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Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers ★ DIV · NFC WEST ★

Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 16:25 · Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: LAR 5 – 6 SF
no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 54% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 24 – SF 25 · SF -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
49ersspread · margin, last 10
SF +2
SF −1.3
8/10
at the line
bookSFLAR
DK
CZR
49erstotal · points in the game, last 10
49.5
held
6/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

7 designations · as of 11:45 PM
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Myles GarrettDEOUTKnee
Nate LandmanLBQUESTIONABLEShoulder
Omar SpeightsLBQUESTIONABLEHip
Kam CurlSQUESTIONABLEAnkle
SF · 3
De'Zhaun StriblingWRDOUBTFULAnkle
Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g)
Jake TongesTEQUESTIONABLEKnee
1 more · line, defense, specialists
Alfred CollinsDTOUTKnee · IR

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · SF defense LINE +31 LAR 1.1 #1 SF #32 0.9
LAR Pass attackLAR offense · SF defense OFF +23 LAR +0.23 #2 SF #25 +0.11
LAR Pass yardsLAR offense · SF defense OFF +21 LAR 277 #2 SF #23 242
SF Pass pro vs rushSF offense · LAR defense LINE +16 SF 1.3 #2 LAR #18 2.2 Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAR Run gameLAR offense · SF defense OFF +15 LAR +0.03 #7 SF #22 +0.01
SF Pass yardsSF offense · LAR defense OFF +14 SF 254 #6 LAR #20 235
LAR Red zoneLAR offense · SF defense OFF +8 LAR 68% #6 SF #14 62%
LAR Run gameSF offense · LAR defense DEF +6 SF -0.00 #18 LAR #12 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SF 3rd downSF offense · LAR defense OFF +5 SF 51% #1 LAR #6 36%
LAR 3rd downLAR offense · SF defense OFF +4 LAR 40% #16 SF #20 41%
SF Pass attackSF offense · LAR defense OFF +3 SF +0.16 #7 LAR #10 -0.07
LAR Run block vs frontLAR offense · SF defense LINE +2 LAR 126 #8 SF #10 110
LAR Red zoneSF offense · LAR defense DEF +0 SF 68% #8 LAR #8 56%
LAR Run block vs frontSF offense · LAR defense FRONT +0 SF 114 #20 LAR #20 120

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

SF DEFENSE LAR OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 42% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units LAR offense against what it runs into

LAR OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC SF DEFENSE

LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.

+0.23 #2 Pass attack OFF +23 #25 +0.11
+0.03 #7 Run game OFF +15 #22 +0.01
277 #2 Pass yards OFF +21 #23 242
127 #7 Rush yards even #11 108
1.4 #2 Pass pro vs rush OFF +30 #32 1.2
40% #16 3rd down even #20 41%
68% #6 Red zone OFF +8 #14 62%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

LARpass pro line +31 SFpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Osa Odighizuwa DT 3.5 sk#112
Sam Okuayinonu DT 3.0 sk#159
Keion White DE 1.5 sk#262
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
LARrun block even SFrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Keion White LDE 2.0 tfl#422
Osa Odighizuwa LDT 6.0 tfl#132
Gracen Halton RDT
Nick Bosa RDE 4.0 tfl#221
Dre Greenlaw WLB 2.0 tfl#404
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110