00 · Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NO 6 – 4 CAR
no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out    CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 53% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 21 – CAR 22 · CAR -0.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Panthersspread · margin, last 10
CAR -2.5
CAR −0.9
4/10
at the line
bookCARNO
DK
CZR
Pantherstotal · points in the game, last 10
43.5
held
3/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NO · 8
Alvin KamaraRBOUTKnee - MCL
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays  |  with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
Audric EstimeRBOUTThigh · IR
Oscar DelpTEOUTHamstring
5 more · line, defense, specialists
David Long Jr.CBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Cameron JordanDEOUTHamstring
Dillon RadunzGOUTKnee - ACL · IR
Jaylan FordLBOUTUndisclosed · IR
Lorenzo Styles Jr.SOUTCalf · IR
CAR · 2
Jalen CokerWRQUESTIONABLEAnkle
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays  |  with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Patrick Jones IILBOUTBack

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO Pass yardsCAR offense · NO defense DEF +22 CAR 194 #27 NO #5 196
NO 3rd downCAR offense · NO defense DEF +20 CAR 36% #25 NO #5 36%
CAR Red zoneNO offense · CAR defense DEF +20 NO 50% #32 CAR #12 60%
NO Run gameCAR offense · NO defense DEF +20 CAR -0.03 #22 NO #2 -0.07
NO 3rd downNO offense · CAR defense OFF +13 NO 40% #19 CAR #32 48%
NO Pass attackCAR offense · NO defense DEF +13 CAR -0.05 #25 NO #12 -0.05
NO Red zoneCAR offense · NO defense DEF +9 CAR 59% #24 NO #15 62%
CAR Run block vs frontCAR offense · NO defense LINE +8 CAR 117 #15 NO #23 127 Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
CAR Run gameNO offense · CAR defense DEF +7 NO -0.10 #31 CAR #24 +0.02
NO Pass yardsNO offense · CAR defense OFF +4 NO 237 #10 CAR #14 215
CAR Pass attackNO offense · CAR defense DEF +3 NO -0.08 #27 CAR #24 +0.11
CAR Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · NO defense LINE +3 CAR 2.0 #13 NO #16 2.2 Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
NO Run block vs frontNO offense · CAR defense LINE +2 NO 94 #30 CAR #32 148
NO Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CAR defense LINE +1 NO 3.2 #28 CAR #29 1.8

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position

CAR DEFENSE NO OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 40% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NO offense against what it runs into

NO OFFENSE 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 CAR DEFENSE
-0.08 #27 Pass attack even #24 +0.11
-0.10 #31 Run game even #24 +0.02
237 #10 Pass yards even #14 215
94 #28 Rush yards DEF +8 #20 123
2.9 #25 Pass pro vs rush even #30 1.8
40% #19 3rd down OFF +13 #32 48%
50% #32 Red zone DEF +20 #12 60%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NOpass pro even CARpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Tyrel Dodson LB 5.0 sk#67
Derrick Brown DT 5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB 5.0 sk#75
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
NOrun block even CARrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Derrick Brown LDE 5.0 tfl#199
Lee Hunter NT
Bobby Brown III RDE 3.0 tfl#307
Patrick Jones II WLB 2.0 tfl#446
Devin Lloyd LILB 6.0 tfl#160
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148