no sides on this game yet · the record
CHI Tyson Bagent QB out
MIA win probability
ours 44%
book —
no book price captured for this game yet — nothing to compare against
projected CHI 25 – MIA 23 · CHI -2.1 · not a pick ·
how this works
MODEL is the power-ratings spine. The projected score, the spread and the win probability are one quantity in three units. The book's number is beside it on purpose: the gap is the product, and nothing here has a proven edge against the closing line. Our total is held this week: league scoring is still being estimated from a handful of games, so no total is claimed. The bars on every row are the last ten games the man (or the home team) has a box score for, drawn against today's line; the gold tick is our number on the same scale. Our side is where our number sits against the line, written down every refresh and locked at its last showing before kickoff at the best price we held; the side you see before the game is the side that gets graded. The model behind it has not beaten the closing line in testing, so a side is a lean, not an edge. Anytime TD can only be taken yes, so our side is YES only when our chance beats the chance the price implies. Kicking is graded by its own register, which locks the first showing. Tap a price to add it to a ticket.
Gamelinelast 10 vs the line · ours ▸hitsidebest
MIA +5
MIA +2.1
5/10
—at the line
| book | MIA | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
46.5
held
2/10
—held this week
| book | over | under |
|---|---|---|
| DK | ||
| CZR |
No player props posted for this game yet.
Injury report
10 designations · as of 11:45 PM Sep 14
CHI · 6
| Tyson Bagent | QB | OUT | Back |
5 more · line, defense, specialists
| Dallis Flowers | CB | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyler Gordon | CB | OUT | Calf |
| Shemar Turner | DT | OUT | Knee - ACL |
| Ozzy Trapilo | OT | OUT | Knee |
| Xavier Woods | S | OUT | Groin |
MIA · 4
4 more · line, defense, specialists
| Kenneth Grant | DT | OUT | Leg · IR |
| Kyle Louis | LB | OUT | Knee |
| Trey Moore | LB | OUT | Ankle · IR |
| Ronnie Harrison Jr. | LB | QUESTIONABLE | Hamstring |
Our numbers vs the book
0 legs priced
Top disagreements · probability points
| # | market | who | ours | book | gap | side | how |
|---|
Every price is the book that posted it, de-vigged two-way where both sides exist. The gap is |our published number − the book's|, in probability points, the same rule that ranks the front page. Break-even at −110 is 52.4%. Not a pick.
Mismatches
2025 rank gaps, both offenses · biggest first · a top-8 unit meeting a bottom-8 unit is the one worth knowing about
CHI
Pass pro vs rushCHI offense · MIA defense
CHI 1.5 #4
MIA #30 1.8
CHI
Run block vs frontCHI offense · MIA defense
CHI 161 #2
MIA #26 132
Jordyn Brooks WLB 13.0 tfl #15
CHI
Run gameCHI offense · MIA defense
CHI +0.08 #4
MIA #27 +0.04
CHI
Pass attackCHI offense · MIA defense
CHI +0.08 #10
MIA #26 +0.13
CHI
Red zoneCHI offense · MIA defense
CHI 66% #10
MIA #19 66%
MIA
Run block vs frontMIA offense · CHI defense
MIA 115 #19
CHI #27 133
CHI
3rd downCHI offense · MIA defense
CHI 43% #11
MIA #18 41%
CHI
3rd downMIA offense · CHI defense
MIA 35% #26
CHI #19 41%
6 more comparisons, gap under 7
CHI
Pass yardsCHI offense · MIA defense
CHI 235 #12
MIA #18 231
MIA
Red zoneMIA offense · CHI defense
MIA 64% #14
CHI #18 65%
CHI
Pass yardsMIA offense · CHI defense
MIA 195 #25
CHI #22 239
CHI
Pass attackMIA offense · CHI defense
MIA -0.01 #20
CHI #18 +0.03
CHI
Run gameMIA offense · CHI defense
MIA -0.03 #21
CHI #19 +0.00
CHI
Pass pro vs rushMIA offense · CHI defense
MIA 2.7 #21
CHI #20 2.0
The matchup
who calls it · the four battles · the men
The matchup profile for this game has not been built yet — it is rebuilt hourly once a kickoff is near.
The matchup in full
field · units · trenches, one offense at a time
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC and DC since
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units CHI offense against what it runs into
CHI OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
OLD DC MIA DEFENSE
CHI offence: Declan Doyle called these → Press Taylor calls it now.
MIA defence: Anthony Weaver called these → Sean Duggan calls it now.
+0.08 #10
Pass attack
OFF +16
#26 +0.13
+0.08 #4
Run game
OFF +23
#27 +0.04
235 #12
Pass yards
even
#18 231
144 #3
Rush yards
OFF +23
#26 132
1.4 #3
Pass pro vs rush
OFF +12
#15 2.3
43% #11
3rd down
even
#18 41%
66% #10
Red zone
OFF +9
#19 66%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
CHIpass pro
line +26
MIApass rush
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Zach Sieler DE
5.5 sk#59
Clelin Ferrell DE
4.0 sk#107
Chop Robinson LB
4.0 sk#108
1.5 #4sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#30 1.8
CHIrun block
line +24
MIArun D
LTBraxton Jones54%
LGJoe Thuney100%
CGarrett Bradbury98% NE
RGJonah Jackson98%
RTDarnell Wright99%
Chop Robinson LDE
4.0 tfl#261
Jordan Phillips LDT
2.0 tfl#449
Zach Sieler RDT
10.0 tfl#41
Josh Uche RDE
2.0 tfl#364
Jordyn Brooks WLB
13.0 tfl#15
161 #2rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#26 132
On the field 2026 (1 g) blended with 2025 unit strength · context, not a model input · tap a position · new OC since
Balanced · 45% run
Ball-control
dual-threat QB
Unit strength
weaker · avg · stronger
Units MIA offense against what it runs into
MIA OFFENSE OLD OC
2026 (1 g) blended with 2025
CHI DEFENSE
MIA offence: Frank Smith called these → Bobby Slowik calls it now.
-0.01 #20
Pass attack
even
#18 +0.03
-0.03 #21
Run game
even
#19 +0.00
195 #25
Pass yards
even
#22 239
120 #13
Rush yards
OFF +14
#27 135
2.2 #16
Pass pro vs rush
even
#22 2.1
35% #26
3rd down
even
#19 41%
64% #14
Red zone
even
#18 65%
Trenches pass pro vs the rush · run block vs the front
MIApass pro
even
CHIpass rush
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Montez Sweat DE
10.0 sk#17
Austin Booker DE
4.5 sk#83
Neville Gallimore DT
3.5 sk#114
2.7 #21sacks allowed /g · sacks made /g#20 2.0
MIArun block
line +8
CHIrun D
LTPatrick Paul99%
LGKadyn Proctor—
CAaron Brewer98%
RGJonah Savaiinaea100%
RTAustin Jackson94%
Montez Sweat LDE
13.0 tfl#17
Grady Jarrett LDT
1.0 tfl#625
Kentavius Street RDT
3.0 tfl#285
Dayo Odeyingbo RDE
2.0 tfl#448
Devin Bush WLB
7.0 tfl#109
115 #19rush yds /g · rush yds allowed /g#27 133