no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 71%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 19 – SEA 27 · SEA -7.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SEA -7.5
SEA −7.3
5/10
—at the line
| book | SEA | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
45.5
held
4/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Roy Robertson-Harris | DT | OUT | Achilles · IR |
SEA · 4
| Tory Horton | WR | OUT | Hamstring |
| Sam Darnold | QB | DOUBTFUL | Lower Body |
|
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
| |||
2 more · line, defense, specialists
| Nick Emmanwori | S | OUT | Ankle |
| Ty Okada | S | OUT | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA
Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · NYG defense
SEA 1.7 #6
NYG #31 1.7
Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
SEA
Red zoneNYG offense · SEA defense
NYG 59% #23
SEA #4 54%
SEA
Run block vs frontSEA offense · NYG defense
SEA 120 #11
NYG #28 134
Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
SEA
3rd downNYG offense · SEA defense
NYG 40% #17
SEA #1 33%
SEA
Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · SEA defense
NYG 2.7 #22
SEA #6 2.8
SEA
Pass attackNYG offense · SEA defense
NYG -0.01 #19
SEA #8 -0.10
SEA
Pass yardsNYG offense · SEA defense
NYG 218 #21
SEA #12 213
SEA
Pass attackSEA offense · NYG defense
SEA +0.11 #8
NYG #16 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
SEA
Pass yardsSEA offense · NYG defense
SEA 239 #9
NYG #17 230
SEA
Run gameSEA offense · NYG defense
SEA -0.05 #26
NYG #32 +0.17
SEA
3rd downSEA offense · NYG defense
SEA 43% #10
NYG #14 40%
SEA
Red zoneSEA offense · NYG defense
SEA 62% #18
NYG #22 68%
SEA
Run gameNYG offense · SEA defense
NYG +0.04 #5
SEA #1 -0.15
SEA
Run block vs frontNYG offense · SEA defense
NYG 133 #5
SEA #4 94
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units NYG offense against what it runs into
NYG OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
SEA DEFENSE
NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.
-0.01 #19
Pass attack
DEF +11
#8 -0.10
+0.04 #5
Run game
even
#1 -0.15
218 #21
Pass yards
DEF +9
#12 213
129 #5
Rush yards
even
#3 92
2.8 #23
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +15
#8 2.8
40% #17
3rd down
DEF +16
#1 33%
59% #23
Red zone
DEF +19
#4 54%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
NYGpass pro
rush +16
SEApass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Byron Murphy II DT
7.0 sk#40
Leonard Williams DE
7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB
6.0 sk#53
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
NYGrun block
even
SEArun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa—
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Leonard Williams LDE
9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT
7.0 tfl#115
Jarran Reed RDE
3.0 tfl#304
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB
11.0 tfl#29
Drake Thomas LILB
10.0 tfl#36
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Run-heavy · 49% run
Ball-control
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SEA offense against what it runs into
SEA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC NYG DEFENSE
SEA offence: Klint Kubiak called these → Brian Fleury calls it now.
NYG defence: Shane Bowen called these → Dennard Wilson calls it now.
+0.11 #8
Pass attack
OFF +8
#16 +0.03
-0.05 #26
Run game
even
#32 +0.17
239 #9
Pass yards
OFF +8
#17 230
123 #11
Rush yards
OFF +20
#31 145
1.6 #5
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#17 2.2
43% #10
3rd down
even
#14 40%
62% #18
Red zone
even
#22 68%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SEApass pro
line +25
NYGpass rush
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Brian Burns LB
16.5 sk#2
Abdul Carter LB
4.0 sk#102
Darius Alexander DT
3.5 sk#118
1.7 #6sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#31 1.7
SEArun block
line +17
NYGrun D
LTCharles Cross94%
LGGrey Zabel99%
CJalen Sundell92%
RGAnthony Bradford97%
RTAbraham Lucas100%
Shelby Harris LDE
7.0 tfl#109
DJ Reader NT
—
Chauncey Golston RDE
5.0 tfl#206
Brian Burns WLB
22.0 tfl#3
Arvell Reese LILB
—
120 #11rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#28 134