Tennessee Titans
@
Detroit Lions
MODEL DET 75%
Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00
· Ford Field (dome)
· fieldturf
Last 5 yrs H2H: TEN 0 – 1 DET
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Vegas line (context)
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Game total O/U
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Final (away–home)
MODEL is the power-ratings spine — preseason, prior-only until 2026 snaps exist. Calibrated most-likely, no proven edge vs the close; the book number is shown beside it on purpose. Not a pick.
On the Field 2025 unit strength
TEN OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
Balanced · 37% run
Ball-control
DET OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
Balanced · 41% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Position groups are shaded by team-unit strength (2025 pass/rush EPA, offense and defense) — not individual players. The defensive front you see is the wall this offense has to run into.
Unit Matchups 2025 · rank of 32
TEN OFFENSE
vs
DET DEFENSE
-0.22 #31
Pass attack
DEF +17
#14 -0.01
-0.06 #27
Run game
DEF +9
#18 -0.01
191 #29
Pass yards
DEF +8
#21 237
93 #30
Rush yards
DEF +16
#14 115
3.3 #27
Pass pro vs rush
DEF +22
#5 2.8
32% #32
3rd down
DEF +23
#9 37%
61% #20
Red zone
even
#23 68%
DET OFFENSE
vs
TEN DEFENSE
+0.17 #4
Pass attack
OFF +25
#29 +0.17
-0.04 #24
Run game
even
#23 +0.01
269 #3
Pass yards
OFF +23
#26 248
120 #14
Rush yards
even
#15 115
2.3 #18
Pass pro vs rush
even
#14 2.5
39% #20
3rd down
even
#21 42%
70% #5
Red zone
OFF +25
#30 71%
Rank gaps are where games tilt — a bottom-8 defense meeting a top-8 offense is the mismatch worth knowing about. 2025 regular-season data; EPA from play-by-play. Context, not a pick.
Pressure Matchup sacks · 2025
TEN PASS RUSH
vs
DET PASS PRO
Jeffery Simmons DT
11.0 sacks '25
John Franklin-Myers DE
7.5 sacks '25
Jacob Martin DE
5.5 sacks '25
2.3 #18
sacks allowed /g
#5 2.5
DET PASS RUSH
vs
TEN PASS PRO
Aidan Hutchinson DE
14.5 sacks '25
Jack Campbell LB
5.0 sacks '25
Derrick Barnes LB
4.0 sacks '25
3.3 #27
sacks allowed /g
#14 2.8
A top pass rush against a line that already leaks sacks is where pressure rate breaks a game open — the left rank is the blocking side, the right is the rush.
Position Matchups 2025 per-game · last-10 form
TEN
Cam Ward QB
vs #14 PASS D
186.4 pass y/g 5/10
Tony Pollard RB
vs #18 RUN D
63.6 rush y/g 4/10
Carnell Tate WR1
vs #14 PASS D
— rec y/g
Wan'Dale Robinson WR2
2025: NYG
vs #14 PASS D
63.4 rec y/g 3/10
Calvin Ridley WR3
vs #14 PASS D
43.3 rec y/g 2/7
Gunnar Helm TE
vs #14 PASS D
22.3 rec y/g 6/10
DET
Jared Goff QB
vs #29 PASS D
268.5 pass y/g 7/10
Jahmyr Gibbs RB
vs #23 RUN D
71.9 rush y/g 3/10
Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1
vs #29 PASS D
82.4 rec y/g 5/10
Jameson Williams WR2
vs #29 PASS D
65.7 rec y/g 8/10
Isaac TeSlaa WR3
vs #29 PASS D
17.1 rec y/g 5/10
Sam LaPorta TE
vs #29 PASS D
54.3 rec y/g 4/9
Dot strips are each player's last 10 games against his own 2025 average — form, not a prop grade; we hold no lines yet. Grey team tags mark stats earned elsewhere. No pick.