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Week 14 · 2026-12-13 · 13:00 · Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass
· Last 5 yrs H2H: CHI 0 – 1 MIA
no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
MIA win probability
ours 44% book
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 25 – MIA 23 · CHI -2.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Game · Passing · Rushing · Receiving · Touchdowns · Kicking
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
Dolphinsspread · margin, last 10
MIA +5
MIA +2.1
5/10
at the line
bookMIACHI
DK
CZR
Dolphinstotal · points in the game, last 10
46.5
held
2/10
held this week
bookoverunder
DK
CZR
No player props posted for this game yet.

Injury report

10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CHI · 6
Tyson BagentQBOUTBack
5 more · line, defense, specialists
Dallis FlowersCBOUTLeg · IR
Kyler GordonCBOUTCalf
Shemar TurnerDTOUTKnee - ACL
Ozzy TrapiloOTOUTKnee
Xavier WoodsSOUTGroin
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
Kenneth GrantDTOUTLeg · IR
Kyle LouisLBOUTKnee
Trey MooreLBOUTAnkle · IR
Ronnie Harrison Jr.LBQUESTIONABLEHamstring

Our numbers vs the book

0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
#marketwhooursbookgapsidehow
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.

Mismatches

2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · MIA defense LINE +26 CHI 1.5 #4 MIA #30 1.8
CHI Run block vs frontCHI offense · MIA defense LINE +24 CHI 161 #2 MIA #26 132 Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15
CHI Run gameCHI offense · MIA defense OFF +23 CHI +0.08 #4 MIA #27 +0.04
CHI Pass attackCHI offense · MIA defense OFF +16 CHI +0.08 #10 MIA #26 +0.13
CHI Red zoneCHI offense · MIA defense OFF +9 CHI 66% #10 MIA #19 66%
MIA Run block vs frontMIA offense · CHI defense LINE +8 MIA 115 #19 CHI #27 133
CHI 3rd downCHI offense · MIA defense OFF +7 CHI 43% #11 MIA #18 41%
CHI 3rd downMIA offense · CHI defense DEF +7 MIA 35% #26 CHI #19 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
CHI Pass yardsCHI offense · MIA defense OFF +6 CHI 235 #12 MIA #18 231
MIA Red zoneMIA offense · CHI defense OFF +4 MIA 64% #14 CHI #18 65%
CHI Pass yardsMIA offense · CHI defense DEF +3 MIA 195 #25 CHI #22 239
CHI Pass attackMIA offense · CHI defense DEF +2 MIA -0.01 #20 CHI #18 +0.03
CHI Run gameMIA offense · CHI defense DEF +2 MIA -0.03 #21 CHI #19 +0.00
CHI Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · CHI defense RUSH +1 MIA 2.7 #21 CHI #20 2.0

The matchup

who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.

The matchup in full

field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
Jump to

On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since

MIA DEFENSE CHI OFFENSE CB S S CB LB LB LB DE DT DT DE WR WR LT LG C RG RT TE WR QB RB
Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Unit strength weaker · avg · stronger

Units CHI offense against what it runs into

CHI OFFENSE OLD OC 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 OLD DC MIA DEFENSE

CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.

+0.08 #10 Pass attack OFF +16 #26 +0.13
+0.08 #4 Run game OFF +23 #27 +0.04
235 #12 Pass yards even #18 231
144 #3 Rush yards OFF +23 #26 132
1.4 #3 Pass pro vs rush OFF +12 #15 2.3
43% #11 3rd down even #18 41%
66% #10 Red zone OFF +9 #19 66%

Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front

CHIpass pro line +26 MIApass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Zach Sieler DE 5.5 sk#59
Clelin Ferrell DE 4.0 sk#107
Chop Robinson LB 4.0 sk#108
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
CHIrun block line +24 MIArun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Chop Robinson LDE 4.0 tfl#261
Jordan Phillips LDT 2.0 tfl#449
Zach Sieler RDT 10.0 tfl#41
Josh Uche RDE 2.0 tfl#364
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl#15
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132