no sides on this game yet · the record
SF De'Zhaun Stribling WR d → Demarcus Robinson · Jake Tonges TE q
SF win probability
ours 54%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected LAR 24 – SF 25 · SF -1.3 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
SF +2
SF −1.3
8/10
—at the line
| book | SF | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
49.5
held
6/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
7 designations · as of 11:45 PM
LAR · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Myles Garrett | DE | OUT | Knee |
| Nate Landman | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Shoulder |
| Omar Speights | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hip |
| Kam Curl | S | QUESTIONABLE | Ankle |
SF · 3
| De'Zhaun Stribling | WR | DOUBTFUL | Ankle |
| Next up: Demarcus Robinson WR4 · 2 tgt · 2 rec · 20 yds · 47% of snaps per game, 2025 (14 g) | |||
| Jake Tonges | TE | QUESTIONABLE | Knee |
1 more · line, defense, specialists
| Alfred Collins | DT | OUT | Knee · IR |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
LAR
Pass pro vs rushLAR offense · SF defense
LAR 1.1 #1
SF #32 0.9
LAR
Pass attackLAR offense · SF defense
LAR +0.23 #2
SF #25 +0.11
LAR
Pass yardsLAR offense · SF defense
LAR 277 #2
SF #23 242
SF
Pass pro vs rushSF offense · LAR defense
SF 1.3 #2
LAR #18 2.2
Myles Garrett DE 23.0 sk #1Byron Young LB 12.0 sk #8
LAR
Run gameLAR offense · SF defense
LAR +0.03 #7
SF #22 +0.01
SF
Pass yardsSF offense · LAR defense
SF 254 #6
LAR #20 235
LAR
Red zoneLAR offense · SF defense
LAR 68% #6
SF #14 62%
LAR
Run gameSF offense · LAR defense
SF -0.00 #18
LAR #12 -0.04
6 more comparisons, gap under 6
SF
3rd downSF offense · LAR defense
SF 51% #1
LAR #6 36%
LAR
3rd downLAR offense · SF defense
LAR 40% #16
SF #20 41%
SF
Pass attackSF offense · LAR defense
SF +0.16 #7
LAR #10 -0.07
LAR
Run block vs frontLAR offense · SF defense
LAR 126 #8
SF #10 110
LAR
Red zoneSF offense · LAR defense
SF 68% #8
LAR #8 56%
LAR
Run block vs frontSF offense · LAR defense
SF 114 #20
LAR #20 120
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units LAR offense against what it runs into
LAR OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC SF DEFENSE
LAR offence: Mike LaFleur called these → Nate Scheelhaase calls it now.
SF defence: Robert Saleh called these → Raheem Morris calls it now.
+0.23 #2
Pass attack
OFF +23
#25 +0.11
+0.03 #7
Run game
OFF +15
#22 +0.01
277 #2
Pass yards
OFF +21
#23 242
127 #7
Rush yards
even
#11 108
1.4 #2
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +30
#32 1.2
40% #16
3rd down
even
#20 41%
68% #6
Red zone
OFF +8
#14 62%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
LARpass pro
line +31
SFpass rush
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Osa Odighizuwa DT
3.5 sk#112
Sam Okuayinonu DT
3.0 sk#159
Keion White DE
1.5 sk#262
1.1 #1sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#32 0.9
LARrun block
even
SFrun D
LTAlaric Jackson99%
LGSteve Avila86%
CColeman Shelton99%
RGKevin Dotson92%
RTWarren McClendon Jr.65%
Keion White LDE
2.0 tfl#422
Osa Odighizuwa LDT
6.0 tfl#132
Gracen Halton RDT
—
Nick Bosa RDE
4.0 tfl#221
Dre Greenlaw WLB
2.0 tfl#404
126 #8rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#10 110
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position
Balanced · 43% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units SF offense against what it runs into
SF OFFENSE
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
LAR DEFENSE
+0.16 #7
Pass attack
even
#10 -0.07
-0.00 #18
Run game
even
#12 -0.04
254 #6
Pass yards
OFF +14
#20 235
107 #24
Rush yards
DEF +12
#12 111
1.6 #6
Pass pro vs rush
even
#9 2.8
51% #1
3rd down
even
#6 36%
68% #8
Red zone
even
#8 56%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
SFpass pro
line +16
LARpass rush
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Myles Garrett DE
23.0 sk#1
Byron Young LB
12.0 sk#8
Kobie Turner DE
7.0 sk#44
1.3 #2sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#18 2.2
SFrun block
even
LARrun D
LTTrent Williams93%
LGConnor Colby44%
CJake Brendel94%
RGDominick Puni99%
RTColton McKivitz99%
Kobie Turner LDE
9.0 tfl#60
Poona Ford NT
4.0 tfl#223
Aaron Donald RDE
—
Byron Young WLB
12.0 tfl#25
Nate Landman LILB
8.0 tfl#83
114 #20rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#20 120