no sides on this game yet · the record
NO Alvin Kamara RB out → Kendre Miller · Audric Estime RB out · Oscar Delp TE out CAR Jalen Coker WR q → Xavier Legette
CAR win probability
ours 53%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NO 21 – CAR 22 · CAR -0.9 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
CAR -2.5
CAR −0.9
4/10
—at the line
| book | CAR | NO |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
43.5
held
3/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NO · 8
| Alvin Kamara | RB | OUT | Knee - MCL |
|
Next up: Kendre Miller RB3 · 7 car · 28 rush yds · 1 tgt · 24% of snaps per game, 2025 (7 g)
Kamara: 12 car · 43 rush yds · 4 tgt · 64% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
NO without him, 6 games last season: 56% pass · 22.5 pts · 60 plays | with him (11): 58% pass · 21.3 pts · 60 plays
| |||
| Audric Estime | RB | OUT | Thigh · IR |
| Oscar Delp | TE | OUT | Hamstring |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| David Long Jr. | CB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Cameron Jordan | DE | OUT | Hamstring |
| Dillon Radunz | G | OUT | Knee - ACL · IR |
| Jaylan Ford | LB | OUT | Undisclosed · IR |
| Lorenzo Styles Jr. | S | OUT | Calf · IR |
CAR · 2
| Jalen Coker | WR | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
|
Next up: Xavier Legette WR3 · 4 tgt · 2 rec · 24 yds · 68% of snaps per game, 2025 (15 g)
Coker: 4 tgt · 3 rec · 36 yds · 69% of snaps per game, 2025 (11 g)
CAR without him, 6 games last season: 54% pass · 30.3 pts · 63 plays | with him (11): 52% pass · 16.5 pts · 54 plays
| |||
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Patrick Jones II | LB | OUT | Back |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
NO
Pass yardsCAR offense · NO defense
CAR 194 #27
NO #5 196
NO
3rd downCAR offense · NO defense
CAR 36% #25
NO #5 36%
CAR
Red zoneNO offense · CAR defense
NO 50% #32
CAR #12 60%
NO
Run gameCAR offense · NO defense
CAR -0.03 #22
NO #2 -0.07
NO
3rd downNO offense · CAR defense
NO 40% #19
CAR #32 48%
NO
Pass attackCAR offense · NO defense
CAR -0.05 #25
NO #12 -0.05
NO
Red zoneCAR offense · NO defense
CAR 59% #24
NO #15 62%
CAR
Run block vs frontCAR offense · NO defense
CAR 117 #15
NO #23 127
Cameron Jordan LDE 15.0 tfl #9
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
CAR
Run gameNO offense · CAR defense
NO -0.10 #31
CAR #24 +0.02
NO
Pass yardsNO offense · CAR defense
NO 237 #10
CAR #14 215
CAR
Pass attackNO offense · CAR defense
NO -0.08 #27
CAR #24 +0.11
CAR
Pass pro vs rushCAR offense · NO defense
CAR 2.0 #13
NO #16 2.2
Cameron Jordan LB 10.5 sk #13
NO
Run block vs frontNO offense · CAR defense
NO 94 #30
CAR #32 148
NO
Pass pro vs rushNO offense · CAR defense
NO 3.2 #28
CAR #29 1.8
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 40% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NO offense against what it runs into
NO OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CAR DEFENSE
-0.08 #27
Pass attack
even
#24 +0.11
-0.10 #31
Run game
even
#24 +0.02
237 #10
Pass yards
even
#14 215
94 #28
Rush yards
DEF +8
#20 123
2.9 #25
Pass pro vs rush
even
#30 1.8
40% #19
3rd down
OFF +13
#32 48%
50% #32
Red zone
DEF +20
#12 60%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NOpass pro
even
CARpass rush
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Tyrel Dodson LB
5.0 sk#67
Derrick Brown DT
5.0 sk#78
Jaelan Phillips LB
5.0 sk#75
3.2 #28sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#29 1.8
NOrun block
even
CARrun D
LTKelvin Banks Jr.95%
LGDavid Edwards93% BUF
CErik McCoy96%
RGCesar Ruiz92%
RTTaliese Fuaga97%
Derrick Brown LDE
5.0 tfl#199
Lee Hunter NT
—
Bobby Brown III RDE
3.0 tfl#307
Patrick Jones II WLB
2.0 tfl#446
Devin Lloyd LILB
6.0 tfl#160
94 #30rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#32 148
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CAR offense against what it runs into
CAR OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
NO DEFENSE
-0.05 #25
Pass attack
DEF +13
#12 -0.05
-0.03 #22
Run game
DEF +20
#2 -0.07
194 #27
Pass yards
DEF +22
#5 196
116 #19
Rush yards
even
#19 121
2.1 #13
Pass pro vs rush
even
#11 2.6
36% #25
3rd down
DEF +20
#5 36%
59% #24
Red zone
DEF +9
#15 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CARpass pro
even
NOpass rush
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Cameron Jordan LB
10.5 sk#13
Chase Young DE
10.0 sk#16
Carl Granderson DE
6.0 sk#51
2.0 #13sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#16 2.2
CARrun block
line +8
NOrun D
LTRasheed Walker93% GB
LGDamien Lewis100%
CLuke Fortner61% NO
RGRobert Hunt83%
RTMonroe Freeling—
Cameron Jordan LDE
15.0 tfl#9
Davon Godchaux NT
2.0 tfl#380
Colby Wooden RDE
6.0 tfl#149
Carl Granderson WLB
11.0 tfl#33
Kaden Elliss LILB
10.0 tfl#46
117 #15rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#23 127