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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 16:25 · Lumen Field · outdoors · fieldturf
· Last 5 yrs H2H: NYG 1 – 2 SEA
no sides on this game yet · the record
SEA Tory Horton WR out · Sam Darnold QB d → Drew Lock
SEA win probability
ours 71% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected NYG 19 – SEA 27 · SEA -7.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Seahawksspread · margin, last 10
SEA -7.5
SEA −7.3
5/10
at the line
bookSEANYG
DK
CZR
Seahawkstotal · points in the game, last 10
45.5
held
4/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

5 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
NYG · 1
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Roy Robertson-HarrisDTOUTAchilles · IR
SEA · 4
Tory HortonWROUTHamstring
Sam DarnoldQBDOUBTFULLower Body
Next up: Drew Lock QB2 · 1 att · 5 pass yds · 13% of snaps per game, 2025 (3 g)
Darnold: 28 att · 238 pass yds · 96% of snaps per game, 2025 (17 g)
2 more · line, defense, specialists
Nick EmmanworiSOUTAnkle
Ty OkadaSOUTHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
SEA Pass pro vs rushSEA offense · NYG defense LINE +25 SEA 1.7 #6 NYG #31 1.7 Brian Burns LB 16.5 sk #2
SEA Red zoneNYG offense · SEA defense DEF +19 NYG 59% #23 SEA #4 54%
SEA Run block vs frontSEA offense · NYG defense LINE +17 SEA 120 #11 NYG #28 134 Brian Burns WLB 22.0 tfl #3
SEA 3rd downNYG offense · SEA defense DEF +16 NYG 40% #17 SEA #1 33%
SEA Pass pro vs rushNYG offense · SEA defense RUSH +16 NYG 2.7 #22 SEA #6 2.8
SEA Pass attackNYG offense · SEA defense DEF +11 NYG -0.01 #19 SEA #8 -0.10
SEA Pass yardsNYG offense · SEA defense DEF +9 NYG 218 #21 SEA #12 213
SEA Pass attackSEA offense · NYG defense OFF +8 SEA +0.11 #8 NYG #16 +0.03
6 more comparisons, gap under 8
SEA Pass yardsSEA offense · NYG defense OFF +8 SEA 239 #9 NYG #17 230
SEA Run gameSEA offense · NYG defense OFF +6 SEA -0.05 #26 NYG #32 +0.17
SEA 3rd downSEA offense · NYG defense OFF +4 SEA 43% #10 NYG #14 40%
SEA Red zoneSEA offense · NYG defense OFF +4 SEA 62% #18 NYG #22 68%
SEA Run gameNYG offense · SEA defense DEF +4 NYG +0.04 #5 SEA #1 -0.15
SEA Run block vs frontNYG offense · SEA defense FRONT +1 NYG 133 #5 SEA #4 94

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since

SEA DEFENSE NYG OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 47% run Avg pace dual-threat QB
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units NYG offense against what it runs into

NYG OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 SEA DEFENSE

NYG offence: Mike Kafka called these → Matt Nagy calls it now.

-0.01 #19 Pass attack DEF +11 #8 -0.10
+0.04 #5 Run game even #1 -0.15
218 #21 Pass yards DEF +9 #12 213
129 #5 Rush yards even #3 92
2.8 #23 Pass pro vs rush DEF +15 #8 2.8
40% #17 3rd down DEF +16 #1 33%
59% #23 Red zone DEF +19 #4 54%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

NYGpass pro rush +16 SEApass rush
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Byron Murphy II DT 7.0 sk#40
Leonard Williams DE 7.0 sk#38
DeMarcus Lawrence LB 6.0 sk#53
2.7 #22sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#6 2.8
NYGrun block even SEArun D
LTAndrew Thomas91%
LGJon Runyan100%
CJohn Michael Schmitz Jr.91%
RGFrancis Mauigoa
RTJermaine Eluemunor100%
Leonard Williams LDE 9.0 tfl#64
Byron Murphy II NT 7.0 tfl#115
Jarran Reed RDE 3.0 tfl#304
DeMarcus Lawrence WLB 11.0 tfl#29
Drake Thomas LILB 10.0 tfl#36
133 #5rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#4 94